061
FXUS61 KAKQ 131145
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
745 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal boundary will remain over the region today, and
will wash out across the area tonight. Scattered to numerous
showers and a few thunderstorms continue into the afternoon, then
diminish in coverage late. Isolated to widely scattered showers
and storms are possible Sunday, followed by a mainly dry and hot
pattern Monday through most of Wednesday. An unsettled period
returns late Wednesday through Friday as a cold front stalls
across the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 345 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

- Showers and storms will continue today, although the threat
  for flooding rain is lower than the past 2 days.

The latest surface analysis still shows weak low pressure across
the coastal plain of GA/SC, with a stationary boundary
stretching NNE into central and eastern VA and up to NJ.
Scattered showers continue across the area this morning with
impressive PWs on the order of ~2.3" along/near that boundary,
tapered down to around 2.0" over the NW portions of the CWA. It
is mostly cloudy areawide with temperatures in the low-mid 70s.
Some patchy fog is possible through sunrise across the piedmont,
but dense fog is not expected.

The stationary front will slowly translate to the east later
today, and will take through at least late aftn/evening to move
a bit closer to the coast (while generally weakening). Will
continue with likely PoPs later this morning into the aftn over
most of the region, gradually drying out from NW to SE by late
aftn. Locally heavy rain and even some isolated instances of
flash flooding will again be possible (MRGL ERO for eastern VA),
but with less organization compared to Friday. The 00Z/13 HREF
does show 10-30% probs for 3"/3 hr between 18-21Z this aftn over
SE VA/interior NE NC, but overall do not anticipate flash
flooding to be widespread enough for another Flood Watch. On
average, expect additional QPF amounts of 0.25-0.50" W of I-95,
with around 1.00" to the east, but obviously locally higher
amounts will be possible (especially over the SE and up into the
MD ern shore). High temps will mostly be in the mid to upper
80s, with a few areas of the far west near 90F (where the most
aftn sunshine is expected). Decreasing PoPs tonight. Will
maintain some chc PoPs along the immediate coast (30-40%). Lows
generally 70-75F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 AM EDT Saturday...

Key messages:

- Another round of hot weather starts on Sunday, with heat
  headlines likely in some areas by Monday.

By Sunday, the front is forecast to wash out to just a weak sfc
trough. It remains humid with dew pts in the 70s and with upper
heights only rising slightly, will maintain low chance PoPs in
the aftn for interior NE NC, with slight chc PoPs elsewhere
(mainly in the aftn), but rainfall amounts do not look
significant. Main concern for Sunday will be the returning heat
with mid 90s forecast for much of the area leading to heat index
values above 100F. Depending on dew pts, a few areas across the
interior SE could approach 105F, but a heat advisory is not
likely.

The heat really starts to ramp up again on Monday, as a broad
upper ridge expands east from the desert SW to the SE CONUS.
With the consensus being for 850mb temperatures rising to 20-22C
Mon aftn, highs should easily climb into the mid 90s at the
coast, with upper 90s inland. The models all do show some degree
of dew pts dropping into the upper 60s/around 70F in the aftn
across inland areas where the highest temperatures are expected
Closer to the coast, dew pts likely stay in the mid 70s through
the aftn, leading to peak heat indices 105-109 east of I-95,
with 100-104F in the Piedmont. At least a Heat Advisory is
likely for the east and possible for the west. Other than a
stray PM tstm moving east off the Blue Ridge into the eastern
Piedmont or a seabreeze tstm developing over coastal NE NC, will
keep all areas dry on Monday. Warm/muggy Mon night with lows
ranging through the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Hot Tuesday and Wednesday with heat index values of at least
  105F likely for most of the area (with localized 110F+
  possible over the E/SE).

- A cold front moves in from the NW late Wed/Wed night, and is
  expected to stall near the region through at least Friday.

The models remain in decent agreement that the Tuesday-Wednesday
period will be the peak of the heat, as 850 mb temperatures
reach 21-23C per the GFS/ECMWF. Some of the models still suggest
somewhat drier air with ample mixing of the dew pts into the
upper 60s along and W of the I-95 corridor Tuesday, with dew pts
slightly higher (even inland) for Wed with moisture pooling
along a pre-frontal trough. Given the midsummer timeframe and
the heavy rain of the past 2 days (and some additional rain
today), think the lower dew pts Tue may be overdone and with
highs Tuesday in the upper 90s to around 100F, heat headlines
are very likely regardless. Will stay close to NBM dew pts E
and a few degrees drier over inland areas (where the NBM is
typically too high). Either way, this still yields heat indices
fairly widespread ~105F+ Tue- Wed, with 110F+ possible in the E
and SE both day. The upper ridge eventually breaks down as
strong upper trough translates south front north central Canada
and to eastern Canada late in the week. Will have chc PoPs
starting Wed afternoon, and likely PoPs all areas on Thursday
and again Friday as the cold front stalls in the vicinity of the
local area (given SW flow aloft making it difficult for the
front to push well S of the local area). It will probably stay
humid Thu- Fri, but high temperatures will be much cooler, in
the mid to upper 80s Thu, and lower-mid 80s Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 730 AM EDT Saturday...

Scattered to numerous showers are expected to start the TAFs at
RIC/SBY, with at least TEMPO IFR flight restrictions this
morning. Generally VFR at ORF/ECG through late morning with VCSH
and similar at PHF, but with a lower CIG early on. By the late
morning/aftn, the bulk of the shower activity (along with a chc
for some tstms) will start to focus east of I-95 and drift
towards the coast. Still too early to include any prevailing
thunder in the TAFs, but have added VCTS wording along with
prevailing showers.

Outlook: Drying out tonight with patchy fog possible late
(mainly at RIC/SBY though confidence is low). Conditions improve
Sunday, and will be mainly VFR Monday through most of Wed with
dry wx (showers/tstms possible late Wed).

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 AM EDT Friday...

Key messages:

- SCAs have been dropped for all waters except from the NC/VA
  border south where seas remain 4-6ft.

- Periods of moderate to
  heavy rainfall will continue today in scattered to numerous
  showers.

- Improving marine conditions expected through today and
  especially Sunday into early next week.

- Moderate rip current risk today all beaches and Ocean City
  Sunday.

Continued unsettled through today and especially this afternoon
as a stalled front remains over the area. Model develop more
scattered to even numerous showers and a few thunderstorms
today with coverage increasing from noon through 6 pm. Showers
will produce heavy rainfall reducing visibility. Seas have
decrease to around 4 ft over MD and VA waters with 4 to 6 ft
along the NC coast this morning. Expect seas to continue to
slowly decrease through this morning and afternoon. Winds this
morning were south at 10 to 15 kt and these conditions will
persist today with maybe a slight increase over the NC waters
this afternoon.

Conditions improve even more on Sunday as a weak front pushes
into the coastal waters with winds going from light south to
northwest and then south again. There is no pressure or
temperature gradient with the weak front and winds will remain
around 5 to 10 kt. Expect generally calm conditions Sunday and
into Monday as wind again become more southwest. South to southwest
winds do not increase much until Tuesday and Wednesday, but even
then look to remain 15 to 20 kt or less.

Will maintain the moderate rip current risk for Saturday at all
beaches given seas will be diminishing through the day.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...JDM/LKB
AVIATION...ERI/LKB
MARINE...JAO