315
FXUS61 KAKQ 111310
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
910 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary stalls near the coast today, before lifting
back to the northwest as a warm front tonight. Ample moisture
ahead of the front will allow for widespread showers and
storms through Friday. The front gradually washes out over the
region Saturday, with dry conditions returning Sunday through
the middle of next week. Heat returns later in the weekend
through the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 910 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:
-  Flood Watch now in effect for Hampton Roads and parts of NE
   NC.

-  Locally heavy rainfall expected today into this evening for
   Hampton Roads and parts of NE NC today into this evening. The
   heavy rainfall then shifts inland possibly impacting the I-95
   corridor later tonight into Friday.

Issued a flood watch for today into this evening for Hampton
Roads into parts of NE NC. Latest radar imagery shows a fairly
narrow line of showers extending from Windsor through Norfolk to
Accomac County. Latest radar trends show this area expanding in
coverage and becoming better organized as the front stalls out.
With precipitable water values of 2.3" in this area, MLCAPE
values close to 1000 j/kg, and this areas seeing increased low
level moisture convergence, expect this rain to continue to
increase through the morning hours. Expect very efficient
rainfall processes, with the band over NE NC already dropping
1"/hour rates. There are some hints from the latest HRRR that
this band may shift westward this afternoon impacting Isle of
Wight and Hampton/Newport News. Still unsure this will occur,
but given the uncertainity will not get too cute with the flood
watch and take it as far west as Isle of Wight.

Otherwise, will need to evaluate for a flood watch further west
later tonight into Friday morning. Model runs from 06z continue to
suggest the front will bend back to the west tonight, the the CAMS
even suggesting a modest area of 850mb frontogenesis to support
heavy rainfall. Current trends suggest this heavy rain will be
centered in the SW-NE band up the I-85 corridor into the RVA metro
and into the northern neck.

As of 640 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Noticeably less humid today inland, but humidity lingers near the
coast.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms near the coast this morning
slowly becoming more widespread and expand back further inland later
this afternoon into this evening. Locally heavy rainfall is
possible.

- Showers become more widespread tonight, with additional rounds of
locally heavy rainfall possible by sunrise Friday morning.

This morning, a cold front (trailing from the remnants of Beryl well
to our north) is located roughly right along the I-95 corridor. To
the east of the front, very humid air remains with widely scattered
showers (and a few rumbles of thunder). West of the front, drier air
is filtering into the area with dewpoints in the 50s noted just to
our NW at CHO. The front will slowly move east across the area this
morning, before coming to a crawl and eventually stalling near or
just along the coast. East of the front today, widespread showers
and thunderstorms are expected to develop, with the best coverage
during the daytime hours over Hampton Roads into Northeast North
Carolina. More scattered to isolated showers or storms will be
possible further to the northwest, with little to no activity west
of I-95/north of I-85. There is a signal for heavy rain today,
mainly along the coast, with the 00z HREF showing some 10-30% probs
of >3" of QPF in 3 hours focused across SE VA into NE NC. WPC has
highlighted our far SE areas in a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall
today. High temperatures today will be fairly close to average with
for our inland areas, with highs generally in the upper 80s to lower
90s. It will feel (briefly) noticeably less humid inland with
dewpoints falling into the 60s (low 60s NW). Closer to the coast,
temperatures will be held back by the clouds/rain and will generally
range from the mid to upper 80s. 70+ dewpoints continue near the
coast and across the SE today.

Tonight, the stalled boundary lifts back to the NW as a warm front
and then stalls near the western border of our forecast area. As the
front pushes NW, expect 70+ dewpoints and PWATs in excess of 2.00"
to also surge back to the NW. Widespread showers (and isolated
thunderstorms) increase in coverage and will lift off to the NW
through tonight. It is looking more likely that a heavy band of
training showers and storms will try to set up across central
Virginia (potentially impacting the RIC metro) by early Friday
morning with moisture off the Atlantic pooling near the boundary.
This will lead to localized flooding concerns, and a Flood Watch may
need to be issued for portions of the area starting as early as late
tonight.  For now, the remainder of the area outside of the far NW
is in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall through 12z Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Heavy rainfall and localized flooding will be possible over much
of the area Friday into Friday night.

- Remaining unsettled through Saturday afternoon, before the frontal
boundary begins to wash out over the local area.

