993
FXUS61 KAKQ 141801
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
201 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal boundary will wash out across the area this
morning. Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms are
possible today, followed by a mainly dry and hot pattern Monday
through most of Wednesday. An unsettled period returns late
Wednesday through Saturday, as a cold front stalls across the
area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 945 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

- Humid today with isolated to widely scattered showers and
  storms this aftn.

A very weak boundary remains over the region this morning.
Marine fog/stratus has dissipated. Warm and humid with
temperatures in the lower to mid 80s and dewpoints in the 70s.

The boundary will continue to weaken/wash out later this morning.
The heat begins to build today, with dew pts in the mid to
upper 70s across the SE, and in the upper 60s to lower 70s W of
I-95 this aftn. Have issued a Heat Advisory for interior NE NC
for heat indices making it to at or just above 105F. Elsewhere,
heat indices will avg 100-104F this aftn. The flow aloft is
zonal/westerly but with some weak shortwave energy forecast to
move through later today. Will maintain 20-30% PoPs (highest
interior NE NC), for some widely scattered aftn storms. An
isolated strong storm with gusty winds is possible if they can
organize to some extent given modest flow of 20-25kt in the
700-500mb layer. Any storms will dissipate after sunset, then
warm and humid with lows mainly in the low-mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 345 AM EDT Sunday...

Key messages:

- Hot Mon-Tue with high humidity closer to the coast and
  slightly lower humidity well inland (Tue probably the hottest
  day). At least Heat Advisories likely, with Excessive Heat
  Warnings possible E of I-95.

- Remaining hot Wednesday and humid area-wide but with a higher
  coverage of storms by afternoon (heat headlines possible but
  more uncertain)


The heat really starts to ramp up again for Mon and Tue, as a
broad upper ridge expands east from the desert SW to the SE
CONUS. With the consensus being for 850mb temperatures rising to
20-22C Mon aftn, highs should easily climb into the mid 90s at
the coast, with upper 90s/near 100F inland. The models all do
show some degree of dew pts dropping into the upper 60s/near 70F
in the aftn across inland areas where the highest temps are
expected. Closer to the coast, dew pts likely stay in the mid
70s through the aftn, leading to peak heat indices 105-110F
east of I-95, with 100-105F in the Piedmont. At least a Heat
Advisory is likely for the east and possible for the west. Other
than a stray PM tstm moving east off the Blue Ridge into the
eastern Piedmont or a seabreeze tstm developing over NE NC,
will keep remaining areas dry on Mon. Warm/muggy Mon night with
lows ranging through the 70s. Likely a degree or two hotter on
Tue across the region with highs in the mid/upper 90s to around
100F. At least a Heat Advisory will likely be needed for the
entire area, with an Excessive Heat Warning possible in some
locations. The models remain in decent agreement that Wed will
be the last day of hot conditions as the upper ridge eventually
breaks down, as strong upper trough translates SE from north
central to the Great Lakes. Dew pts will be slightly higher on
Wed than Tue (in the lower to mid 70s inland with mid to upper
70s SE), due to moisture pooling along a pre- frontal trough.
Highs will be a few degrees cooler Wed (mid-upper 90s) but the
higher dew pts may lead to similar heat indices with 110F+
possible in the E and SE. Isolated storms will be possible by
early aftn, with scattered storms developing by mid aftn and
beyond.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 415 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- A cold front moves in from the NW late Wed/Wed night, slowly
  moving through much of the area Thu, then stalling near or
  just south of the area Fri/Sat.

The latest models remain in fairly good agreement that the upper
level trough pushes from the Great Lakes to New England Wed night
through Thu, but flattens out to the south as it approaches the
strong/persistent upper level ridge anchored well offshore of
the SE US coast. The consensus is for the upper ridge to
retrograde west and become centered closer to the SE US coast
into next weekend. Will have the highest chances for showers/storms
across the NE Wed night, with all zones getting likely PoPs
(~60%) on Thursday as the front slowly pushes south towards NC.
Locally heavy rainfall will certainly be possible during this
timeframe. Highs Thu will mostly be highly dependent upon the
timing of the front, for now expecting mid 80s to near 90F.
Cooler, but still humid Fri- Sat with highs mostly in the low-
mid 80s. Friday may see some drier air push into northern
portions of the FA as broad sfc high pressure builds east from
the Great Lakes. As the upper levels ridge moves closer to the
SE coast Sat, the flow aloft increases from the SW and expect to
see more humid air even into northern zones by that time. Given
uncertainty as to the exact timing and placement regarding the
front, went a little below NBM PoPs for Fri-Sat, 20-30% north to
40-50% south (which is still above climo for most of the area).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Sunday...

