891
FXUS61 KAKQ 110205
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1005 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will impact the Piedmont
through the late evening hours as a cold front approaches. This
slow moving cold front will move into the region tonight with
ample moisture for Thursday through Friday, causing widespread
showers and storms, and cooler daytime temperatures by Friday.
Heat returns later in the weekend through the middle of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 1000 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers and storms will slowly push east this
  evening through the early overnight hours.

What remains of former TC Beryl is over the eastern Great Lakes
this evening with a cold front stretching southward down the
Blue Ridge. Ahead of this front, it remains warm and humid with
temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s. A broken line of
showers/tstms is out ahead of the front extending from central
VA SSW through the Piedmont and into central NC. The severe
threat has ended and the Severe Thunderstorm Watch expired at 10
PM. Showers/tstms will slowly push E through the early
overnight hours, and then gradually diminish in coverage as it
continues to move E through sunrise. Drier air filters into
areas west of I-95 tonight in the wake of the front with
dewpoints falling back into the 60s. Lows will range from the
upper 60s to lower 70s west to the upper 70s east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Widespread showers and storms are expected Thursday afternoon
  through Friday and Saturday, as a frontal boundary will be
  stalled over the local area. Locally heavy rain is possible.

By Thursday morning, a cold front will likely be stalled near
the coast. The front will remain the focus for shower and storms
Thursday through Friday. Scattered to numerous showers/storms
will initially be focused across the eastern half of the area
Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon, with generally
dry/sunny conditions for our western areas. The front will
slowly creep back to the northwest later Thursday through
Thursday night, eventually stalling just west of our area by
Friday morning. As a result, showers, storms, and more humid air
will gradually spread back west especially by late Thursday
night/early Friday morning. While all of the area is in a
Marginal ERO for Thursday/Thursday night, the best chances to
see heavy rain will likely be east of I-95 where PWATs will be
maximized (in excess of 2.00"). Temperatures Thursday will be
slightly cooler across the east/southeast (due to clouds/rain)
and generally range from the upper 80s to lower 90s. Across the
western half of the area, where we generally stay dry for much
of the daytime hours, highs will be in the low 90s.

Unsettled on Friday with multiple chances for rainfall with the
stalled boundary located just west of our area. Shower/storm
chances will be highest during the daytime hours before
gradually diminishing Friday evening-night from west to east.
There will be a heavy rain/flooding threat Friday, especially
across the eastern half of the area, due to the potential for
training showers/storms. PWATs Friday will be hovering right
around 2.50" areawide with very humid air in place over the
local area. WPC has much of the area highlighted in a Slight
Risk ERO for Friday. Will continue to watch this closely and see
if we need any potential Flood Watches on future shifts.
Widespread rain and clouds will keep temperatures lower on
Friday, generally ranging from the lower to mid 80s (upper 80s
SE).

Showers and thunderstorms linger for Saturday, especially across
eastern and southeastern portions of the area, with the boundary
remaining stalled nearby. Temperatures Saturday range from the
lower 90s across the west to the mid to upper 80s east.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Above average temperatures take hold once again Sunday through
  early next week.

The stalled front finally begins to wash out Saturday night
into Sunday, leading to a more typical summertime pattern into
early next week with isolated to scattered diurnally driven
showers/storms possible each day. Temperatures climb into the
low to mid 90s by Sunday and mid to upper 90s Monday and beyond.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Wednesday...

A weak front is pushing E of the Blue Ridge as of 00z. A broken
line of showers/tstms accompanies this boundary. Farther to the
E, A S wind ~15kt is gusting to ~25kt with FEW-SCT mid-level
clouds. Showers/tstms are expected to reach RIC around and after
02z. Elsewhere, confidence is lower as showers along the
boundary should diminish in coverage as the boundary pushes E
after 06z. Patchy MVFR cigs are possible at SBY, ORF, PHF, and
ECG 06-12z. The front stalls over SE VA and NE NC Thursday.
Showers and embedded tstms are expected to develop along the
boundary Thursday aftn with IFR vsby possible in heavy rain,
especially at ORF and ECG. The wind will remain S 10-15kt with
gusts to ~20kt through about 04z, and then become SW 5-10kt. By
Thursday, the wind should generally be NE 5-10kt to the N of the
boundary and SSE 5-10kt to the S of the front.

Unsettled conditions continue Friday into Saturday with
occasional degraded flight conditions as the front remains in
the area. Conditions gradually improve Sunday into Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- SCAs remain in effect for this evening and tonight for southwest
winds 15 to 25 kt.

- Moderate Rip Current Risk for Eastern Shore beaches again
Thursday. Moderate rip risk all beaches Friday.

Strong Bermuda high pressure is centered well off the coast this
afternoon with low pressure over NY. A trailing cold front was
pushing southeast across Ohio and Kentucky into West Virginia. This
weak front will approach the Mid-Atlantic late tonight, but stall
across the region. With the pressure gradient in place along the
coast and Bay expect sustained winds to persist around 15 to 20 kt
with gusts around 25kt over the bay and VA/MD coastal waters and ~15
to 20 kt in the rivers and currituck sound. SCAs will remain in
effect for almost all zones (excluding NC coastal waters)into
tonight. Southerly winds will diminish overnight and towards
daybreak as the weak front approaches local waters. For Thurs, winds
on the Bay may go N and NW for a time before switching to the
southeast depending on the front. Wind speeds should be lighter
around 10 to 15 kt . Winds over coastal waters will be on either
side of 15kt.

The front will remain stalled over the region through at least the
end of the week. Models develop a coastal low along the front late
Thursday into Friday with the NAM being the most aggressive and
farthest east, but all the model develop a low moving it north. The
eventual development of this low is introducing some uncertainty in
the forecast starting Fri though winds are expected to increase as
the low develops. Have increased winds for Friday based on model
trends forecasting southerly winds of 15 to 20 kt across the waters
Friday with lighter S-SW winds expected through the weekend.

Seas this afternoon were running 3 to 4 ft and will likely push near
5 ft later this evening. Waves on the bay were 2 to 3 ft. Waves on
the Bay will persist around 2-3ft overnight approaching 4 ft over the
middle Bay. Seas fall back to 3-4ft Thurs and waves will be 1-2ft.
Waves and seas will build some for Friday into Friday night with the
increasing southerly flow.

There will be a moderate rip current risk again for beaches on the
Eastern Shore Thursday with a low risk from VA Beach south. Despite
the low risk in the south, waves will be 2 to 3 ft at VA Beach so
some rip currents will likely be around. Expect a moderate risk at
all beaches Friday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ630>632-
     634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ633-
     635>638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652-
     654-656.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/JDM
SHORT TERM...AJB/JDM
LONG TERM...AJB/JDM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AM