117
FXUS61 KAKQ 070005
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
805 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Depression Chantal across SE NC is poised to move
across North Carolina tonight, bringing showers and a few
embedded storms, primarily to the southern half of the area.
Behind the storm, very warm and humid conditions are expected
for the latter half of next week, with mainly hit or miss type
afternoon and evening showers and storms possible each day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 315 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

- Small Flood Watch has been issued for the Far SW Counties.


- Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected this
afternoon and tomorrow as remnants of Chantal move through the area.
Isolated flooding possible each day.



Afternoon weather analysis shows TD Chantal located over far SE NC
as of 2pm. A pseudo warm front is draped across most of the area.
Behind this front a rich tropical airmass is in place and isolated
showers and thunderstorms have begun to initiate. The majority of
the showers and thunderstorms will be brief. However, further to the
south across NC a heavier band of tropical showers and thunderstorms
are slowly approaching the area. Temperatures this afternoon are in
the lower to middle 80s. these temperatures will drop into the lower
to middle 70s tonight.

Later this afternoon TD Chantal is expected slowly move north. As it
moves forward the heavier band of showers and thunderstorms are
expected to move into the area bringing the potential for multiple
hazards. Latest meso-analysis continues to hint on some potential
for 100 m^2/s^2 of 0-1km of SRH. This is just suitable enough to
not rule out a brief tornado especially across far SE VA and NE NC.
In addition to the brief tornado threat, a rich tropical airmass is
continuing to move into the region. PW this afternoon and into
tonight are expected to be between 2 to 2.5".Overall this afternoon
and into tonight most areas may see .25" to .5" of QPF. However,
some high-res model guidance continues to show band of heavier
showers and thunderstorms moving across the US-15 corridor from
Prince Edward county down into Mecklenburg county. These heavier
bands of rain and embedded thunderstorms could quickly drop 1-2"
maybe even 3" of rain leading to localized flash flooding. With the
newest guidance, trends in real time observations, and high enough
confidence a localized flood watch has been issued for the the US-15
corridor stretching from Prince Edward county down to Mecklenburg
county.

By tomorrow morning the remnant low of Chantal should be located
near the NC/VA border. It will have lost most of its characteristics
and will be more broad. However, it will still have the capability
of producing heavy rain fall as a rich tropical airmass will still
be in place. The risk of localized flash flooding continues tomorrow
as PW will be ~2.5". The 00z HREF continues to paint a 50% prob of
1" in 3 hrs and 30% of 3" in 3 hrs across the Northern Neck and MD
Eastern Shore. WPC continues to hold in place a Marginal ERO for
most of the area tomorrow with the exception of the western tier of
counties. High temperatures tomorrow will be in the middle to upper
80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

- Normal July weather is expected with hot, humid weather and daily
storm chances.

By Tuesday the remnant low of Chantal will be out of the area and
normal July weather will return across the FA. Further aloft weak
500mb SW flow will be across the area. While at the surface a weak
front from the north will stall just north of the CWA. South of the
front a hot and humid airmass will allow to build in place. With
adequate daytime heating temperatures will rise into the lower middle
90s. Cannot rule out a Heat Advisory for eastern portions of the
area at this point, since Heat Indices look to be ~105F. In addition
to the heat advisory an unstable airmass will be in place with Dcape
values between 1100J/kg to 1500J/kg. This is suitable for any pulse
storm to potentially pose the threat of gusty winds. The weather for
Wednesday is very similar with temperatures potentially a little
cooler with highs only in the lower to middle 90s. The greatest risk
for potential heat headlines will be across the SE with heat index
values nearing 105F.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 315 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Staying near normal through the end of the week with mainly
afternoon/evening storm chances.

The latest ensembles 06/12z continues to show slightly stronger but
still weak zonal to SW flow aloft across the FA Thursday and Friday.
The flow aloft and a stalled boundary to the north could
potentially have showers and thunderstorms more wide spread across
the area. The chances of showers will continue into the weekend.
However, there continue to remains some uncertainties within the
global models on coverage. Otherwise temperatures this week will be
near normal with highs between  the upper 80s/around 90 through
Thurs-Sat.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 805 PM EDT Sunday...