Confidence continues to increase that we will see widespread heavy
rain over much of the area Friday into Friday night. A frontal
boundary will be stalled just to our west/northwest during the day,
with copious amounts of moisture feeding directly into the region
off of the Atlantic. Many ingredients will be in place to
support heavy rainfall across the region including slow storm
motions, a deep warm layer, and moist upglide over the front. It
should also be noted that PWATs forecast to be around ~2.5"
will be likely in excess of daily record values. SPC has all of
the area, outside of the far NW, in a Day 2 Slight ERO. The
current forecast shows a widespread 2-3" for much of the area
through Friday night, but locally higher amounts are expected.
Flood Watches may be needed for much of the region on Friday,
but will let the dayshift make the final call. Widespread rain
and clouds will keep temperatures lower on Friday, generally
ranging from the lower to mid 80s (upper 80s SE). Rain begins to
decrease in coverage from west to east during the overnight
hours on Friday.

Showers and thunderstorms linger for Saturday, especially across
eastern and southeastern portions of the area, with the boundary
remaining stalled nearby. Temperatures Saturday range from the lower
90s across the west to the mid to upper 80s east. A few showers
linger along the coast, and especially far SE portions of the area
Saturday night, but generally dry conditions are expected
elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Above average temperatures take hold once again Sunday through
early next week.

- Heat index values around or in excess of 105F will
be possible Monday through Wednesday.

The stalled front finally begins to wash out Saturday night into
Sunday, leading to a more typical summertime pattern into early next
week with isolated to scattered diurnally driven showers/storms
possible each day. Temperatures climb into the low to mid 90s by
Sunday and mid to upper 90s Monday and beyond. Heat headlines may
very well be needed for much of the area through early next week,
with the latest forecast already showing multiple days of heat index
values of 105+ degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 640 AM EDT Thursday...

A frontal boundary stalls near the coast later this morning. Widespread
showers and embedded tstms are expected to develop along the
boundary late this morning through this afternoon with IFR
VSBYs possible in heavy rain, especially at ORF and ECG. In
addition, MVFR CIGs will be possible at the SE terminals through
much of the day. The front moves back to the northwest later
this evening and tonight with widespread heavy rain/embedded
thunder overspreading all the sites. Primarily MVFR conditions,
but periods of IFR VSBYs will be possible with any heavier
showers or storms tonight. Winds will generally become NE
5-10kt to the N of the boundary and SSE 5-10kt to the S of the
front.

Outlook: Unsettled conditions continue Friday into Saturday
with occasional degraded flight conditions as the front remains
in the area. Conditions gradually improve Sunday into Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 345 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- SCAs expected to end this morning with benign conditions expected
the rest of the day.

- Breezy conditions with additional SCAs possible for Fri
  through Sat morning.

- Moderate Rip Current Risk at Eastern Shore beaches today.

Strong Bermuda high pressure remains anchored well off the coast.
Meanwhile, a cold front, which was pushed into the region by
remnants of TC Beryl, has stalled over the FA. This front will hang
around the vicinity of local waters through the end of the week. Low
pressure is expected to develop along the front to the south later
today before pushing N this weekend.

Latest wind obs indicate SSW winds starting to diminish with most
obs showing 10-15kt with gusts up to 20kt. Will likely be able to
let go of the SCAs outside of coastal waters with the 4am update.
Seas are starting to diminish as well, with buoy obs showing in
southern waters now showing 3-5ft and northern waters showing 4-6ft.
With seas falling back toward 3ft this morning, SCAs in coastal
waters should be allowed to expire at 7am as planned. With the front
in the area today, there may be some variation in wind direction
through the day, especially in the bay/rivers, with speeds on either
side of 10kt through the evening. Seas will be 2-4ft today and waves
1-2ft. With low pressure to the south, conditions over waters will
become breezy late tonight and remain so through Sat morning. SE
winds will be 10-15kt over the river, around 15kt in the bay, and 15-
20kt over coastal waters (highest south). Cannot rule out additional
SCAs for this time period given the possibility of 5ft seas and
gusts up to 25kt. Waves will be 2-3ft in the bay and 1-2ft for the
rivers/currituck sound. Chances for SCAs are highest for coastal
waters south of Parramore Island. Benign conditions are then
expected Sat afternoon through early next week. Winds will be ~10kt
and vary between S and SW.

There is Moderate Rip Current Risk for the Eastern Shore beaches
today. Moderate risk is then expected for both northern and southern
beaches Fri as seas come back up to ~4ft.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Flood Watch through this evening for NCZ013>017-030>032-102.
VA...Flood Watch through this evening for VAZ093-095>098-100-524-
     525.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB
NEAR TERM...AJB/MRD
SHORT TERM...AJB
LONG TERM...AJB
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...AM