860
FXUS61 KALY 162345
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
745 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong to severe thunderstorms will move across the
Mohawk Valley, upper Hudson Valley, and southern Adirondacks this
afternoon and early evening. A cold front will bring additional
scattered thunderstorms Wednesday along with continued warm and
humid conditions. Cooler and much less humid conditions along with
fair weather will follow in the wake of the front for Thursday into
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is progressing eastward
across Upstate New York. SPC mesoanalysis indicates 1500-2000
J/kg MLCAPE is in place ahead of the convection. WoFS guidance
has this line persisting as it moves east with a medium to high
chance of producing wind damage reports through 6 PM. Timing of
the line remains consistent with thunderstorms moving through
the western Mohawk Valley through 5PM, reaching the Capital
Region/upper Hudson Valley/southern Adirondacks between 4PM-6PM,
and be exiting the eastern portions of the CWA between 7PM-9PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Another active day is forecast on Wednesday, with a low to
medium chance of isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms. The
highest likelihood of severe thunderstorms will be from the
Capital Region south and east where 1000-1500 J/kg of SBCAPE is
forecast to exist in conjunction with 0-6 km shear in excess of
30 knots. 12z HREF guidance indicates that convection will begin
by early afternoon and move east through the afternoon hours. Damaging
winds will be the primary hazard with any strong to severe
thunderstorm that develop.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The long term period will be dry with seasonable temperatures
thanks to surface high pressure below northwest 500 hPa flow.
Highs each day will be in the 70s and 80s with lows in the 50s
and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Through 00z Thursday...Lingering showers and thunderstorms will be a
concern mainly for KPSF over the next hour, where brief drops to
IFR/LIFR conditions will be possible heavy downpours.

VFR conditions should prevail for the terminals through this
evening, though latest satellite imagery does show some scattered
ceilings around 2000-3000 ft moving into the area from the west
which could produce some brief drops to MVFR at times. These
ceilings should clear out overnight as drier air buildings into the
lower levels. Late tonight into Wednesday morning, fog formation
remains possible at KGFL/KPSF as winds become light & variable and
RHs remain elevated from heavy rains today. Have maintained MVFR
visibilities in this TAF for those locations.

By Wednesday morning, any fog that develops should quickly burn off
with the sunrise, allowing VFR conditions to prevail for the
remainder of the period. Have opted to at add PROB30 groups for all
terminals late in the period as chances of showers and storms will
increase across the region.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gant/KL
NEAR TERM...Humphrey
SHORT TERM...Humphrey
LONG TERM...Humphrey
AVIATION...Speck