578
FXUS61 KAKQ 101817
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
217 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions are expected today, with scattered
showers and storms possible, mainly in the afternoon and
evening. A slow moving cold front moves into the region with
ample moisture Thursday through Friday, bringing widespread
showers and storms both days, and cooler daytime temperatures by
Friday. Heat returns later in the weekend through the middle of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 630 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Another hot and humid day with widespread heat indices of
  105-109 expected.

- Scattered showers and storms develop later this afternoon west
  of the area, and slowly push east this evening through
  tonight.

- A few storms may be on the stronger side, with the best
  potential NW of Richmond.


Added Dorchester, Wicomico, and Somerset MD to the Heat Advisory
with heat index values now expected to climb to 105+ here.

Previous Discussion: The remnants of TC Beryl are currently
pushing into the Great Lakes region and will continue to track
further northeast today into tonight. While the remnants of
Beryl remain NW of the local area, a trailing cold front from
the system will gradually push towards the region (while slowly
weakening) today, before stalling near the coast later tonight
into Thursday morning.

Another hot and humid day today, with high temperatures again
in the mid 90s for much of the area, especially inland/Piedmont
locations. Dewpoints remaining at least in the mid 70s combined
with the heat will bring another day of heat indices around or
in excess of 105F. As a result, A Heat Advisory is in effect for
all areas, except the Lower MD/VA Eastern Shore and Eastern
Currituck County. Heat indices may be a little more marginal
(closer to ~103-104F) across portions of NE NC and far SE VA due
to ever so slightly cooler temperatures, but opted to leave the
Heat Advisory unchanged. Also, there is once again the
potential for scattered afternoon/evening showers and storms,
with the latest CAMs still highlighting west of I-95 in
particular. Will have to watch the potential for a few stronger
storms W/NW of Richmond due to a bit more wind shear compared to
the past few days (~20-25 knots) and decent instability
(forecast MLCAPE 2000-2500 J/kg). SPC has our far NW counties
highlighted in Marginal Risk of severe weather for today. The
main threats with any stronger storms will be damaging wind
gusts, frequent lightning, and localized heavy rainfall.

Any showers and storms slowly progress east tonight while also
likely diminishing in coverage. Chance PoPs will be focused
across the eastern half of the area as we approach sunrise
Thursday AM with dry conditions across the west. Drier air
filters into areas west of I-95 tonight in the wake of the front
with dewpoints falling back into the 60s. Lows will range from
the upper 60s to lower 70s west, to the upper 70s east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Widespread showers and storms are expected Thursday afternoon
  through Friday, as a frontal boundary will be stalled over
  the local area.

By Thursday morning, a cold front will likely be stalled near
the coast. The front will remain the focus for shower and storms
Thursday through Friday. Scattered to numerous showers/storms
will initially be focused across the eastern half of the area
Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon, with generally
dry/sunny conditions for our western areas. The front will
slowly creep back to the northwest later Thursday through
Thursday night, eventually stalling just west of our area by
Friday morning. As a result, showers, storms, and more humid air
will gradually spread back west especially by late Thursday
night/early Friday morning. While all of the area is in a
Marginal ERO for Thursday/Thursday night, the best chances to
see heavy rain will likely be east of I-95 where PWATs will be
maximized (in excess of 2.00"). Temperatures Thursday will be
slightly cooler across the east/southeast (due to clouds/rain)
and generally range from the upper 80s to lower 90s. Across the
western half of the area, where we generally stay dry for much
of the daytime hours, highs will be in the low to mid 90s.

Unsettled on Friday with multiple chances for rainfall with the stalled
boundary located just west of our area. Shower/storm chances
will be highest during the daytime hours before gradually
diminishing Friday evening-night from west to east. There will
be a heavy rain/flooding threat Friday, especially across the
eastern half of the area, due to the potential for training
showers/storms. PWATs Friday will be hovering right around 2.50"
areawide with very humid air in place over the local area. WPC
has much of the area highlighted in a Slight Risk ERO for
Friday, with even the mention of a potential upgrade across
portions of SE VA/NE NC. Will continue to watch this closely and
see if we need any potential Flood Watches on future shifts.
Widespread rain and clouds will keep temperatures lower on
Friday, generally ranging from the lower to mid 80s (upper 80s
SE).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers and storms linger into Saturday, with the
  highest rain chances remaining over the eastern half of the
  area.

