552
FXUS61 KAKQ 130732
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
332 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled frontal boundary will remain over eastern Virginia
through Saturday morning. Ample moisture in the vicinity of the
front will allow for widespread showers and a few thunderstorms
during this time. The front gradually washes out over the
region on Saturday, with dry and hot conditions returning Sunday
through the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 910 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Showers will continue through the night, although the threat
  for flooding rain is considerably less than it was earlier
  today.

The latest surface analysis still shows weak low pressure near
the SC/GA coast, with a stationary boundary stretching NNE
through eastern VA and up to NJ/New England. Showers continue
across the area this evening with impressive PWs on the order of
~2.4" along/near that boundary, but rainfall rates have
diminished considerably with the loss of instability (as
several rounds of convection has already moved across the area).
Rainfall totals have been impressive in spots, with areal avg
amounts of 1-3", and localized totals of 6-7". Showers will
continue through the night, with the highest PoPs along and east
of I-95 as the stationary front and higher moistures align
along the coast. Will maintain chc PoPs across the Piedmont
(30-50%). 0.25-0.50" QPF amounts expected overnight on average,
but obviously with locally higher amounts likely. Have trimmed
the western tier of counties from the Flood Watch, which still
runs through midnight for areas along and east of I-95 (except
for much of the ern shore). Mostly cloudy areawide with lows in
the 70-75F range in most areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 250 PM EDT Friday...

Key messages:

- Remaining unsettled Saturday, but gradually improving by
  Saturday night.

- Another round of hot weather starts on Sunday.

The stationary front will take through at least Saturday
afternoon to move to the coast. Will continue with
likely PoPs through Saturday for areas generally along/east of
I-95, and chc PoPs Piedmont. Locally heavy rain and even some
isolated instances of flash flooding will again be possible
(MRGL ERO for eastern VA). 0.25-0.50" QPF amounts expected on
average during Saturday, but obviously locally higher amounts
will be possible. High temps 85-90. Decreasing PoPs Saturday
night. Will maintain some chc PoPs along the immediate coast
(30-40%). Lows generally 70-75.

By Sunday, the front stalls out just offshore. Will need to
keep chance PoPs in on Sunday for SE VA/NE NC but rainfall
amounts do not look significant. Main concern for Sunday will be
the returning heat with mid 90s forecast for much of the area
leading to heat index values above 100F.

The heat really starts to ramp up again on Monday. High
temperatures 95-99 with heat index values of 105-109 east and
100-104 Piedmont (where dew pts will be lower due to mixing).
Other than a stray PM tstm moving east off the Blue Ridge into
the eastern Piedmont or a seabreeze tstm developing over coastal
NE NC, will keep all areas dry on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 250 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Above average temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday with heat
  index values of at least 105F likely for most of the area
  (with localized 110F+ possible over the E/SE).

The models remain in decent agreement that the early to middle
part of next week will see a return of very hot and humid
conditions. Some of the models suggest somewhat drier air with
ample mixing of the dew pts into the upper 60s along and W of
the I-95 corridor and in theory this makes sense given the
origin of the upper ridge is more continental. However, given
the midsummer timeframe and the expected heavy rain into
Saturday, this may be overdone. Have split the difference for
now, going close to NBM high temperatures overall (highs into
the mid to upper 90s, with Tuesday probably the hottest day with
a few areas perhaps flirting with 100F). Went close to NBM dew
pts across the SE, but a few degrees drier over inland areas.
This still yields heat indices fairly widespread ~105F+ Tue-
Wed, with some localized 110F+ possible in the SE. The upper
ridge eventually breaks down as strong upper trough translates
south front north central Canada and to eastern Canada late in
the week. Will have chc PoPs starting Wed afternoon, and likely
PoPs all areas on Thursday with a cold front into the local
area. For now, highs Thursday are forecast in the lower 90s S/SE
with mid/upper 80s NW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 740 PM EDT Friday...

Light to moderate rain continues across the terminals, with a
few embedded heavy downpours (but rainfall intensity has
weakened considerably in the past few hours). CIGs are MVFR to
VFR at this hour. Showers will persist through the night, but
these will mainly be light to moderate, though a few pockets of
heavy rainfall can`t be ruled out. VSBYs could briefly drop to
IFR in the heaviest downpours. CIGs will be MVFR to VFR near the
coast through the period, although a period of IFR CIGs is
possible at RIC from 04-14z before improving to MVFR. Scattered
showers continue through the morning with varying VSBYs, and
another round of heavier showers (with a few tstms) is possible
from 16-23z (highest PoPs near the coast). Still too early to
include thunder in the TAFs.

Outlook: Dry Saturday night with patchy fog possible late
(mainly at RIC/SBY though confidence is low). Conditions improve
Sunday, and will be mainly VFR Monday/Tuesday with dry wx.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 AM EDT Friday...

Key messages:

- SCAs have been dropped for all waters except from the NC/VA
  border south where seas remain 4-6ft.

- Periods of moderate to
  heavy rainfall will continue today in scattered to numerous
  showers.

- Improving marine conditions expected through today and
  especially Sunday into early next week.

- Moderate rip current risk today all beaches and Ocean City
  Sunday.

Continued unsettled through today and especially this afternoon
as a stalled front remains over the area. Model develop more
scattered to even numerous showers and a few thunderstorms
today with coverage increasing from noon through 6 pm. Showers
will produce heavy rainfall reducing visibility. Seas have
decrease to around 4 ft over MD and VA waters with 4 to 6 ft
along the NC coast this morning. Expect seas to continue to
slowly decrease through this morning and afternoon. Winds this
morning were south at 10 to 15 kt and these conditions will
persist today with maybe a slight increase over the NC waters
this afternoon.

Conditions improve even more on Sunday as a weak front pushes
into the coastal waters with winds going from light south to
northwest and then south again. There is no pressure or
temperature gradient with the weak front and winds will remain
around 5 to 10 kt. Expect generally calm conditions Sunday and
into Monday as wind again become more southwest. South to southwest
winds do not increase much until Tuesday and Wednesday, but even
then look to remain 15 to 20 kt or less.

Will maintain the moderate rip current risk for Saturday at all
beaches given seas will be diminishing through the day.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...ERI/JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM/LKB/MRD
AVIATION...ERI/RHR
MARINE...JAO