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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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908 FXUS61 KAKQ 101035 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 635 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Hot and humid conditions are expected today, with scattered showers and storms possible, mainly in the afternoon and evening. A slow moving cold front moves into the region with ample moisture Thursday through Friday, bringing widespread showers and storms both days, and cooler daytime temperatures by Friday. Heat returns later in the weekend through the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 630 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Another hot and humid day with widespread heat indices of 105-109 expected. - Scattered showers and storms develop later this afternoon west of the area, and slowly push east this evening through tonight. - A few storms may be on the stronger side, with the best potential NW of Richmond. Added Dorchester, Wicomico, and Somerset MD to the Heat Advisory with heat index values now expected to climb to 105+ here. Previous Discussion: The remnants of TC Beryl are currently pushing into the Great Lakes region and will continue to track further northeast today into tonight. While the remnants of Beryl remain NW of the local area, a trailing cold front from the system will gradually push towards the region (while slowly weakening) today, before stalling near the coast later tonight into Thursday morning. Another hot and humid day today, with high temperatures again in the mid 90s for much of the area, especially inland/Piedmont locations. Dewpoints remaining at least in the mid 70s combined with the heat will bring another day of heat indices around or in excess of 105F. As a result, A Heat Advisory is in effect for all areas, except the Lower MD/VA Eastern Shore and Eastern Currituck County. Heat indices may be a little more marginal (closer to ~103-104F) across portions of NE NC and far SE VA due to ever so slightly cooler temperatures, but opted to leave the Heat Advisory unchanged. Also, there is once again the potential for scattered afternoon/evening showers and storms, with the latest CAMs still highlighting west of I-95 in particular. Will have to watch the potential for a few stronger storms W/NW of Richmond due to a bit more wind shear compared to the past few days (~20-25 knots) and decent instability (forecast MLCAPE 2000-2500 J/kg). SPC has our far NW counties highlighted in Marginal Risk of severe weather for today. The main threats with any stronger storms will be damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning, and localized heavy rainfall. Any showers and storms slowly progress east tonight while also likely diminishing in coverage. Chance PoPs will be focused across the eastern half of the area as we approach sunrise Thursday AM with dry conditions across the west. Drier air filters into areas west of I-95 tonight in the wake of the front with dewpoints falling back into the 60s. Lows will range from the upper 60s to lower 70s west, to the upper 70s east. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Widespread showers and storms are expected Thursday afternoon through Friday, as a frontal boundary will be stalled over the local area. By Thursday morning, a cold front will likely be stalled near the coast. The front will remain the focus for shower and storms Thursday through Friday. Scattered to numerous showers/storms will initially be focused across the eastern half of the area Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon, with generally dry/sunny conditions for our western areas. The front will slowly creep back to the northwest later Thursday through Thursday night, eventually stalling just west of our area by Friday morning. As a result, showers, storms, and more humid air will gradually spread back west especially by late Thursday night/early Friday morning. While all of the area is in a Marginal ERO for Thursday/Thursday night, the best chances to see heavy rain will likely be east of I-95 where PWATs will be maximized (in excess of 2.00"). Temperatures Thursday will be slightly cooler across the east/southeast (due to clouds/rain) and generally range from the upper 80s to lower 90s. Across the western half of the area, where we generally stay dry for much of the daytime hours, highs will be in the low to mid 90s. Unsettled on Friday with multiple chances for rainfall with the stalled boundary located just west of our area. Shower/storm chances will be highest during the daytime hours before gradually diminishing Friday evening-night from west to east. There will be a heavy rain/flooding threat Friday, especially across the eastern half of the area, due to the potential for training showers/storms. PWATs Friday will be hovering right around 2.50" areawide with very humid air in place over the local area. WPC has much of the area highlighted in a Slight Risk ERO for Friday, with even the mention of a potential upgrade across portions of SE VA/NE NC. Will continue to