007
FXUS61 KAKQ 120803
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
403 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary across central
Virginia today, slowly pushing east to the coast late tonight
into Saturday morning. Ample moisture in the vicinity of the
front will allow for widespread showers and storms through
Friday night. The front gradually washes out over the region
Saturday, with dry conditions returning Sunday through the
middle of next week. Heat returns later in the weekend through
the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Flood Watch in effect for all but the far NW portions of the
  area through this evening.

- Heavy rainfall continues to spread inland towards the I-95
  corridor this morning, will linger through the day, before
  gradually shifting back east and slowly weakening tonight.


The latest analysis indicates an upper level trough well off to
our NW across the Great Lakes, with a strong upper level ridge
well offshore in the western Atlantic. To our south, a weak
upper low is cutoff from the main flow across the SE coast, and
continues to transport ample moisture into the local area. In
association with this, an inverted sfc trough is in place
roughly along the stationary front which correlates well with
the SPC mesoanalysis showing a large area of 2.20" to 2.30"
Precipitable water extending along the I-95 corridor through NC
into southern VA, spreading NNE to the MD eastern shore.

Regional models and CAMS show the heavy rainfall focused this
morning along the front, along with some modest 850mb frontogenesis
across the region. There is fairly good agreement on the
heaviest rainfall today occurring inland from the coast in the
vicinity of the I-95 corridor from metro RIC south, and
extending a little to the E of the I-95 corridor to the N of
metro RIC. The latest 00Z/12 HREF continues to show this general
area with >70% probs for 1"/3 hrs and 10-30% neighborhood probs
for 3"/3 hr. As such, the Flood Watch remains in effect for all
but the extreme NW portions of the FA as well as the eastern
shore to the east of Dorchester Co. Expect the very efficient
rainfall rates to continue into this evening with precipitable
water values continuing to be well over 2". Thunder chances
later today will be highest over the SE so locally higher
rainfall amounts will be possible there as well. The widespread
heavy rain is expected to diminish in coverage tonight as the
boundary weakens and shifts back east towards the coast as the
upper level SW flow finally begins to increase. Highs today will
average in the upper 70s to lower 80s over the W and central
portions of the FA, with mid 80s to the east. QPF average
amounts will be 1.50-2.20" through tonight, but as occurred
yesterday, much higher local amounts in excess of 5" will be
possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 335 AM EDT Friday...

Key messages:

- Remaining unsettled Saturday, but gradually improving by
  Saturday night.

- Another round of hot weather starts on Sunday.

The front will take through at least Saturday afternoon to move
to the coast. Will continue with likely PoPs into Saturday for
areas closer to the coast, and chc PoPs elsewhere. By Sunday,
the front stalls out just offshore. Will need to keep chance
PoPs in on Sunday for SE VA/NE NC but rainfall amounts do not
look significant. Main concern for Sunday will be the returning
heat with mid 90s forecast for much of the area leading to heat
index values above 100F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 355 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Above average temperatures take hold once again Monday through
  Wednesday with heat index values of at least 105F likely for
  most of the area (with localized 110F+ possible over the
  E/SE).

The models remain in decent agreement that the early to middle
part of next week will see a return of very hot and humid
conditions. Some of the models suggest somewhat drier air with
ample mixing of the dew pts into the upper 60s along and W of
the I-95 corridor and in theory this makes sense given the
origin of the upper ridge is more continental. However, given
the midsummer timeframe and the expected heavy rain into
Saturday, this may be overdone. Have split the difference for
now, going close to NBM high temperatures overall (highs into
the mid to upper 90s, with Tuesday probably the hottest day with
a few areas perhaps flirting with 100F). Went close to NBM dew
pts across the SE, but a few degrees drier over inland areas.
This still yields heat indices fairly widespread ~105F+ Mon-
Wed, with some localized 110F+ possible in the SE. The upper
ridge eventually breaks down as strong upper trough translates
south front north central Canada and to eastern Canada late in
the week. Will have chc PoPs starting in the NW late Wed, and
all areas through Thursday with a cold front into the local
area. For now, highs Thursday are forecast in the lower 90s S/SE
with mid/upper 80s NW.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Friday...

IFR-MVFR conditions prevail in areas of heavy rain with embedded
tstms early this morning (RIC/SBY), while MVFR-VFR conditions
prevail elsewhere with a more scattered nature of showers/tstms
across SE VA and NE NC. Unsettled flying weather continues
today, with RIC expected to see the most widespread flight
restrictions, while areas closer to the coast become mainly VFR
with just periodic MVFR-IFR conditions possible in heavy
downpours.

Outlook: Unsettled conditions continue into Saturday with
occasional degraded flight conditions as the front remains in
the area. Conditions gradually improve Sunday, and will be
mainly VFR Monday/Tuesday with dry WX.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 345 AM EDT Friday...

Key messages:

- SCAs in effect for most marine zones today for SE winds of 15-20kt
and seas of 4-5ft.

-Improving conditions expected Saturday. Remaining benign through
the early week period.

-High rip current risk at all area beaches today.


A quasi-stationary boundary is located roughly along I-95 early this
morning, and a broad area of low pressure has formed along the front
on the GA/Carolina coast. The Bermuda high remains stationed well
offshore. Southerly winds are generally 5-10kt with a few sites
showing 10-15kt as of latest obs. Latest buoy obs indicate seas
rising to 4-5ft and waves are 1-2ft. Low pressure will gradually
nudge north through the day, allowing SSE winds to increase. This
afternoon, winds will be 15-20kt over the bay and coastal waters, 10-
15kt in the rivers/Currituck sound. Unsettled conditions are
expected today, so winds and waves may be higher within storms.
However, gusts with these should generally be less than 34kt. Seas
will be 4-5ft today, perhaps up to 6 in southern waters. Waves will
be 2-3ft in the bay, 1-2ft in the rivers/sound. SCAs are already in
effect for the coastal waters on account of rising seas, and SCAs
for the bay/Currituck sound will go into effect later this morning.
The rivers (excluding the upper James) will have SCAs go into effect
in the early afternoon. Winds will remain breezy through early Sat,
but should fall below SCA thresholds late tonight. Seas will take a
bit longer to fall below 5ft, but should be able to take down SCAs
in coastal waters by Sat afternoon. The front and low pressure along
it will gradually weaken/dissipate over the weekend. By Saturday
afternoon, winds will be starting to take on more of a westerly
component and be down to 5-10kt over the bay/river and 10-15kt over
coastal waters. Much lighter winds are expected Sunday. Westerly
winds will be around 5kt in the morning, then turning to the
south/southeast in the afternoon as the seabreeze kicks in.
Conditions remain benign through the early week period.

The rip current risk for all area beaches has been upgraded to high
risk on account of 4-5ft seas, onshore winds, and periods being on
the longer side at 7-8 seconds. Will maintain the moderate rip
current risk for Saturday given seas will be diminishing through the
day.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Flood Watch through this evening for MDZ021.
NC...Flood Watch through this evening for NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
VA...Flood Watch through this evening for VAZ060>062-064>069-
     075>090-092-093-095>098-100-510>525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ630>634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ635-636-638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MRD
LONG TERM...LKB/MRD
AVIATION...LKB/RHR
MARINE...AM