397
FXUS61 KAKQ 060758
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
358 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Very hot and humid again today with scattered afternoon
thunderstorms across southeastern portions of the area. Somewhat
cooler but humid conditions continue through next week with daily
chances of mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 355 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Very hot and humid conditions continue with heat indices up to around
  112F possible across the eastern half of the area and 103-
  108F farther west. Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories
  are in effect for the entire area.

- Scattered storms are possible this afternoon into tonight
  across mainly southeast portions of the area with heavy rain
  possible.

High pressure continues to sit off the SE early this morning while a
weak stationary front is situated well the NW. Aloft, a ridge is in
place from the Gulf coast to the S Mid-Atlantic with a trough
dipping into the upper Midwest. A moist airmass remains in place
with latest mesoanalysis showing PWATs of 2-2.2" across the area.
Temps as of 330 AM ranged from the mid 70s W to the upper 70s to
around 80F E. Widespread cloud cover will keep temps nearly stable
with morning lows perhaps a degree or two cooler. A few showers and
storms were noted just to the SW of the local area and should weaken
as them move towards SW counties over the next couple of hours.

Very hot and humid conditions continue today under partly cloudy
skies. Given that temps and dew points will already be starting out
in the mid-upper 70s, it won`t take long for heat indices to climb
above 100F by around 10-11AM. DESI probs for heat indices >109 have
increased to 60-80% across Hampton Roads with 40-50% probs across NE
NC and lower probs NW up to I-95. As such, confidence has increased
in heat indices climbing yet again to 110-112F (locally higher
possible) E of I-95 and including the Eastern Shore. Confidence
decreases substantially around the I-95 corridor where heat indices
of 107-110F are possible. Heat indices decrease farther W and along
the Outer Banks and Eastern Shore beaches. However, heat indices up
to 105F are possible in these areas. As such, have upgrades to
Excessive Heat Warnings along and E of I-95 (excluding the
aforementioned beaches) with Heat Advisories in effect for the
remainder of the area. Will note that confidence in the far W
counties is lower due to the potential for more mixing of the dew
points. Otherwise, highs today in the mid-upper 90s are expected
with lows tonight in the lower 70s W to the mid-upper 70s E.

A cold front approaches from the W today, stalling over central VA.
Model guidance has come into better agreement regarding convection
this afternoon remaining limited to primarily SE VA/NE NC where PoPs
increase to 60% this afternoon. Farther N/NW PoPs are 30-40% with
some uncertainty regarding how far NW the showers/storms push. PoPs
linger across SE portions of the FA through tonight but gradually
diminish with time. Given very high PWATs and weak shear, heavy rain
will be possible with any storms, especially if storms train. WPC
has SE portions of the FA under a slight risk for excessive rainfall
with marginal for the remainder of the FA. Additionally, a few
strong to potentially severe storms are also possible (mainly across
SE VA/NE NC). However, widespread severe storms are not
anticipated.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Very hot conditions continue into Saturday with heat indices
  of up to around 110F possible along portions of eastern
  Virginia and northeast North Carolina with 102-107F farther
  west and across the Eastern Shore. A Heat Advisory is in place
  for much of the forecast area.

- Scattered storms are possible Saturday afternoon into Saturday
  night. Heavy rain will the main threat with stronger storms.

The upper ridge breaks down some by Saturday allowing the upper
trough and a weakening cold front to approach from the NW.
Meanwhile, an upper level low lingers off the Southeast coast. Hot
and humid weather continues for the FA, though not quite as hot as
today. Highs will be in the mid 90s and dewpoints will stay in the
mid-upper 70s for most of the area, low 70s for NW counties. Heat
indices will rise to 105-108F for much of the area with perhaps a
few locations near the coast reach 110F. Went ahead and issued a
Heat Advisory for most of the FA, except for NW counties and the
beaches. Ahead of the front, afternoon/evening storms with higher
coverage than today are expected. Highest coverage is expected along
the coast where PoPs will increase to 60-70% during the early
evening hours with 30-55% elsewhere. With some stronger mid- level
flow approaching from the NW, better storm organization may allow
for some stronger storms. That being said, the more likely threat
from showers/storms will be heavy rain given the very moist
environments. PWs will once again be over 2". Thus, the WPC has
placed SE portions of the area in a Slight Risk for Excessive Rain.
QPF tomorrow looks like widespread values under 0.5" with localized
areas of 1-2". The cold front approaches the area but stalls,
allowing for PoPs to continue overnight Sat night and into Sun with
the highest PoPs across SE VA/NE NC. Showers/storms gradually move
offshore Sun night. With the convection allowing for rain cooled
air, lows Sat night will be cooler than tonight in the lower 70s W
to mid 70s along the E of I-95. Highs Sun in the upper 80s to lower
90s with lows Sun night in the low-mid 70s expected. Heat indices
will be cooler on Sun (95-100F).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 400 PM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures and very humid
  conditions continue through next week.