VFR as of 18z with FEW-SCT CU and generally a 5-10kt S to SW
wind inland and S to SE 5-10kt toward the coast (locally NE at
ORF). Isolated tstms are possible through 00z. Otherwise, VFR
conditions should prevail through Monday. Less fog is expected
late tonight/early Monday morning with more of a southerly low-
level flow.

VFR conditions continue Monday night through early Wednesday.
Shower/tstm chance increase Wednesday aftn through Friday with
periodic flight restrictions expected ahead of a slow moving
cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 355 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages...

- Generally quiet marine conditions through Tuesday with winds
turning southerly and gradually increasing.

- South winds gusting to 20 kt are possible Wed/Thu ahead of a cold
front.

- Moderate Rip Current Risk today for the northern beaches

With the surface front/trough near the waters this morning, expect
light winds (less than 10 kt) through the day. The winds will
initially be northwesterly, then gradually turn NE and then SE.
These light onshore winds may allow the dense fog to continue into
the morning, although current web cams in Ocean City suggest more
lower clouds vs. fog. As such, will leave the dense fog advisory in
place with a 12z expiration for now, however it is possible that it
will need to be extended later on this morning.

Winds will transitioning from easterly to southerly overnight
tonight into Monday as the lee side trough develops. As we move into
early next week expect the winds over the coastal waters to
gradually increase from 10 to 15 kt on Monday as high as 15 to 20 kt
by Wednesday due to the tightening pressure gradient between the
approaching cold front over the Ohio Valley, and the Bermuda High to
the SE of the area. Winds will stay 10 to 15 kt in the Chesapeake
Bay and Rivers Monday into Tuesday before increasing to 15 kt with a
few gusts to 20 kt on Wednesday.

The cold front ends up stalling out over the area on Thursday, but
gets a secondary push southward by Friday. It is still uncertain if
the front will clear the southern waters, however the consensus is
that it will clear the northern waters allowing the winds to turn
NW. Regardless of where the front ends up, expect diminishing winds
starting Thursday night as the gradient relaxes across the area.

Southeast swell of 3 to 4 ft continue to impact the coastal waters
this morning, but expect the swell to diminish through the day.
Meanwhile, the light winds should keep waves and bay/rivers at a
foot or less. Southerly winds developing by Monday and slowly
increasing through Wed will allow wind waves to gradually build with
seas of 2 to 3 feet in the bay by Wednesday and 3 to 4 feet over the
ocean.

Due to the southeast swell at 3 to 4 feet, will continue with the
moderate rip current risk for the northern beaches today. Waves drop
to 2 to 3 feet for Monday and Tuesday so will go with low rip risk
for early in the work week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Highs and record high mins may be challenged Mon-Wed.

- Record Highs:

- Site: Mon 7/15    Tue 7/16    Wed 7/17

- RIC:  100 (1995)  101 (1980)  100 (1980)
- ORF:  101 (1995)  102 (1879)  100 (1887)
- SBY:  100 (1995)   99 (1915)   99 (2012)
- ECG:   97 (1997)   98 (1995)   99 (1942)

- Record High Mins:

- Site: Mon 7/15    Tue 7/16    Wed 7/17

- RIC:   77 (1993)   77 (1983)   76 (2005)
- ORF:   82 (1992)   80 (1995)   80 (2021)
- SBY:   79 (1995)   78 (2013)   80 (1983)
- ECG:   78 (1993)   79 (2012)   80 (2019)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ013>015-
     030>032.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...LKB/TMG
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...MRD
CLIMATE...