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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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142 FXUS61 KAKQ 131431 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1031 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A weak frontal boundary will remain over the region this afternoon, and will wash out across the area tonight. Scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms continue into the afternoon, then diminish in coverage late. Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms are possible Sunday, followed by a mainly dry and hot pattern Monday through most of Wednesday. An unsettled period returns late Wednesday through Friday, as a cold front stalls across the area. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1025 AM EDT Saturday... Key Message: - Showers and storms will continue this afternoon, although the threat for flooding rain is lower than the past 2 days. Late this morning, a stationary boundary was extending from NJ SSW through east-central VA, then down into ern NC. Weak areas of low pressure were along the boundary. Latest radar showed isolated to sctd showers and tstms occurring along and E of Interstate 95. Temps ranged from the mid 70s to the lower 80s. The stationary front will slowly translate to the east later today, and will take through at least late aftn/evening to move a bit closer to the coast (while generally weakening). Will continue with likely PoPs into this aftn over the ern half of the region, gradually drying out from NW to SE by late this aftn. Locally heavy rain and even some isolated instances of flash flooding will again be possible (MRGL ERO for eastern VA), but with less organization compared to Fri. The 00Z/13 HREF does show 10-30% probs for 3"/3 hr between 18-21Z this aftn over SE VA/interior NE NC, but overall do not anticipate flash flooding to be widespread enough for another Flood Watch. On average, expect additional QPF amounts of 0.25-0.50" W of I-95, with around 1.00" to the east, but obviously locally higher amounts will be possible (esply over the SE and up into the MD ern shore). High temps will mostly be in the mid to upper 80s, with a few areas of the far west near 90F (where the most aftn sunshine is expected). Decreasing PoPs tonight. Will maintain some chc PoPs along the immediate coast (20-40%). Lows generally 70-75F. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 AM EDT Saturday... Key messages: - Another round of hot weather starts on Sunday, with heat headlines likely in some areas by Monday. By Sunday, the front is forecast to wash out to just a weak sfc trough. It remains humid with dew pts in the 70s and with upper heights only rising slightly, will maintain low chance PoPs in the aftn for interior NE NC, with slight chc PoPs elsewhere (mainly in the aftn), but rainfall amounts do not look significant. Main concern for Sunday will be the returning heat with mid 90s forecast for much of the area leading to heat index values above 100F. Depending on dew pts, a few areas across the interior SE could approach 105F, but a heat advisory is not likely. The heat really starts to ramp up again on Monday, as a broad upper ridge expands east from the desert SW to the SE CONUS. With the consensus being for 850mb temperatures rising to 20-22C Mon aftn, highs should easily climb into the mid 90s at the coast, with upper 90s inland. The models all do show some degree of dew pts dropping into the upper 60s/around 70F in the aftn across inland areas where the highest temperatures are expected Closer to the coast, dew pts likely stay in the mid 70s through the aftn, leading to peak heat indices 105-109 east of I-95, with 100-104F in the Piedmont. At least a Heat Advisory is likely for the east and possible for the west. Other than a stray PM tstm moving east off the Blue Ridge into the eastern Piedmont or a seabreeze tstm developing over coastal NE NC, will keep all areas dry on Monday. Warm/muggy Mon night with lows ranging through the 70s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 400 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Hot Tuesday and Wednesday with heat index values of at least 105F likely for most of the area (with localized 110F+ possible over the E/SE). - A cold front moves in from the NW late Wed/Wed night, and is expected to stall near the region through at least Friday. The models remain in decent agreement that the Tuesday-Wednesday period will be the peak of the heat, as 850 mb temperatures reach 21-23C per the GFS/ECMWF. Some of the models still suggest somewhat drier air with ample mixing of the dew pts into the upper 60s along and W of the I-95 corridor Tuesday, with dew pts slightly higher (even inland) for Wed with moisture pooling along a pre-frontal trough. Given the midsummer timeframe and the heavy rain of the past 2 days (and some additional rain today), think the lower dew pts Tue may be overdone and with highs Tuesday in the upper 90s to around 100F, heat headlines are very likely regardless. Will stay close to NBM dew pts E and a few degrees drier over inland areas (where the NBM is typically too high). Either way, this still yields heat indices fairly widespread ~105F+ Tue- Wed, with 110F+ possible in the E and SE both day. The upper ridge eventually breaks down as strong upper trough translates south front north central Canada and to eastern Canada late in the week. Will have chc PoPs starting Wed afternoon, and likely PoPs all areas on Thursday and again Friday as the cold front stalls in the vicinity of the local area (given SW flow aloft making it difficult for the front to push well S of the local area). It will probably stay humid Thu- Fri, but high temperatures will be much cooler, in the mid to upper 80s Thu, and lower-mid 80s Friday. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 730 AM EDT Saturday... Scattered to numerous showers are expected to start the TAFs at RIC/SBY, with at least TEMPO IFR flight restrictions this morning. Generally VFR at ORF/ECG through late morning with VCSH and similar at PHF, but with a lower CIG early on. By the late morning/aftn, the bulk of the shower activity (along with a chc for some tstms) will start to focus east of I-95 and drift towards the coast. Still too early to include any prevailing thunder in the TAFs, but have added VCTS wording along with prevailing showers. Outlook: Drying out tonight with patchy fog possible late (mainly at RIC/SBY though confidence is low). Conditions improve Sunday, and will be mainly VFR Monday through most of Wed with dry wx (showers/tstms possible late Wed). && .MARINE... As of 330 AM EDT Friday... Key messages: - SCAs have been dropped for all waters except from the NC/VA border south where seas remain 4-6ft. - Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall will continue today in scattered to numerous showers. - Improving marine conditions expected through today and especially Sunday into early next week. - Moderate rip current risk today all beaches and Ocean City Sunday. Continued unsettled through today and especially this afternoon as a stalled front remains over the area. Model develop more scattered to even numerous showers and a few thunderstorms today with coverage increasing from noon through 6 pm. Showers will produce heavy rainfall reducing visibility. Seas have decrease to around 4 ft over MD and VA waters with 4 to 6 ft along the NC coast this morning. Expect seas to continue to slowly decrease through this morning and afternoon. Winds this morning were south at 10 to 15 kt and these conditions will persist today with maybe a slight increase over the NC waters this afternoon. Conditions improve even more on Sunday as a weak front pushes into the coastal waters with winds going from light south to northwest and then south again. There is no pressure or temperature gradient with the weak front and winds will remain around 5 to 10 kt. Expect generally calm conditions Sunday and into Monday as wind again become more southwest. South to southwest winds do not increase much until Tuesday and Wednesday, but even then look to remain 15 to 20 kt or less. Will maintain the moderate rip current risk for Saturday at all beaches given seas will be diminishing through the day. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB/TMG SHORT TERM...LKB LONG TERM...JDM/LKB AVIATION...ERI/LKB MARINE...JKP/JAO