- Remaining a bit unsettled with a chance for mainly afternoon
  and evening showers and storms each day.

Not as hot through the period, but high temps will still be
slightly above normal ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s
(most in the lower 90s). Humidity sticks around with dew points
in the 70s continuing through the week. Additionally, with lee
troughs and/or weak frontal boundaries in the vicinity of the
region, expect chances for mainly afternoon/evening
showers/storms each day. Best chance for relatively widespread
showers/storms looks to be late in the week when low pressure
potentially impacts the region. Heat indices will mainly range
from the mid 90s to around 100s through the week. Warm and muggy
nights continue as well with lows ranging from the upper 60s to
mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 145 AM EDT Saturday...

Partly to mostly cloudy skies linger overnight with primarily
VFR CIGs. However, some MVFR CIGs are possible across portions
of SE VA and NE NC (ORF/PHF). CU redevelops Sat afternoon with
scattered showers and storms developing across SE VA/NE NC and
potentially extending up to the Eastern Shore as a cold front
approaches and stalls. Have gone with VCTS for now at
PHF/ORF/ECG and will refine timing in later TAFs. Winds remain
SSW/S through the period (locally higher in showers/storms). As
the front stalls inland and temps cool overnight, CIGs may lower
to MVFR Sat night. Unsettled weather continues through the week
with daily chances for showers/storms.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 AM EDT Saturday...

Key messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the coastal waters
north of Cape Charles for seas up to 5 feet and southerly wind gusts
up to 25 knots.

- There is a moderate rip risk for all area beaches today.

Early this morning, a weak cold front is located west of the local
area with winds out of the S to SSW ranging from 10 to 15 knots with
gusts around 20 knots. Seas are running around 4 to 5 feet north of
Cape Charles and 3 to 4 feet south. Waves in the Bay are generally
running around 2 feet.

Similar to yesterday, winds will increase during the
afternoon/evening hours with the highest winds over the coastal
waters/out 20 nm (occasional gusts to ~25 knots). Scattered showers
and thunderstorms will also fire up later this afternoon into the
first part of the night, a few of which may require Special Marine
Warnings due to strong wind gusts. The cold front will slowly
approach tonight, before stalling/dissipating over or near the local
waters on Sunday. Predominately sub-SCA winds are then expected
Sunday through early next week, generally running around 10 to 15
knots out of the S or SE. The next potential for marginal SCAs will
be Wednesday into Thursday as another cold front approaches from the
west. In typical summer-time fashion, the front will likely
dissipate over the local waters.

There is a moderate rip current risk at all area beaches today.
There is a moderate rip current risk for the northern beaches
tomorrow, with a low risk south.

&&

.CLIMATE...
No record highs set today 7/6. See below for actual high temps:

- RIC  99 (Record 102/2012)
- ORF  97 (Record 98/2012)
- SBY  94 (Record 102/2012)
- ECG  94 (Record 100/2012)


Record High Temperatures for Sat (July 6):

- RIC  105/1977
- ORF  102/1881
- SBY  102/2010
- ECG  99/2012


Record High Minimum Temperatures Through Sat (July 5-6)

           7/5       7/6
- RIC    79/2012   80/2012
- ORF    80/1999   80/1999
- SBY    81/2012   77/2012
- ECG    77/2018   78/1999

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT
     this evening for MDZ021>024.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for MDZ025.
NC...Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT
     this evening for NCZ012>017-030>032.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for NCZ102.
VA...Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT
     this evening for VAZ075>090-092-093-095>100-512>525.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-509>511.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...RMM
SHORT TERM...AM/RMM
LONG TERM...AM/RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...AJB
CLIMATE...