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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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378 FXUS61 KAKQ 121850 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 250 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A stalled frontal boundary will remain over eastern Virginia through Saturday morning. Ample moisture in the vicinity of the front will allow for widespread showers and storms during this time. The front gradually washes out over the region on Saturday, with dry and hot conditions returning Sunday through the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 250 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Flood Watch in effect for most of the area through Midnight. The lastest surface analysis shows a weak 1017mb low pressure system just off the SC/GA coast with an inverted trough/stationary front extending northward from the lowlands of SC through eastern VA and up into NJ. This boundary along with a sub-tropical feed of moisture from the south (PWATS >2") have been the catalyst for continued widespread showers and thunderstorms across the FA today. As of 230 pm, the axis of the heaviest rain was across far eastern VA and the lower MD Eastern Shore down into north-central and NE NC. A number of Flash Flood Warnings have been issued today as a result of the rounds of heavy rain for amounts of 2-4" and locally up to 6-7". For the most part, rain has aluded the Atlantic side of the Eastern Shore and also coastal NE NC, but look for these areas to get in on the action by late this afetrnoon and evening as the axis of higher moisture creeps eastward. As we head into this evening, expect PoPs to be high areawide 60-90%, but then after 06z expect PoPs to be highest along and east of I-95 as the stationary front and higher moistures align along the coast. Will maintain chc PoPs across the Piedmont (30-50%). 0.25-0.50" QPF amounts expected overnight on average, but obviously with locally higher amounts likely. Mostly cloudy areawide with lows nr 70 west to the upr 70s coast. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 250 PM EDT Friday... Key messages: - Remaining unsettled Saturday, but gradually improving by Saturday night. - Another round of hot weather starts on Sunday. The stationary front will take through at least Saturday afternoon to move to the coast. Will continue with likely/catgeorical PoPs through Saturday for areas generally along/east of I-95, and chc PoPs Piedmont. Locally heavy rain and even some isolated instances of flash flooding will again be possible (MRGL ERO for eastern VA). 0.25-0.50" QPF amounts expected on average during Saturday, but obviously locally higher amounts will be possible. High temps 85-90. Decreasing PoPs Saturday night. Will maintain some chc PoPs along the immediate coast (30-40%). Lows generally 70-75. By Sunday, the front stalls out just offshore. Will need to keep chance PoPs in on Sunday for SE VA/NE NC but rainfall amounts do not look significant. Main concern for Sunday will be the returning heat with mid 90s forecast for much of the area leading to heat index values above 100F. The heat really starts to ramp up again on Monday. High temperatures 95-99 with heat index values of 105-109 east and 100-104 Piedmont (where dew pts will be lower due to mixing). Other than a stray PM tstm moving east off the Blue Ridge into the eastern Piedmont or a seabreeze tstm developing over coastal NE NC, will keep all areas dry on Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 250 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Above average temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday with heat index values of at least 105F likely for most of the area (with localized 110F+ possible over the E/SE). The models remain in decent agreement that the early to middle part of next week will see a return of very hot and humid conditions. Some of the models suggest somewhat drier air with ample mixing of the dew pts into the upper 60s along and W of the I-95 corridor and in theory this makes sense given the origin of the upper ridge is more continental. However, given the midsummer timeframe and the expected heavy rain into Saturday, this may be overdone. Have split the difference for now, going close to NBM high temperatures overall (highs into the mid to upper 90s, with Tuesday probably the hottest day with a few areas perhaps flirting with 100F). Went close to NBM dew pts across the SE, but a few degrees drier over inland areas. This still yields heat indices fairly widespread ~105F+ Tue- Wed, with some localized 110F+ possible in the SE. The upper ridge eventually breaks down as strong upper trough translates south front north central Canada and to eastern Canada late in the week. Will have chc PoPs starting Wed afternoon, and likely PoPs all areas on Thursday with a cold front into the local area. For now, highs Thursday are forecast in the lower 90s S/SE with mid/upper 80s NW. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 145 PM EDT Friday... Scattered IFR conditions persist early this afternoon as heavy rain bands continue to develop and push through the area. Right now, the lower CIGs are mainly from EMV-PTB-RIC eastward, with high-end MVFR conditions elsewhere. Expect unsettled flying conditions for the remainder of today and into the overnight period. +RA/TSRA are forecast to redevelop and become more widespread later this afternoon, especially across the eastern half of the area. All TAF sites have a high liklihood of seeing flight restrictions occur, with VIS dropping to 1SM in the heaviest cells. The rain should gradually taper off into Saturday morning, though some pockets of heavy rainfall can`t be ruled out. Winds will generally be southerly AOB 10kt, though erratic gusts will be possible in and around stronger cells. Outlook: Unsettled conditions continue into Saturday with occasional degraded flight conditions as the front remains in the area. Conditions improve Sunday, and will be mainly VFR Monday/Tuesday with dry WX. && .MARINE... As of 250 PM EDT Friday... Key messages: - SCAs remain in effect for most marine zones today and into the first part of Saturday for SE winds of 15-20kt and seas of 4-5ft. Heavy rain is also expected. -Improving marine conditions expected Saturday remaining benign through the early week period. -High rip current risk at all area beaches today. Moderate rip current risk on Saturday. A stalled frontal boundary remains in place across our CWA early this afternoon, as a broad area of low pressure slides northward along the front through the Southeast. This has resulted in rounds of heavy rainfall and thunderstorms developing and moving north/northeast. There may be a brief break in activity early this afternoon, but expect rain/storms to fill back in later this evening and into the early overnight hours. The main threat will be heavy rainfall, though some gusty, erratic winds can`t totally be ruled out in the strongest cells. Additionally, the heavy rainfall could create low visibilities at time. Winds are generally south/southwest at 15-20kt across the water with gusts upwards of 25-30kt. Seas are 5-6ft across the south with 4-5ft along the northern coastal waters. Waves in the Bay are 2-4ft, varying with those gusty winds pushing through. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all waters due to these conditions. The rivers will fall below SCA thresholds this evening, with the Bay, Currituck Sound, and coastal waters holding onto theirs into Saturday morning due to the sea/wave heights and wind gusts. Conditions are expected to begin to improve during the day on Saturday with seas becoming 3-4ft and waves in the Bay of 1-2ft. Winds will remain on the lighter side out of the south/southwest through the weekend. There will continue to be a daily thunderstorm threat into early next week, though it won`t be nearly as widespread as today. The heat and humidity will return next week. The rip current risk for all area beaches today is high on account of 4-5ft seas, onshore winds, and periods being on the longer side at 7-8 seconds. Will maintain the moderate rip current risk for Saturday given seas will be diminishing through the day. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for MDZ021. NC...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ012>017-030>032- 102. VA...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ060>062-064>069- 075>090-092-093-095>098-100-510>525. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ630>634. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ635- 636-638. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652- 654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM/LKB SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB LONG TERM...JDM/LKB/MRD AVIATION...LKB/JKP MARINE...JKP/AM