853
FXUS61 KAKQ 112009
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
409 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary near the coast will lift back to the
northwest as a warm front tonight. Ample moisture ahead of the
front will allow for widespread showers and storms through
Friday Night. The front gradually washes out over the region
Saturday, with dry conditions returning Sunday through the
middle of next week. Heat returns later in the weekend through
the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 330 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:
- Flood Watch in effect for much of the area.

- Heavy rainfall in SE VA and NE NC will spread inland later
tonight, potentially impacting central Virginia for the morning
rush on Friday.

Satellite and radar have been quite impressive throughout the day,
with a fire hose of moisture and heavy rainfall streaming
across eastern NC into SE VA. Have seen some instantaneous
rainfall rates of up to 7"/hour with the heaviest showers/storms
due to the very efficient rain.

Latest CAMS continue to show heavy rain across SE VA and NE NC owing
to the stationary front and the high precipitable water values of
near 2.3" late this afternoon into this evening. In fact, some
redevelopment is ongoing in NE NC where heavy rain has already
fallen. Regional models and CAMS all show the front bending to the
west later this evening into the overnight hours, allowing the
higher dew points and precipitable water values to spread west.
Along the frontal boundary, some modest 850mb frontogenesis is also
forecast to develop over central VA overnight.  There is
disagreement on where the heaviest rainfall sets up overnight owing
to the uncertainly of how far west the front reaches, but nearly all
of the CAMS have an axis of heavy rain (3-5") setting up across
central Virginia into the Northern Neck later tonight into Friday.
As such, have opted to go with a Flood Watch for the remainder of
the area except Fluvanna and western Louisa, as well as parts of the
eastern shore. See nothing to stop the very efficient rainfall rates
to continue into Friday evening with precipitable water values
continuing to be well over 2". In addition, as the

HREF does suggest a minimum in precipitation between the heavy
rainfall in the SE and the developing rainfall in central
Virginia. This is a possibility, but overall there is not enough
confidence to keep any areas out of the watch (except the far
west and parts of the eastern shore).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM EDT Thursday...

Key messages:

- Rain continues into Friday night. Gradually improving by Saturday
night.

- Another round of hot weather starts on Sunday.

After the potential for heavy rain Friday morning across central
Virginia, latest guidance suggests that the heaviest rain may shift
back to the east as the afternoon goes on Friday due to increased
instability. In fact, the NAM suggests MLCAPE values of up to 2000
j/kg across the eastern half of the area Friday afternoon. This
instability combined with an extremely moist airmass will lead
to additional slow moving or training storms developing. The
front finally starts to move eastward Friday night but will take
through at least Saturday afternoon to move to the coast. Will
continue with likely PoPs into Saturday for areas closer to the
coast. By Sunday, the front stalls out just offshore. Will need
to keep chance PoPs in on Sunday for SE VA/NE NC but rainfall
amounts do not look significant. Main concern for Sunday will
be the returning heat with mid to upper 90s forecast for much of
the area leading to heat index values above 100F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM EDT Thursday...

Key messages:

- Rain continues into Friday night. Gradually improving by Saturday
night.

- Another round of hot weather starts on Sunday.

After the potential for heavy rain Friday morning across central
Virginia, latest guidance suggests that the heaviest rain may shift
back to the east as the afternoon goes on Friday due to increased
instability. In fact, the NAM suggests MLCAPE values of up to 2000
j/kg across the eastern half of the area Friday afternoon. This
instability combined with an extremely moist airmass will lead
to additional slow moving or training storms developing. The
front finally starts to move eastward Friday night but will take
through at least Saturday afternoon to move to the coast. Will
continue with likely PoPs into Saturday for areas closer to the
coast. By Sunday, the front stalls out just offshore. Will need
to keep chance PoPs in on Sunday for SE VA/NE NC but rainfall
amounts do not look significant. Main concern for Sunday will
be the returning heat with mid to upper 90s forecast for much of
the area leading to heat index values above 100F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Thursday...

