553
FXUS61 KAKQ 140140
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
940 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal boundary will remain over the region into early
this evening, and will wash out across the area tonight. Scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms will continue into early this
evening, then end tonight. Isolated to widely scattered showers
and storms are possible Sunday, followed by a mainly dry and
hot pattern Monday through most of Wednesday. An unsettled period
returns late Wednesday through Saturday, as a cold front stalls
across the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 940 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

- Humid tonight with locally dense fog along the Atlantic coast
  of Maryland.

A very weak stationary front lingers near the coast, with mostly
dry but very humid conditions (widespread mid-upper 70s dew
points). There are a couple of showers/tstms in NE NC, but
these should dissipate in the next few hours. Also, some marine
fog has moved inland from Wallops Island to Ocean City. Have
issued an SPS for locally dense fog through midnight for the MD
beaches, and may need a Dense Fog Advisory later tonight (as the
fog should persist overnight with most short term guidance
showing the potential for VSBYs to drop to 1/4SM or less).
Otherwise, remaining humid with light winds. Forecast lows range
from 70-75F in most areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 355 PM EDT Saturday...

Key messages:

- Another round of hot weather starts on Sunday, with heat
  headlines likely in most areas Monday and Tuesday.

On Sun, the front is forecast to wash out to just a weak sfc
trough. It remains humid with dew pts in the upper 60s to mid
70s, with upper heights only rising slightly. Will maintain low
chance PoPs in the aftn for interior NE NC, with slight chc
PoPs elsewhere (mainly in the aftn), but rainfall amounts do not
look significant. Main concern for Sun will be the returning
heat with mid 90s forecast for much of the area leading to heat
index values above 100F. Depending on dew pts, a few areas
across the interior SE could approach 105F, but a heat advisory
is not likely.

The heat really starts to ramp up again for Mon and Tue, as a
broad upper ridge expands east from the desert SW to the SE
CONUS. With the consensus being for 850mb temperatures rising to
20-22C Mon aftn, highs should easily climb into the mid 90s at
the coast, with upper 90s inland. The models all do show some
degree of dew pts dropping into the upper 60s/near 70F in the
aftn across inland areas where the highest temps are expected.
Closer to the coast, dew pts likely stay in the lower to mid
70s through the aftn, leading to peak heat indices 105-109 east
of I-95, with 100-104F in the Piedmont. At least a Heat Advisory
is likely for the east and possible for the west. Other than a
stray PM tstm moving east off the Blue Ridge into the eastern
Piedmont or a seabreeze tstm developing over coastal NE NC, will
keep all areas dry on Mon. Warm/muggy Mon night with lows
ranging through the 70s. Likely a degree or two hotter on Tue
across the region with highs in the mid 90s to near 100. At
least a Heat Advisory will likely be needed for the entire area,
with an Excessive Heat Warning possible in some locations. Sunny
or mostly sunny and very hot on Tue.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 355 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Hot Wednesday with heat index values of at least 105F likely
  for most of the area (with localized 110F+ possible over the
  E/SE).

- A cold front moves in from the NW late Wed/Wed night, and is
  expected to stall near the region through Saturday.

The models remain in decent agreement that Wed will be the last
day of hot conditions, as 850 mb temperatures reach 21-23C per
the GFS/ECMWF. Dew pts will be slightly higher on Wed than Tue
(in the lower to mid 70s), due to moisture pooling along a pre-
frontal trough. Thus, hot and very humid on Wed with heat
indices fairly widespread ~105F+ Wed, with 110F+ possible in
the E and SE. The upper ridge eventually breaks down, as strong
upper trough translates south from north central Canada and to
eastern Canada late in the week. Will have chc PoPs starting Wed
aftn, and likely PoPs all areas on Thu. Then, later Thu night
through Sat, higher Pops will shift to the SSE, as the frontal
boundary pushes farther S. It will probably stay humid Thu-Sat,
but high temps will be much cooler, in the mid to upper 80s
Thu, and in the lower to mid 80s Fri and Sat.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 740 PM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period except
at SBY, where patchy fog and IFR-LIFR stratus may develop
overnight. Any fog/stratus at SBY should burn off by 12-13z.
Mainly clear with light winds at the other terminals through Sun
AM. FEW-SCT cumulus should develop Sun aftn. There is a slight
chc (PoPs ~20%) of showers/tstms Sun aftn-evening at all of the
terminals, but overall Sunday should be much drier (w/ less
cloudiness) than the past two days.

Outlook: VFR conditions expected Monday through Wednesday AM.
Shower/tstm chances increase by late Wed/Thu ahead of an
approaching cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 355 PM EDT Saturday...

Key messages:

- Marine Dense Fog Advisory in effect for the ocean waters north
  of Chincoteague tonight.

- Improving marine conditions expected into the first half of the
new week.

- Moderate rip current risk for the northern beaches Sunday.


A Marine Dense Fog Advisory is now in effect for the waters
north of Chincoteague through at least 8 AM Sunday. Beach
cameras and observations continue to show reduced visibilities
of less than 1 nm. Warm, moist air, moving over much cooler
water (water temperatures in the lower 60s due to upwelling) has
led to fog formation this evening. The Advisory may need to be
extended into Sunday afternoon on future shifts.

Previous Discussion: Frontal boundary has slid a bit further
east towards the coast today, pushing the highest chance for
rain and storms to the east as well. Most of the local waters
will hang on to a chance for scattered showers and storms
through late afternoon before chances subside tonight.
Visibilities may drop in any heavier cell. Skies will gradually
try to clear tonight, allowing the threat of fog across the
coastal waters to develop through the early morning. Confidence
is slightly higher across the northern coastal waters where hi-
res guidance is a bit more persistent with its development.
Benign marine conditions are expected Sunday through the first
part of Wednesday, though the heat and humidity will be back in
full force. Seas will be 2-3ft through mid-week with waves of
1-2ft and generally light winds. A frontal system may come
through later Wednesday into Thursday potentially creating
elevated seas and winds.

Moderate rip current risk persists at all beaches today. Will keep
it for the far northern coastal waters, including Ocean City on
Sunday. A low rip risk is expected for VA Beach and the Outer Banks
on Sunday, then at all beaches on Monday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ650.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...ERI/TMG
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB/TMG
AVIATION...ERI/JKP
MARINE...AJB/JKP