- Above average temperatures take hold once again Sunday through
  early next week.

Showers and thunderstorms linger across eastern and southeastern
portions of the area Saturday with the boundary remaining over
eastern portions of the area. Temperatures Saturday range from
the lower 90s across the west to the mid to upper 80s east. The
front finally begins to wash out Saturday night into Sunday,
leading to a more typical summertime pattern into early next
week with isolated to scattered diurnally driven showers/storms
possible each day. Temperatures climb into the low to mid 90s by
Sunday and mid to upper 90s Monday and beyond.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Wednesday...

As we move into the late afternoon and evening, expect thunderstorms
to move eastward off the Blue Ridge and into the Virginia Piedmont,
arriving at RIC between 1-3z this evening as the front approaches.
Models suggest that this line may start to break up as it moves
eastward, but if it survives, it will reach SBY by 06z. Otherwise,
the main concern with the front will be the increased low level
moisture which will allow MVFR ceilings to develop at SBY, PHF, ORF
and ECG later tonight and persisting into Thursday. There are some
low probabilities in the LAMP guidance that IFR cigs could develop
late tonight but there is not enough confidence in including this in
the terminals. Will also include -shra at ECG and ORF late tonight
into Thursday as the front stalls out. There could also be some
isolated storms tomorrow morning, but again there is not enough
confidence to include in the TAFs at this time.

Outlook: A more unsettled weather pattern will prevail Thursday into
Saturday, with chance to likely showers/storms along with reduced
VSBYs/CIGs.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- SCAs in effect for most marine zones from this afternoon into
tonight for elevated southerly winds and 5ft seas.

- Moderate Rip Current Risk for Eastern Shore beaches today

Strong high pressure is centered well off the coast early this
morning as Beryl`s remnants travel into the Great Lakes region. A
cold front associated with the remnants will approach the Mid-
Atlantic through the day today, crossing into the local area
tonight. The front is then expected to stall out and remain near the
coast through at least the end of the week. There is potential for a
coastal low to form along to the front to the south Friday-the
weekend. Southerly winds are already a bit gusty this morning with
latest obs showing 10-15kt, a few sites in the northern bay already
gusting near 20kt. As the pressure gradient tightens between the
front and offshore high pressure this afternoon, SSE winds will
increase. By mid-afternoon, expect sustained winds around 20kt with
gusts around 25kt over the bay and VA/MD coastal waters and ~15kt in
the rivers and currituck sound with gusts ~20kt. SCAs are in effect
for almost all zones (excluding NC coastal waters) starting later
today and lasting into tonight. Southerly winds will diminish
overnight as the front comes closer to local waters. For Thurs,
winds in the bay/rivers/sound will be around 10kt. Winds over
coastal waters will be on either side of 15kt. There is some
uncertainty in the forecast starting Fri due to potential formation
of a coastal low pressure along the front. While global guidance and
the NAM generally agree in the low`s formation, location, strength,
and timing are still up in the air. For now, forecasting southerly
winds of 10-15kt across the waters Friday with lighter S-SW winds
expected through the weekend.

Early morning buoy obs indicate 2-3ft seas and 1-2ft waves. Expect
seas to be 3-4ft by mid afternoon increasing to 5ft in the northern
half of the waters tonight. Waves will be 2-3ft this afternoon with
4ft waves possible in the northern bay and the mouth of the bay this
evening. Seas fall back to 3-4ft Thurs and waves will be 1-2ft.
Similar conditions expected Friday, though could see some 5ft seas
out near 20nm. There will be a moderate rip current risk for beaches
on the Eastern Shore today, then a moderate risk at all beaches
tomorrow.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ021>023.
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ012>017-
     030>032.
VA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ048-060>062-
     064>069-075>090-092-093-095>098-509>525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ630>632-
     634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ633-
     635>638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652-
     654-656.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...AJB
LONG TERM...AJB
AVIATION...CWM/MRD
MARINE...AM