watch this closely and see if we need any potential Flood Watches on future shifts. Widespread rain and clouds will keep temperatures lower on Friday, generally ranging from the lower to mid 80s (upper 80s SE). && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Scattered showers and storms linger into Saturday, with the highest rain chances remaining over the eastern half of the area. - Above average temperatures take hold once again Sunday through early next week. Showers and thunderstorms linger across eastern and southeastern portions of the area Saturday with the boundary remaining over eastern portions of the area. Temperatures Saturday range from the lower 90s across the west to the mid to upper 80s east. The front finally begins to wash out Saturday night into Sunday, leading to a more typical summertime pattern into early next week with isolated to scattered diurnally driven showers/storms possible each day. Temperatures climb into the low to mid 90s by Sunday and mid to upper 90s Monday and beyond. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 630 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Primarily VFR conditions into tonight outside of any afternoon/evening scattered showers or thunderstorms. - MVFR CIGs develop late in the forecast period, with best potential at SBY. - A more unsettled weather pattern on Thursday into Saturday will lead to the potential for sub-VFR conditions. As expected, some stratus has developed and is mainly impacting ECG. Stratus should dissipate within the next 1-2 hours. FEW/SCT CU with bases around 5fkt are likely late this morning through the afternoon, with clouds thickening by the late afternoon/evening. Scattered showers and storms develop across western portions of the area this afternoon, progressing east this evening into tonight. Localized sub-VFR conditions will be possible with any heavier thunderstorms. RIC has the best potential to see thunderstorms today (mainly after 21z, with the highest potential closer to 00z). S winds increase to ~15 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt during the late morning and afternoon hours. Outlook: A more unsettled weather pattern will prevail Thursday into Saturday, with chance to likely showers/storms along with reduced VSBYs/CIGs. && .MARINE... As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - SCAs in effect for most marine zones from this afternoon into tonight for elevated southerly winds and 5ft seas. - Moderate Rip Current Risk for Eastern Shore beaches today Strong high pressure is centered well off the coast early this morning as Beryl`s remnants travel into the Great Lakes region. A cold front associated with the remnants will approach the Mid- Atlantic through the day today, crossing into the local area tonight. The front is then expected to stall out and remain near the coast through at least the end of the week. There is potential for a coastal low to form along to the front to the south Friday-the weekend. Southerly winds are already a bit gusty this morning with latest obs showing 10-15kt, a few sites in the northern bay already gusting near 20kt. As the pressure gradient tightens between the front and offshore high pressure this afternoon, SSE winds will increase. By mid-afternoon, expect sustained winds around 20kt with gusts around 25kt over the bay and VA/MD coastal waters and ~15kt in the rivers and currituck sound with gusts ~20kt. SCAs are in effect for almost all zones (excluding NC coastal waters) starting later today and lasting into tonight. Southerly winds will diminish overnight as the front comes closer to local waters. For Thurs, winds in the bay/rivers/sound will be around 10kt. Winds over coastal waters will be on either side of 15kt. There is some uncertainty in the forecast starting Fri due to potential formation of a coastal low pressure along the front. While global guidance and the NAM generally agree in the low`s formation, location, strength, and timing are still up in the air. For now, forecasting southerly winds of 10-15kt across the waters Friday with lighter S-SW winds expected through the weekend. Early morning buoy obs indicate 2-3ft seas and 1-2ft waves. Expect seas to be 3-4ft by mid afternoon increasing to 5ft in the northern half of the waters tonight. Waves will be 2-3ft this afternoon with 4ft waves possible in the northern bay and the mouth of the bay this evening. Seas fall back to 3-4ft Thurs and waves will be 1-2ft. Similar conditions expected Friday, though could see some 5ft seas out near 20nm. There will be a moderate rip current risk for beaches on the Eastern Shore today, then a moderate risk at all beaches tomorrow. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ021>023. NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ012>017-030>032. VA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-095>098- 509>525. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ633-635>638. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652-654-656. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJB NEAR TERM...AJB SHORT TERM...AJB LONG TERM...AJB AVIATION...AJB MARINE...AM