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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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553 FXUS61 KAKQ 140140 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 940 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A weak frontal boundary will remain over the region into early this evening, and will wash out across the area tonight. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will continue into early this evening, then end tonight. Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms are possible Sunday, followed by a mainly dry and hot pattern Monday through most of Wednesday. An unsettled period returns late Wednesday through Saturday, as a cold front stalls across the area. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... As of 940 PM EDT Saturday... Key Message: - Humid tonight with locally dense fog along the Atlantic coast of Maryland. A very weak stationary front lingers near the coast, with mostly dry but very humid conditions (widespread mid-upper 70s dew points). There are a couple of showers/tstms in NE NC, but these should dissipate in the next few hours. Also, some marine fog has moved inland from Wallops Island to Ocean City. Have issued an SPS for locally dense fog through midnight for the MD beaches, and may need a Dense Fog Advisory later tonight (as the fog should persist overnight with most short term guidance showing the potential for VSBYs to drop to 1/4SM or less). Otherwise, remaining humid with light winds. Forecast lows range from 70-75F in most areas. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 355 PM EDT Saturday... Key messages: - Another round of hot weather starts on Sunday, with heat headlines likely in most areas Monday and Tuesday. On Sun, the front is forecast to wash out to just a weak sfc trough. It remains humid with dew pts in the upper 60s to mid 70s, with upper heights only rising slightly. Will maintain low chance PoPs in the aftn for interior NE NC, with slight chc PoPs elsewhere (mainly in the aftn), but rainfall amounts do not look significant. Main concern for Sun will be the returning heat with mid 90s forecast for much of the area leading to heat index values above 100F. Depending on dew pts, a few areas across the interior SE could approach 105F, but a heat advisory is not likely. The heat really starts to ramp up again for Mon and Tue, as a broad upper ridge expands east from the desert SW to the SE CONUS. With the consensus being for 850mb temperatures rising to 20-22C Mon aftn, highs should easily climb into the mid 90s at the coast, with upper 90s inland. The models all do show some degree of dew pts dropping into the upper 60s/near 70F in the aftn across inland areas where the highest temps are expected. Closer to the coast, dew pts likely stay in the lower to mid 70s through the aftn, leading to peak heat indices 105-109 east of I-95, with 100-104F in the Piedmont. At least a Heat Advisory is likely for the east and possible for the west. Other than a stray PM tstm moving east off the Blue Ridge into the eastern Piedmont or a seabreeze tstm developing over coastal NE NC, will keep all areas dry on Mon. Warm/muggy Mon night with lows ranging through the 70s. Likely a degree or two hotter on Tue across the region with highs in the mid 90s to near 100. At least a Heat Advisory will likely be needed for the entire area, with an Excessive Heat Warning possible in some locations. Sunny or mostly sunny and very hot on Tue. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 355 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Hot Wednesday with heat index values of at least 105F likely for most of the area (with localized 110F+ possible over the E/SE). - A cold front moves in from the NW late Wed/Wed night, and is expected to stall near the region through Saturday. The models remain in decent agreement that Wed will be the last day of hot conditions, as 850 mb temperatures reach 21-23C per the GFS/ECMWF. Dew pts will be slightly higher on Wed than Tue (in the lower to mid 70s), due to moisture pooling along a pre- frontal trough. Thus, hot and very humid on Wed with heat indices fairly widespread ~105F+ Wed, with 110F+ possible in the E and SE. The upper ridge eventually breaks down, as strong upper trough translates south from north central Canada and to eastern Canada late in the week. Will have chc PoPs starting Wed aftn, and likely PoPs all areas on Thu. Then, later Thu night through Sat, higher Pops will shift to the SSE, as the frontal boundary pushes farther S. It will probably stay humid Thu-Sat, but high temps will be much cooler, in the mid to upper 80s Thu, and in the lower to mid 80s Fri and Sat. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 740 PM EDT Saturday... VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period except at SBY, where patchy fog and IFR-LIFR stratus may develop overnight. Any fog/stratus at SBY should burn off by 12-13z. Mainly clear with light winds at the other terminals through Sun AM. FEW-SCT cumulus should develop Sun aftn. There is a slight chc (PoPs ~20%) of showers/tstms Sun aftn-evening at all of the terminals, but overall Sunday should be much drier (w/ less cloudiness) than the past two days. Outlook: VFR conditions expected Monday through Wednesday AM. Shower/tstm chances increase by late Wed/Thu ahead of an approaching cold front. && .MARINE... As of 355 PM EDT Saturday... Key messages: - Marine Dense Fog Advisory in effect for the ocean waters north of Chincoteague tonight. - Improving marine conditions expected into the first half of the new week. - Moderate rip current risk for the northern beaches Sunday. A Marine Dense Fog Advisory is now in effect for the waters north of Chincoteague through at least 8 AM Sunday. Beach cameras and observations continue to show reduced visibilities of less than 1 nm. Warm, moist air, moving over much cooler water (water temperatures in the lower 60s due to upwelling) has led to fog formation this evening. The Advisory may need to be extended into Sunday afternoon on future shifts. Previous Discussion: Frontal boundary has slid a bit further east towards the coast today, pushing the highest chance for rain and storms to the east as well. Most of the local waters will hang on to a chance for scattered showers and storms through late afternoon before chances subside tonight. Visibilities may drop in any heavier cell. Skies will gradually try to clear tonight, allowing the threat of fog across the coastal waters to develop through the early morning. Confidence is slightly higher across the northern coastal waters where hi- res guidance is a bit more persistent with its development. Benign marine conditions are expected Sunday through the first part of Wednesday, though the heat and humidity will be back in full force. Seas will be 2-3ft through mid-week with waves of 1-2ft and generally light winds. A frontal system may come through later Wednesday into Thursday potentially creating elevated seas and winds. Moderate rip current risk persists at all beaches today. Will keep it for the far northern coastal waters, including Ocean City on Sunday. A low rip risk is expected for VA Beach and the Outer Banks on Sunday, then at all beaches on Monday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ650. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...ERI/TMG SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG LONG TERM...LKB/TMG AVIATION...ERI/JKP MARINE...AJB/JKP