No major changes to the extended forecast. Will introduce
chance PoPs for Thursday as guidance suggest a cold front
approaches the area. Otherwise, very hot and humid with
dangerous heat index values at or above 105 during the afternoon
Mon-Wed.

As of 400 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Above average temperatures take hold once again Sunday through
early next week.

- Heat index values around or in excess of 105F will
be possible Monday through Wednesday.

The stalled front finally begins to wash out Saturday night into
Sunday, leading to a more typical summertime pattern into early next
week with isolated to scattered diurnally driven showers/storms
possible each day. Temperatures climb into the low to mid 90s by
Sunday and mid to upper 90s Monday and beyond. Heat headlines may
very well be needed for much of the area through early next week,
with the latest forecast already showing multiple days of heat index
values of 105+ degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

Numerous showers and storms across SE VA and NE NC.
Generally VFR or MVFR outside of the showers, but observations have
dropped to IFR or even LIFR under the heavier showers. Expect this
to continue through the afternoon then spread inland later tonight
into Friday morning. As such, will bring PHF, SBY and RIC to MVFR
overnight although IFR is certainly possible toward morning with any
heavier shower/storm. Continued MVFR at all sites for Friday
morning.

Outlook: Unsettled conditions continue Friday afternoon into
Saturday with occasional degraded flight conditions as the front
remains in the area. Conditions gradually improve Sunday into Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 405 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

-Small Craft Advisories are now in effect for all local waters
except the upper James River due to increasing southerly winds and
building seas through Friday and into Friday night.

-There is a Moderate Rip Current Risk across all the beaches through
Saturday.

Bermuda high pressure remains in place through the next week.
Meanwhile, a weak tropical low moves towards the Southeast coast
through Fri. At the same time, a stationary front was located across
SE VA/NE NC. As the coastal low moves inland tonight, it will push
the stationary front inland with the front remaining inland into at
least Sat. Winds were E 5-10 kt across the Ches Bay and rivers and S
15-20 kt with a few gusts up to 25 kt across the S coastal waters
and Currituck Sound. As the front pushes inland, expect S winds to
increase to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt across the Ches Bay,
coastal waters, and the York and Rappahannock Rivers. Winds
gradually diminish Sat morning, remaining below SCA criteria for the
rest of the forecast period. Therefore, SCAs are in effect for the
NC coastal waters Currituck Sound with SCAs going into effect at 7
PM this evening for the VA coastal waters, 10 PM for the MD coastal
waters, 7 AM Fri for the Ches Bay, and 1 PM Fri for the York,
Rappahannock, and Lower James Rivers. SCAs gradually taper off Fri
night but linger into Sat morning for the coastal waters due to
lingering 4-5 ft seas.

Waves and seas were 1-2 ft (2-3 ft at the mouth of the bay) and 3-5
ft (highest S) respectively this afternoon. Waves and seas build to
2-4 ft and 4-5 ft (locally 4-6 ft across the NC coastal waters) Fri.
There is a Moderate Rip Risk in effect through Sat for all local
beaches due to 4 ft nearshore waves Fri and 3-4 ft waves Sat.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Flood Watch from midnight EDT tonight through Friday evening
     for MDZ021.
NC...Flood Watch from midnight EDT tonight through Friday evening
     for NCZ012.
     Flood Watch through Friday evening for NCZ013>017-030>032-102.
VA...Flood Watch from midnight EDT tonight through Friday evening
     for VAZ060>062-064>069-075>090-092-510>523.
     Flood Watch through Friday evening for VAZ093-095>098-100-524-
     525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Friday to 6 AM EDT Saturday for
     ANZ630>632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM EDT Friday for ANZ635-
     636-638.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ650-652.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ654-656.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB/MRD
NEAR TERM...MRD
SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM...AJB/MRD
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...RMM