


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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054 FXUS61 KAKQ 051436 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1036 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Mainly dry conditions are expected today as high pressure builds in from the north, with lower humidity expected. Tropical Storm Chantal along the Southeast coast likely moves inland across the Carolinas on Sunday, bringing showers and a few storms, primarily to the southern half of the area. Behind the storm, typical very warm and humid conditions are expected for the latter half of next week, with mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms possible each day. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1035 AM EDT Saturday... Key Message: - Dry and pleasant again today with highs in the upper 80s. - A few showers possible this afternoon over coastal NE NC. Increasing clouds this evening, with a better chance for showers late tonight along the Albemarle Sound. Late morning analysis continues to show broad 1022+mb sfc high pressure centered just offshore of the Delmarva, ridging back SW into the lower mid-Atlantic. To the south, now-Tropical Storm Chantal is positioned off the SC/GA coast. Aloft, heights continue to increase slowly, as an upper level ridge continues to build over the northern and central Appalachians. Temperatures at 14z are mainly in the upper 70s to low 80s under a partly to mostly sunny sky. There are a few scattered showers noted across the northern NC Outer Banks associated with convective bands from TS Chantal. Given rather limited kinematics, little more than some isolated to widely scattered showers possible through this evening mainly south of US-158 in NC. Otherwise, a rather pleasant afternoon ahead weatherwise with seasonably warm temperatures and lower than normal humidity levels for early July. Highs today in the upper 80s (low-mid 80s at the beaches). Cloud cover increases from the S through this evening, as Chantal drifts slowly north, but still well south of the local area. Remaining mainly dry this evening, though as more efficient transport tropical moisture starts to stream NNE into the area and PWs stream back AOA 2", expect more considerable cloud cover with shower chances to return to NE NC late tonight. Early morning lows range from the mid 60s NW to the mid 70s SE. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 1035 AM EDT Saturday... Key Message: - Moisture and precip chances increase Sunday into Monday as Tropical Storm Chantal lifts northward. Humidity and rain chances return to the area on Sunday as tropical moisture moves back in with the SE flow ahead of Chantal. The system is expected to move over land in SC by Sunday afternoon. At that point, the system weakens to a broad area of low pressure and progresses N up the coast through Monday before washing out. Scattered showers look to develop Sunday morning, particularly in the SE. Showers/storms spread across the area in the afternoon, but highest coverage will be S of I-64. Not expecting severe storms, but with PWATs rising to 2 to 2.5" over much of the area (highest SE), locally heavy downpours are the main concern. NE NC is in a Marginal ERO for tomorrow. Nocturnal stabilization should diminish areal coverage of showers and storms once again Sunday night, with PoPs to increase in coverage all over again on Monday. The ERO remains in effect for NE NC Monday, and spreads into Hampton Roads as tropical moisture lifts farther NNE. Precip looks to mostly come to an end with the loss of daytime heating Mon, but a few showers could linger by the coast overnight. Highs on both Sun and Mon will be in the upper 80s. Lows both nights will be in the low- mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 250 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Becoming hot and humid Tuesday through the end of the week with mainly afternoon/evening storm chances. The rest of the week look rather unsettled due to the leftovers of low pressure hanging around the area and a potential front moving in. Storms will likely be diurnal in nature with chances each afternoon and evening. Will see scattered activity Tues-Wed, potentially becoming a little more widespread Thurs-Fri as the flow aloft increases and the front reaches the Mid-Atlantic. Highs will be in the low 90s Tues and Wed, then perhaps a couple degrees cooler to end the week. The return of temps in the 90s and the humidity also means a return to heat indices of 100-103. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 640 AM EDT Saturday... High pressure prevails across the region as of 12z bringing VFR and dry conditions. Mostly clear at the terminals, but there is some high level cirrus persisting across the far SE and mid- level SCT cloud cover over the western piedmont. Mostly clear conditions continue through most of the day. This evening and overnight, cloud cover will increase from S to N as low pressure off the S. Carolina coast (TD 3) drifts N. Calm conditions this morning give way to 5-10kt E winds later this morning. Outlook: A few showers/tstms are possible by Sunday, mainly south, and dependent on the eventual track of TD 3. Showers/tstms are possible for all areas Monday through Wednesday. MVFR CIGs are also possible (especially S) by Sunday- Monday. && .MARINE... As of 250 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Sub-SCA/benign conditions through most of the weekend. - The vast majority of marine impacts from Tropical Depression 3 will remain well to the south of the local waters, although a brief period of low-end SCA conditions is possible Sunday afternoon through late Sunday evening. - Mainly sub-SCA next week with daily shower/storm chances. Benign marine conditions continue early this morning with E-SE winds of 5-10 kt and 2-3 ft seas/1-2 ft waves. There remains high confidence in sub-SCA conditions through tonight, although E-SE winds increase to 10-15 kt by this afternoon (and veer to the SE tonight). Seas continue to average 2-3 ft. Uncertainty increases by the very end of the weekend as Tropical Depression 3 is forecast to make landfall in SC Sunday morning before weakening as it turns NE Sunday night before potentially crossing the waters on Monday. Prevailing sub-SCA conditions continue through the first part of Sunday, but there is a chc of brief period of low-end SCAs (mainly on the bay) from Sun aftn-late Sun evening as SE winds may increase to 15-20 kt for a short time ahead of that system. Local wind probs show a 20-50% chc of 18+ kt winds on the bay for a 3-6 hour period Sun aftn/evening. Will continue to monitor this period for potential SCAs. Winds diminish to 10-15 kt Sun night and remain in that range on Monday. Seas build to 3-4 ft by Sun night/Monday, 2-3 ft waves on the bay. Regardless, it still appears as if the vast majority of wind (and impacts) from TD3 should stay well to our south. Winds are forecast to become S and diminish Monday night/Tuesday as the low slowly exits. Variable marine conditions return toward the middle of next week with afternoon sea breezes and diurnal shower/storm activity. A LOW risk of rip currents continues today, with a MODERATE risk on Sunday and Monday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RHR NEAR TERM...AC/MAM SHORT TERM...AC LONG TERM...AC AVIATION...AC MARINE...ERI