064
FXUS61 KAKQ 122343
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
743 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled frontal boundary will remain over eastern Virginia
through Saturday morning. Ample moisture in the vicinity of the
front will allow for widespread showers and storms during this
time. The front gradually washes out over the region on Saturday,
with dry and hot conditions returning Sunday through the middle
of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 250 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Flood Watch in effect for most of the area through Midnight.

The latest surface analysis shows a weak 1017mb low pressure
system just off the SC/GA coast with an inverted
trough/stationary front extending northward from the lowlands of
SC through eastern VA and up into NJ. This boundary along with
a sub-tropical feed of moisture from the south (PWATS >2") have
been the catalyst for continued widespread showers and
thunderstorms across the FA today. As of 230 pm, the axis of the
heaviest rain was across far eastern VA and the lower MD
Eastern Shore down into north-central and NE NC. A number of
Flash Flood Warnings have been issued today as a result of the
rounds of heavy rain for amounts of 2-4" and locally up to 6-7".
For the most part, rain has eluded the Atlantic side of the
Eastern Shore and also coastal NE NC, but look for these areas
to get in on the action by late this afternoon and evening as
the axis of higher moisture creeps eastward. As we head into
this evening, expect PoPs to be high areawide 60-90%, but then
after 06z expect PoPs to be highest along and east of I-95 as
the stationary front and higher moistures align along the coast.
Will maintain chc PoPs across the Piedmont (30-50%). 0.25-0.50"
QPF amounts expected overnight on average, but obviously with
locally higher amounts likely. Mostly cloudy areawide with lows
nr 70 west to the upr 70s coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 250 PM EDT Friday...

Key messages:

- Remaining unsettled Saturday, but gradually improving by
  Saturday night.

- Another round of hot weather starts on Sunday.

The stationary front will take through at least Saturday
afternoon to move to the coast. Will continue with
likely/categorical PoPs through Saturday for areas generally
along/east of I-95, and chc PoPs Piedmont. Locally heavy rain
and even some isolated instances of flash flooding will again
be possible (MRGL ERO for eastern VA). 0.25-0.50"
QPF amounts expected on average during Saturday, but obviously
locally higher amounts will be possible. High temps 85-90.
Decreasing PoPs Saturday night. Will maintain some chc PoPs
along the immediate coast (30-40%). Lows generally 70-75.

By Sunday, the front stalls out just offshore. Will need to
keep chance PoPs in on Sunday for SE VA/NE NC but rainfall
amounts do not look significant. Main concern for Sunday will be
the returning heat with mid 90s forecast for much of the area
leading to heat index values above 100F.

The heat really starts to ramp up again on Monday. High
temperatures 95-99 with heat index values of 105-109 east and
100-104 Piedmont (where dew pts will be lower due to mixing).
Other than a stray PM tstm moving east off the Blue Ridge into
the eastern Piedmont or a seabreeze tstm developing over coastal
NE NC, will keep all areas dry on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 250 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Above average temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday with heat
  index values of at least 105F likely for most of the area
  (with localized 110F+ possible over the E/SE).

The models remain in decent agreement that the early to middle
part of next week will see a return of very hot and humid
conditions. Some of the models suggest somewhat drier air with
ample mixing of the dew pts into the upper 60s along and W of
the I-95 corridor and in theory this makes sense given the
origin of the upper ridge is more continental. However, given
the midsummer timeframe and the expected heavy rain into
Saturday, this may be overdone. Have split the difference for
now, going close to NBM high temperatures overall (highs into
the mid to upper 90s, with Tuesday probably the hottest day with
a few areas perhaps flirting with 100F). Went close to NBM dew
pts across the SE, but a few degrees drier over inland areas.
This still yields heat indices fairly widespread ~105F+ Tue-
Wed, with some localized 110F+ possible in the SE. The upper
ridge eventually breaks down as strong upper trough translates
south front north central Canada and to eastern Canada late in
the week. Will have chc PoPs starting Wed afternoon, and likely
PoPs all areas on Thursday with a cold front into the local
area. For now, highs Thursday are forecast in the lower 90s S/SE
with mid/upper 80s NW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 740 PM EDT Friday...

Light to moderate rain continues across the terminals, with a
few embedded heavy downpours (but rainfall intensity has
weakened considerably in the past few hours). CIGs are MVFR to
VFR at this hour. Showers will persist through the night, but
these will mainly be light to moderate, though a few pockets of
heavy rainfall can`t be ruled out. VSBYs could briefly drop to
IFR in the heaviest downpours. CIGs will be MVFR to VFR near the
coast through the period, although a period of IFR CIGs is
possible at RIC from 04-14z before improving to MVFR. Scattered
showers continue through the morning with varying VSBYs, and
another round of heavier showers (with a few tstms) is possible
from 16-23z (highest PoPs near the coast). Still too early to
include thunder in the TAFs.

Outlook: Dry Saturday night with patchy fog possible late
(mainly at RIC/SBY though confidence is low). Conditions improve
Sunday, and will be mainly VFR Monday/Tuesday with dry wx.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 250 PM EDT Friday...

Key messages:

- SCAs remain in effect for most marine zones today and into the
first part of Saturday for SE winds of 15-20kt and seas of 4-5ft.
Heavy rain is also expected.

-Improving marine conditions expected Saturday remaining benign
through the early week period.

-High rip current risk at all area beaches today. Moderate rip
current risk on Saturday.

A stalled frontal boundary remains in place across our CWA early
this afternoon, as a broad area of low pressure slides northward
along the front through the Southeast. This has resulted in rounds
of heavy rainfall and thunderstorms developing and moving
north/northeast. There may be a brief break in activity early this
afternoon, but expect rain/storms to fill back in later this evening
and into the early overnight hours. The main threat will be heavy
rainfall, though some gusty, erratic winds can`t totally be ruled
out in the strongest cells. Additionally, the heavy rainfall could
create low visibilities at time.

Winds are generally south/southwest at 15-20kt across the water with
gusts upwards of 25-30kt. Seas are 5-6ft across the south with 4-5ft
along the northern coastal waters. Waves in the Bay are 2-4ft,
varying with those gusty winds pushing through. Small Craft
Advisories remain in effect for all waters due to these conditions.
The rivers will fall below SCA thresholds this evening, with the
Bay, Currituck Sound, and coastal waters holding onto theirs into
Saturday morning due to the sea/wave heights and wind gusts.
Conditions are expected to begin to improve during the day on
Saturday with seas becoming 3-4ft and waves in the Bay of 1-2ft.
Winds will remain on the lighter side out of the south/southwest
through the weekend. There will continue to be a daily thunderstorm
threat into early next week, though it won`t be nearly as widespread
as today. The heat and humidity will return next week.

The rip current risk for all area beaches today is high on account
of 4-5ft seas, onshore winds, and periods being on the longer side
at 7-8 seconds. Will maintain the moderate rip current risk for
Saturday given seas will be diminishing through the day.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for MDZ021.
NC...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ012>017-030>032-
     102.
VA...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ060>062-064>069-
     075>090-092-093-095>098-100-510>525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ630>634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/LKB
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM/LKB/MRD
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...AM