996
FXUS61 KAKQ 100618
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
218 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions are expected through Wednesday, with
just isolated to widely scattered showers and storms possible,
mainly in the afternoon and evening. A slow moving cold front
moves into the region with ample moisture Thursday through
Friday, bringing widespread showers and storms both days, and
cooler daytime temperatures by Friday. Heat returns later in
the weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 820 PM EDT Tuesday...

Isolated shower activity has come to an end with the loss of
heating this evening. Warm and muggy conditions expected tonight
with clear to partly cloudy skies and lows in the mid to upper
70s. Some low level stratus clouds are possible across the
region late tonight into early Wednesday morning before mixing
gets underway after sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 400 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Another hot and humid day on Wednesday with widespread heat
  indices of 105-109 expected.

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected mainly
  Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday morning.

- More widespread showers and storms are expected Thursday
  afternoon through Friday, as a frontal boundary will be
  stalled over the local area.

The remnants of TC Beryl will track into the eastern Great Lakes
on Wed. While the remnants of Beryl remain NW of the local area,
the trailing cold front from the system weakens as it moves
towards and into the local area Wed into Wed night. Another hot
and humid day is expected Wed, with high temps again in the mid
90s for much of the area, esply inland/Piedmont locations.
Dewpoints remaining at least in the mid 70s combined with the
heat will bring another day of heat indices around or in excess
of 105F. As a result, A Heat Advisory has been issued again for
all areas, except the Lower MD/VA ern shore and Eastern
Currituck county. Also, there is once again the potential for
isolated to sctd aftn/evening showers and tstms (highest PoPs
west of I-95). Isolated showers or storms may linger through
Wed night into early Thu morning, although coverage and
intensity will decrease after midnight. Lows Wed night will
range from the lower 70s in the Piedmont, to the mid to upper
70s ewrd to the coast.

Some "drier" air (dewpoints in the 60s) begins to work into the
western half of the forecast area by Thu morning, as the
weakening front pushes into ern portions of the region before
stalling. This stalled front will be the focus for showers and
tstms Thu through Fri. Sctd to numerous shower/storms are
expected to develop Thu aftn/evening, with the highest coverage
likely across ESE portions of the area. Locally heavy rainfall
will be possible, with PWATs maximized (potentially ~2.00-2.50")
east of Interstate 95. WPC currently has all of the area in a
Marginal ERO for 12Z Thu into 12Z Fri. Severe weather is not
anticipated, due to the very moist airmass and a lack of
appreciable shear (less than 10 kt). It will not be as hot on
Thu, due to more widespread clouds/pcpn, with highs generally
in the upper 80s to lower 90s. The unsettled weather conditions
continue into Thu night through Fri, as the front gradually
pushes back WNW. Likely PoPs for showers/tstms with locally
heavy rainfall possible. WPC has a Slight Risk of excessive
rainfall on Fri. Remaining warm/humid Thu night with lows in
the lower to mid 70s. Highs on Fri in the lower to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 420 PM EDT Tuesday...

Sctd showers/tstms will gradually push to the ESE and off the
coast Fri night through Sat evening. A more typical summertime
pattern returns for Sat night through Tue, with isolated to
sctd diurnally driven convection possible each day. Highs will
be in the upper 80s to lower 90s Sat, and in the lower to mid
90s Sun through Tue.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 210 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- There is the potential for MVFR CIGs early this morning, with
  the best chances focused around the southeast TAF sites.

- Primarily VFR conditions through the remainder of the forecast
  period outside of any afternoon/evening scattered showers or
  thunderstorms.

- A more unsettled weather pattern on Thursday into Saturday
  will lead to the potential for sub-VFR conditions.

VFR conditions prevail at all of the TAF sites to start out the
06z/10 forecast period. Guidance continues to show the
potential for MVFR CIGs closer to sunrise. Confidence is
highest at ECG where a few hours of MVFR CIGs are included in
the forecast. Stratus could also affect RIC, ORF, and PHF but
confidence remains lower than in NE NC. Any restrictions should
end quickly after sunrise. FEW/SCT CU with bases around 5fkt
are likely late Wed morning through the afternoon, with clouds
thickening by the late afternoon/evening. Scattered showers and
storms develop across western portions of the area this
afternoon, progressing east this evening into tonight.
Localized sub-VFR conditions will be possible with any heavier
thunderstorms. RIC has the best potential to see thunderstorms
today (mainly after 21z, with the highest potential closer to
00z). S winds 5-10 kt continue early this morning, increasing
to ~15 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt during the late morning and
afternoon hours.

Outlook: A more unsettled weather pattern will prevail Thursday
into Saturday, with chance to likely showers/storms along with
reduced VSBYs/CIGs.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 345 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key messages:

- Potential for SCAs Late Wednesday afternoon into Thurs
  morning due to increasing southerly winds ahead of a cold
  front

- Moderate Rip current Risk for Maryland and Northern VA Beaches
  on Wednesday.

After a rather benign morning on the area waters, the winds have
picked up this afternoon on the Chesapeake Bay with winds 10 -
15 kt with an occasional gust to 20 kt as the Bermuda noses
closer to the coast. Winds on the coastal waters have picked up
on the southern waters but are lagging some across the northern
waters. Expect this increase in winds to continue through about
midnight before relaxing a bit toward Wednesday morning. The
approach of the remnants of Beryl tomorrow afternoon and into
Wednesday evening will again kick the winds up toward SCA levels
with 15 - 20 kt on the bay and 20 - 25 kt on the coastal waters
as the southerly flow increases and the gradient tightens
between the Bermuda High and remnants of Beryl. This should
continue into early Thursday morning. Expect seas to kick up to
4 - 6 FT in the coastal waters and 2 - 3 ft on the Bay. For now
will hold on on headlines as the event is mainly third period
and the winds are just near the SCA criteria.

The front associated with Beryl stalls along the coast on
Thursday before getting pushed back westward later Thursday into
Friday as a wave of low pressure develops across SC and pulls
northwestward. Winds will weaken on Thursday afternoon and
evening as the gradient relaxes along the stalled front with
winds 10 - 15 kt. As the low develops to the south on Friday,
could see and increase in winds, especially in the southern
coastal waters, which could lead to more SCA conditions Friday
into Saturday, but will see how this area of low pressure
develops later in the week.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for Ncz012>017-030>032.
VA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
 for Vase-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-095>098- 509>525.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...RHR
SHORT TERM...AJB/TMG
LONG TERM...AJB/TMG
AVIATION...AJB/RHR
MARINE...AM/ESS