182
FXUS61 KAKQ 091944
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
344 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions are expected through Wednesday, with
just isolated to widely scattered showers and storms possible,
mainly in the afternoon and evening. A slow moving cold front
moves into the region with ample moisture Thursday through
Friday, bringing widespread showers and storms both days, and
cooler daytime temperatures by Friday. Heat returns later in
the weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1005 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

- Hot and humid this afternoon with max heat index values of
  105-109F.

- Isolated to widely scattered showers or storms are possible
  later this afternoon/evening, but less coverage compared to
  yesterday.

This aftn will likely be the hottest day of the week, as upper
heights rise slightly as the offshore ridge tries to build
toward the area a bit. Widespread mid 90s are expected inland,
with lower to mid 90s closer to the coast, and upper 80s at the
MD beaches. Not expecting more than isolated to widely sctd
aftn/evening tstms, and this activity should generally stay
west of I-95 (if it makes it into the area). Given dew points in
the mid 70s (locally upper 70s near the coast), max heat indices
will rise to 105-109F, with a few 110F readings possible. As a
result, a Heat Advisory is in effect for all the area (outside
of the MD Beaches) from 11 AM-8 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Another hot and humid day on Wednesday with widespread heat
indices of 105-109F.

- Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms are expected
Wednesday afternoon/evening.

- Becoming unsettled Thursday as a cold front approaches from the
west and stalls over the local area.

The remnants of TC Beryl will track into the eastern Great Lakes on
Wednesday. While the remnants of Beryl remain NW of the local area,
the trailing cold front from the system weakens as it moves towards
the local area Wednesday, but will very likely still be just to our
west by Wednesday night. Another hot and humid day is expected
Wednesday with high temperatures again in the mid 90s for much of
the area. Dewpoints remaining in the mid to upper 70s combined with
the heat will bring another day of heat indices around in excess of
105F. As a result, Heat Advisories will likely be needed for a
decent portion of the area Wednesday. Also, there is once again the
potential for isolated-scattered afternoon/evening scattered showers
and thunderstorms (highest PoPs west of I-95). Isolated
showers/storms may linger through Wednesday night, although coverage
will decrease after midnight. Quite humid with lows once again in
the mid-upper 70s.

Some "drier" air (dewpoints in the 60s) begins to work into the
western half of the forecast area by Thursday morning as the
weakening front pushes into the forecast area before stalling. This
stalled front will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms
Thursday into Thursday night. Right now, it appears the front will
try to stall near or just east of Interstate 95. Scattered to
numerous shower/storms are expected to develop by Thursday afternoon
with the highest coverage likely across southeastern portions of the
area. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible with showers/storms
Thursday afternoon, with PWATs maximized (potentially ~2.00-2.50")
east of Interstate 95. WPC currently has all of the area in a Day 3
Marginal ERO. Severe weather is not anticipated due to the very
moist airmass and a lack of appreciable shear (less than 10 knots).
It will be slightly cooler Thursday with more widespread
rain/clouds, with highs generally in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Southside Hampton Roads into Northeast North Carolina may still
approach Heat Advisory criteria with heat index values hovering
right around 105F. The unsettled weather conditions continue into
Thursday night as the front gradually pushes back NW. Remaining
mild/humid Thursday night with lows in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms are expected Friday.
Locally heavy rainfall is possible.

- Hot and humid weather returns over the weekend with daily chances
for mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms.

Unsettled wx is expected late this week into the weekend weak S-SW
flow aloft continues across the area in between broader troughing to
the NW and ridging offshore. A frontal boundary will be stalled over
the area Friday, gradually washing out Friday night into the
weekend.

Scattered to numerous showers/storms will likely continue through
much of Friday before gradually tapering off by late Friday night
from west to east. Locally heavy rainfall appears likely and the
models/ensembles continue to show the potential for areal average
rainfall amounts of 1-2". Of course, localized totals of 3"+ will be
possible. WPC has a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall on Friday. A
more typical summertime pattern returns this weekend into early next
week with isolated-scattered diurnally driven convection possible
each day.

Clouds and rain will keep highs in the 80s on Friday (and it may
stay in the mid-upper 70s in spots). Highs will be near average on
Saturday before another warming trend Sunday into early next
week..

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Tuesday...

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites this aftn
into Wed aftn. Although, isolated MVFR conditions will be
possible in any heavier shower or tstm that may develop. Mainly
southerly winds 10 kt or less are expected through the period,
but stronger S winds will occur Wed aftn.

Outlook: Similar conditions Wed aftn/evening with isolated to
sctd showers or tstms possible. A more unsettled weather pattern
will prevail Thu into Sat, with chance to likely showers/storms
along with reduced VSBYs/CIGs.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 345 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key messages:

- Potential for SCAs Late Wednesday afternoon into Thurs
  morning due to increasing southerly winds ahead of a cold
  front

- Moderate Rip current Risk for Maryland and Northern VA Beaches
  on Wednesday.

After a rather benign morning on the area waters, the winds have
picked up this afternoon on the Chesapeake Bay with winds 10 -
15 kt with an occasional gust to 20 kt as the Bermuda noses
closer to the coast. Winds on the coastal waters have picked up
on the southern waters but are lagging some across the northern
waters. Expect this increase in winds to continue through about
midnight before relaxing a bit toward Wednesday morning. The
approach of the remnants of Beryl tomorrow afternoon and into
Wednesday evening will again kick the winds up toward SCA levels
with 15 - 20 kt on the bay and 20 - 25 kt on the coastal waters
as the southerly flow increases and the gradient tightens
between the Bermuda High and remnants of Beryl. This should
continue into early Thursday morning. Expect seas to kick up to
4 - 6 FT in the coastal waters and 2 - 3 ft on the Bay. For now
will hold on on headlines as the event is mainly third period
and the winds are just near the SCA criteria.

The front associated with Beryl stalls along the coast on
Thursday before getting pushed back westward later Thursday into
Friday as a wave of low pressure develops across SC and pulls
northwestward. Winds will weaken on Thursday afternoon and
evening as the gradient relaxes along the stalled front with
winds 10 - 15 kt. As the low develops to the south on Friday,
could see and increase in winds, especially in the southern
coastal waters, which could lead to more SCA conditions Friday
into Saturday, but will see how this area of low pressure
develops later in the week.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ021>024.
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ012>017-
     030>032-102.
VA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ048-060>062-
     064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-509>525.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB/TMG
NEAR TERM...AJB/TMG
SHORT TERM...AJB/ERI
LONG TERM...AJB/ERI
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AM/ESS