162
FXUS61 KAKQ 091819
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
219 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions are expected through Wednesday, with
just isolated to widely scattered showers and storms possible,
mainly in the afternoon and evening. A slow moving cold front
moves into the region with ample moisture Thursday through
Friday, bringing widespread showers and storms both days, and
cooler daytime temperatures by Friday. Heat returns later in
the weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1005 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

- Hot and humid this afternoon with max heat index values of
  105-109F.

- Isolated to widely scattered showers or storms are possible
  later this afternoon/evening, but less coverage compared to
  yesterday.

This aftn will likely be the hottest day of the week, as upper
heights rise slightly as the offshore ridge tries to build
toward the area a bit. Widespread mid 90s are expected inland,
with lower to mid 90s closer to the coast, and upper 80s at the
MD beaches. Not expecting more than isolated to widely sctd
aftn/evening tstms, and this activity should generally stay
west of I-95 (if it makes it into the area). Given dew points in
the mid 70s (locally upper 70s near the coast), max heat indices
will rise to 105-109F, with a few 110F readings possible. As a
result, a Heat Advisory is in effect for all the area (outside
of the MD Beaches) from 11 AM-8 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Another hot and humid day on Wednesday with widespread heat
indices of 105-109F.

- Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms are expected
Wednesday afternoon/evening.

- Becoming unsettled Thursday as a cold front approaches from the
west and stalls over the local area.

The remnants of TC Beryl will track into the eastern Great Lakes on
Wednesday. While the remnants of Beryl remain NW of the local area,
the trailing cold front from the system weakens as it moves towards
the local area Wednesday, but will very likely still be just to our
west by Wednesday night. Another hot and humid day is expected
Wednesday with high temperatures again in the mid 90s for much of
the area. Dewpoints remaining in the mid to upper 70s combined with
the heat will bring another day of heat indices around in excess of
105F. As a result, Heat Advisories will likely be needed for a
decent portion of the area Wednesday. Also, there is once again the
potential for isolated-scattered afternoon/evening scattered showers
and thunderstorms (highest PoPs west of I-95). Isolated
showers/storms may linger through Wednesday night, although coverage
will decrease after midnight. Quite humid with lows once again in
the mid-upper 70s.

Some "drier" air (dewpoints in the 60s) begins to work into the
western half of the forecast area by Thursday morning as the
weakening front pushes into the forecast area before stalling. This
stalled front will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms
Thursday into Thursday night. Right now, it appears the front will
try to stall near or just east of Interstate 95. Scattered to
numerous shower/storms are expected to develop by Thursday afternoon
with the highest coverage likely across southeastern portions of the
area. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible with showers/storms
Thursday afternoon, with PWATs maximized (potentially ~2.00-2.50")
east of Interstate 95. WPC currently has all of the area in a Day 3
Marginal ERO. Severe weather is not anticipated due to the very
moist airmass and a lack of appreciable shear (less than 10 knots).
It will be slightly cooler Thursday with more widespread
rain/clouds, with highs generally in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Southside Hampton Roads into Northeast North Carolina may still
approach Heat Advisory criteria with heat index values hovering
right around 105F. The unsettled weather conditions continue into
Thursday night as the front gradually pushes back NW. Remaining
mild/humid Thursday night with lows in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms are expected Friday.
Locally heavy rainfall is possible.

- Hot and humid weather returns over the weekend with daily chances
for mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms.

Unsettled wx is expected late this week into the weekend weak S-SW
flow aloft continues across the area in between broader troughing to
the NW and ridging offshore. A frontal boundary will be stalled over
the area Friday, gradually washing out Friday night into the
weekend.

Scattered to numerous showers/storms will likely continue through
much of Friday before gradually tapering off by late Friday night
from west to east. Locally heavy rainfall appears likely and the
models/ensembles continue to show the potential for areal average
rainfall amounts of 1-2". Of course, localized totals of 3"+ will be
possible. WPC has a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall on Friday. A
more typical summertime pattern returns this weekend into early next
week with isolated-scattered diurnally driven convection possible
each day.

Clouds and rain will keep highs in the 80s on Friday (and it may
stay in the mid-upper 70s in spots). Highs will be near average on
Saturday before another warming trend Sunday into early next
week..

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Tuesday...

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites this aftn
into Wed aftn. Although, isolated MVFR conditions will be
possible in any heavier shower or tstm that may develop. Mainly
southerly winds 10 kt or less are expected through the period,
but stronger S winds will occur Wed aftn.

Outlook: Similar conditions Wed aftn/evening with isolated to
sctd showers or tstms possible. A more unsettled weather pattern
will prevail Thu into Sat, with chance to likely showers/storms
along with reduced VSBYs/CIGs.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 345 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key messages:

- Generally benign, sub-SCA conditions expected through Wed morning.

- Potential for SCAs Wednesday afternoon into Thurs morning due to
increasing southerly winds ahead of a cold front

Early morning wind observations reflect a SSW wind at 5-10kt with a
few gusts near 15kt. Latest sfc analysis indicates a weak, stalled
front in the region, which will remain near local waters today
before dissipating. Winds will increase to 10-15kt and turn to the
SSE this afternoon through tonight. Gusts to around 20kt are
expected around sunset. Southerly winds increase tomorrow afternoon
as a cold front approaches and the pressure gradient tightens.
Expecting SSE winds to pick up to 15-20kt with gusts around 25kt in
the bay/coastal waters and 10-15 with gusts around 20kt in the
rivers and Currituck Sound. Confidence in reaching SCA thresholds
(at least in the bay) is increasing as local wind probs are close to
100% for sustained 18kt winds across the bay and coastal waters.
Cannot quite rule out stronger winds with wind probs also showing
values around 15% for sustained 25kt winds. Winds fall back to 10-
15kt Thurs morning as the front crosses into the local area, then
picks back up to 15-20kt over coastal waters Thurs evening.
Generally benign conditions are then expected through the remainder
of the period with S-SW winds between 5-15kt.

Seas are on either side of 2ft this morning and waves are 1ft or
less. With the evening increase in winds, seas increase to 3ft and
waves in the bay increase to 1-2ft. Stronger winds on Wed-Thurs
morning bring seas up to 3-4ft in southern waters and 4-5ft in
northern waters. Waves will be 1-3ft. Seas then stay around 3-4ft
Thurs through Friday. Waves will be 1-2ft for most places, 2-3ft in
the mouth of the bay.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ021>024.
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ012>017-
     030>032-102.
VA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ048-060>062-
     064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-509>525.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB/TMG
NEAR TERM...AJB/TMG
SHORT TERM...AJB/ERI
LONG TERM...AJB/ERI
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AM/ESS