089
FXUS61 KAKQ 080716
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
316 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather continues through the week with daily chances for
scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms. More
widespread showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday
through Friday. Very warm and humid conditions continue through
much of the week as well. The highest heat indices are
expected on Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 150 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Areas of fog over the ocean N of Parramore Island continue to
  spread inland into adjacent portions of the eastern shore
  overnight.

A weak remnant frontal boundary has become nearly stationary
near the coast overnight and is progged to move back north as a
(very weak) warm front later tonight before eventually washing
out. Temps as of 140 AM ranged from the low-mid 70s for most of
the area with upper 70s along the coast under partly to mostly
cloudy skies. Clouds thicken overnight with lows a degree or
two cooler. Areas of fog over the ocean N of Parramore Island
continue to spread inland into adjacent portions of the eastern
shore overnight before lifting after sunrise. Apart from the
marine layer fog, additional patchy ground fog is possible
overnight across S central VA and NE NC. Some model guidance
suggests that isolated to scattered showers (and perhaps an
isolated storm) may develop around sunrise (similar to what
happened yesterday).

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 320 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers and storms are possible Monday through
  Wednesday, mainly during the afternoon and evening.

- Remaining humid with heat indices of 100-105F Monday.

- Dangerous heat indices in excess of 105F are possible on
  Tuesday and Wednesday, especially inland.

Upper ridging off the SE CONUS coast builds a by Tue as a trough
picks up the remnants of Beryl over the Arklatex region late Mon
into Tue. This will result in slight height rises over the FA with
low- level southerly flow as today`s front washes out to our north.
The height rises will be a bit more pronounced on Tuesday. As such,
high temps will be back to the lower-mid 90s on Mon (and perhaps a
degree or two warmer on Tuesday). CAMs continue to show the
potential for isolated-scattered convection Monday aftn-early
evening (mainly W of the Ches Bay), and will keep PoPs in the 30-50%
range for these areas. Not expecting more than isolated storms on
Mon near the immediate coast. With fairly strong sfc heating and the
lack of deep-layer shear, these will be the typical summertime pulse
storms that could produce localized heavy rain/gusty winds. Tuesday
will feature less in the way of aftn/evening tstms with the rising
heights (PoPs are no higher than 30%...highest along and west of I-
95).

With temps in the low-mid 90s both days (hottest inland), heat
indices will be on the rise yet again. Max heat index values will
generally be 100-105F on Monday with readings aoa 105F looking
likely across interior portions of the FA on Tue. Therefore, Heat
Advisories will likely be needed on Tue for a good part of the FA.
The remnants of Beryl track toward the Great Lakes on Wed with weak
SW flow aloft over VA/NC in between Beryl and upper ridging
offshore. Heights fall very slightly with temps similar to Tue along
with isolated to widely scattered aftn/evening tstms (highest
chances are in the Piedmont). Can`t rule out heat headlines on Wed
(especially inland) where max heat indices are forecast to be ~105F.
Lows in the low-mid 70s both nights.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 320 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Near normal temperatures and very humid conditions continue
  through next week.

- Remaining unsettled with daily chances for showers and storms.

- The highest precipitation chances will be from late Thursday
through Friday evening. While the threat for severe weather looks to
be limited, locally heavy rainfall is possible late this week.

Unsettled wx is expected late this week into the weekend weak S-SW
flow aloft continues across the area in between broader troughing to
the NW and ridging offshore. The remnants of Beryl lift NE into srn
Quebec by Friday with direct rainfall from the system remaining to
the NW of the local area. PWs likely remain at or above 2.0" through
the week, allowing for very humid conditions. Meanwhile, a shortwave
may track along the southwestern periphery of the offshore ridge
before turning to the N and tracking across the local area late
Thursday through Friday evening. As a result, scattered to numerous
showers/tstms are expected Thu aftn and evening, with showers and a
few tstms likely continuing Thu night and through much of Fri/Fri
evening before potentially tapering off by late Friday night as the
shortwave exits the area. More typical diurnally driven tstms are
expected next weekend. While there likely won`t be as much of a
severe threat, locally heavy rainfall is possible through the week,
especially Thursday through Friday evening. Have likely PoPs for
Thu/Fri with slight chance to chance PoPs next weekend.

Highs Thu in the upper 80s-lower 90s, dropping to the 85-90F range
for Fri-Sat. Lows mainly between 70-75F through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 145 AM EDT Monday...

Cloud cover increases overnight with mainly VFR CIGs apart from
MVFR/IFR CIGs across S central VA. These lower CIGs may reach
ORF. Marine layer fog has already moved onshore the Eastern
Shore with MVFR VIS expected to drop to IFR later tonight at
SBY. Additional patchy ground fog is possible across S central
VA and NE NC overnight. Fog lifts shortly after sunrise with VIS
improving to VFR. Similar to yesterday, isolated to scattered
showers (and potentially storms) are possible around sunrise
with greater coverage of scattered showers and storms in the
afternoon. IFR VIS is possible with any showers/storms.
Showers/storms taper off by the evening with a return of VFR
conditions under partly to mostly cloudy skies.

Unsettled weather continues through the week with daily chances
for showers/storms (mainly during the afternoon/evening
timeframe).

&&

.MARINE...
As of 315 AM EDT Monday...

Key messages:

- Marine Dense Fog Advisory in effect through 7 AM this morning for
ocean zones from Fenwick to Parramore Island for VSBYs less than 1
NM.

- Generally benign, sub-SCA conditions are expected through Tuesday.

- SCA conditions are possible Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
due to increasing southerly winds.

Early this morning, a weak front is located over the local waters
with winds out of the SW ranging from 5 to 10 knots. Seas are
running around 2 feet and waves in the Chesapeake Bay are running
around 1 foot.

A weak front will remain near the waters through tomorrow as it
gradually dissipates over the area. Winds will generally remain out
of the S to SSE and continue to run around 10 knots. Brief increases
in wind speeds to around 10 to 15 knots will be possible both this
afternoon and Tuesday afternoon due to afternoon sea breezes. Seas
will average 2 to 3 feet and waves in the bay 1 to 2 feet through
this timeframe.

Southerly winds increase Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening
ahead of another approaching cold front from the northwest. Local
wind probs are maximized Wednesday evening through Wednesday night,
showing a decent potential for gusts of 20 to 25 knots over the
ocean and Chesapeake Bay. In addition, seas will increase to 4 to 5
feet and waves in the bay increase to 2 to 3 feet Wednesday night.
SCAs will likely be needed for at least the ocean and bay starting
Wednesday afternoon. Southerly winds continue to gust around 20 to
25 knots through the day Thursday, before gradually diminishing
Thursday night. Sub-SCA conditions then likely return late this week
into this weekend.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ650-652.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERI
NEAR TERM...LKB/RMM
SHORT TERM...ERI/RMM
LONG TERM...ERI/RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...AJB