TD Chantal is centered over central NC as of 00z. VFR with
widely scattered showers and occasionally a few tstms. The wind
is generally E to SE 5-10kt, and 10-15kt at the coast. The
remnant low of Chantal is expected to lift NE across the region
from 09z-21z Monday, and nudging off the coast thereafter. MVFR
and occasional IFR conditions (cigs and vsby) are expected to
develop at RIC later tonight into Monday morning as showers move
across the terminal. These showers and degraded flight
conditions (primarily MVFR) move toward the coast Monday morning
and linger into early aftn. Embedded thunder is possible, and
some tstms could develop near RIC later Monday aftn as well. The
wind will generally be E to SE ahead of the low, and shifts to
SW as the low departs, with gusts to around 20kt possible toward
the coast.

Very warm and humid conditions follow for Tuesday through
Friday, with late day and evening showers/tstms possible, along
with some early morning ground fog/stratus.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 315 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- There is a High risk of rip currents across the southern beaches
this afternoon.

- SCAs remain in effect for the upper bay north of New Point Comfort
and coastal waters south of Cape Charles through part of tonight.
SCA for the Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort has been
extended into Monday morning.

- Winds diminish slightly Monday morning, but another round of brief
  SCA conditions is possible in the lower Bay Monday afternoon and
  with building seas for the coastal waters north of Cape Charles.

- Sub-SCA conditions prevail Tuesday-Friday with daily thunderstorm
chances.

Latest analysis reveals ~1020mb sfc ridging sliding farther out into
the Atlantic. To the south, now-Tropical Depression Chantal,
downgraded late this morning, continues to slowly lift NNE over
inland SE NC. Gradually tightening pressure gradient has allowed
winds to increase to 15-20 kt in the lower bay and southern coastal
waters, with winds remaining ~10-15 kt elsewhere, with gusts to
around 20 kt in the middle and upper bay.

Chantal will continue to gradually weaken as it lifts NNE across
east-central NC late this afternoon into tonight, with the post-
tropical remnants of Chantal to lift across the local area on
Monday. The pressure gradient will continue to tighten ahead of
Chantal into this evening, with SE winds to 15-20 kt (with 20-25 kt
gusts) across the bay and southern coastal waters into this evening.
As the system weakens and pressure gradient slowly slackens, expect
winds to gradually decrease tonight into early Monday morning. Local
wind probs for 18+ kt remain in the 50-70% on the bay (lower Bay
especially with channeling wind enhancement) for a ~6-9 hour period
from now through about 03z. For that reason, SCAs remain in place
for the upper bay/Currituck Sound through 05z/1 AM. Probs lower but
remain in the 40-50% range in the lower bay through Monday morning,
so have therefore extended SCA for the lower Bay south of New Point
Comfort until 14z/10a. On the coastal waters, seas are still
lingering in the 2-4 ft range (highest south) made up of a
combination of 5-7 second period wind wave and easterly swell. Still
do expect 4-6 ft seas just south of Oregon Inlet to build northward
this evening, and so SCAs remain in place for the coastal waters S
of Cape Charles through 08z/4 AM.

Winds become more southerly and increase once again to 15-20 kt by
midday/aftn on Monday as the post-tropical remnants of Chantal moves
out of the area. As referenced above, the current round of SCAs may
need to be extended through the rest of the day Monday, but will
otherwise be 10-15 with gusts to 20 kt for much of the late morning
and afternoon. Later in the day, building wind wave and swell lifts
up across the northern three coastal zones, and while probs are low
at this time, guidance does show the potential for a brief period of
4-5 ft seas, especially later Monday evening as winds turn SSW. For
now, have held off with SCA for the northern and central coastal
zones. Regardless, winds are forecast diminish Monday night/Tuesday
as the low slowly exits. Variable marine conditions return toward
the midweek period with afternoon sea breezes and more typical
summertime diurnally-driven shower/storm activity.

Rip Currents: A High risk of rip currents continues across the
southern beaches through this evening with a Moderate risk across
the northern beaches. This is due to 3-4 ft nearshore waves across
the southern beaches and high period swell with periods up to 15
seconds possible across all area beaches. The rip current risk will
be moderate for Monday and Tuesday across all area beaches.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Flood Watch until 6 AM EDT Monday for VAZ060-065-066.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ630-631-633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Monday for ANZ632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for ANZ656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HET/MAM
NEAR TERM...HET
SHORT TERM...AC/HET
LONG TERM...AC/HET
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...MAM