539
FXUS61 KAKQ 161935
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
335 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions prevail through Wednesday. An
unsettled period returns late Wednesday through Thursday, as a
cold front pushes through the area and stalls across the
Carolinas. Shower chances focus mainly over southern Virginia
and North Carolina Friday, then return to all zones by Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 330 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect until 8 PM for much of
Southeast Virginia and Northeast North Carolina. A Heat Advisory
remains in effect for the rest of the area with the exception of the
MD beaches.

- There is a Marginal Risk of severe weather late this afternoon
through this evening for much of the area. Damaging wind gusts are
the main threat with any stronger storms.

Similar to the past couple of days, Bermuda high pressure remains
anchored well offshore with a surface trough just east of the Blue
Ridge mountains. So far we have struggled to even get much of a cu
field over the region this afternoon with dry air lingering just off
the surface and in the mid levels. As a result, any showers or
storms that are able to develop this evening will likely be isolated
to widely scattered in nature, as shown by the various CAMs. It
should be noted that there is plenty of instability over the region
(SBCAPE of 4000+ J/kg and MLCAPE of 2000+ J/kg), as well as DCAPE in
excess of 1500 J/kg over our western counties. Thus, any storm that
is able to form will have the potential to produce damaging wind
gusts. SPC has much of the northern and western portions of the area
highlighted in a Day 1 Marginal Risk for severe weather.

Any shower/storm chances come to an end later this evening, with
partly cloudy skies overnight. Temperatures remain warm tonight with
lows only falling back into the mid 70s to upper 70s (around 80 in
the urban areas).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Remaining hot Wednesday and humid area-wide but with a higher
coverage of storms by afternoon. Heat Advisories are in effect for
the entire area with the exception of the MD beaches.

- Showers/storms become fairly widespread late Wednesday/Wednesday
night through Thursday.

- There is a Slight Risk for severe weather across the northern
  half of the forecast area Wednesday, with a Marginal Risk
  elsewhere.

Better forcing tomorrow as a cold front begins to approach from the
northwest and the strong upper ridge over the region begins to break
down. Latest CAMs for tomorrow have storms beginning to fire late
morning into the early afternoon along a lee trough just east of the
Blue Ridge mountains, becoming more widespread and advancing further
east later tomorrow afternoon through the evening hours. Even though
mid level lapse rates are on the weaker side tomorrow and bulk shear
will only be on the order of ~20 to 30 knots (greater than we have
seen as of late), we will have plenty of instability over the region
with MLCAPE climbing in excess of 2000 J/kg by tomorrow afternoon.
Storms will primarily be mainly be linear clusters, but a marginal
supercell or two cannot be ruled out. The main threat with the
strongest storms tomorrow will be damaging wind gusts. SPC has
highlighted the northern half of the forecast area in a Slight Risk
for severe weather and a Marginal Risk elsewhere. In addition to the
severe weather threat, there will also be a localized heavy rain
threat as moisture pools ahead of the front, and PWATs surge to
2.25+".

It will also be one more hot day tomorrow, with temperatures
climbing into the mid to upper 90s combined with dewpoints in the
mid to upper 70s, making it feel like 105-109 degrees. A few
locations may approach or exceed 110F+, but lower confidence
tomorrow compared to today, especially with more cloud cover and
increasing shower/storm chances. All of the area has been included
in a Heat Advisory for tomorrow with the only exception being the MD
beaches.

The cold front gradually pushes south through the region Wednesday
night and through the day Thursday, before eventually stalling near
the NC/VA border Thursday night. Highest shower/storm chances will
be focused across the southern half of the area on Thursday. Locally
heavy rainfall will be possible, with a Day 2 Slight Risk ERO for
far southern Virginia and northeast North Carolina. There is a
Marginal ERO for the remainder of the forecast area. Widespread
clouds and rain on Thursday will keep temperatures in the 80s. The
front pushes just south of the local area Thursday night into
Friday, with the highest rain chances confined to the southern
areas. Drying out for the northern half of the area Friday, with
only scattered shower and storm chances by Friday afternoon. High
temperatures will again be in the 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Daily rain chances persist as the front lifts back north and
stalls over the southeastern portion of the area.

- Temperatures look to stay near normal.

Upper trough moving into New England looks to flatten out later
Friday while the area of high pressure off the Southeast coast
begins to gradually retrograde back westward slightly. The front is
forecast to lift back north into the southeastern portion of the
area and stall out into Saturday. The best rain chances Friday night
will be across northeast North Carolina in the vicinity of the
boundary, then chances spread back north on Saturday as the front
shifts. The higher rain/storm chances on Saturday will be south of
the I-64 corridor. A positively tilted trough will start to dip down
into the mid Mississippi Valley on Sunday allowing our flow to
become more southwesterly. The stalled front won`t move very much,
so rain chances look to remain fairly similar into early next week,
with the southern half of the area having the best chance for
rain/storms. After a brief, partial break from the humidity
(especially up north), 70+ degree dewpoints will stream back into
the area for this forecast period making it feel humid once again.
The somewhat good news is that temperatures aren`t expected to be
nearly as hot during the extended period as they have been, with
high temperatures forecast to top out in the mid to upper 80s, which
is right around or even slightly below normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 125 PM EDT Tuesday...

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 18z
TAF period. Still looking at the potential for a few isolated to
widely scattered showers or thunderstorms later this afternoon
through this evening but the overall coverage is too low to
include into the forecast. Some lingering higher clouds this
afternoon, with FEW-SCT cumulus developing later this afternoon.
Winds are generally out of the SSW 10-15kt (with gusts ~20kt).
Skies become mainly clear overnight.

Outlook: A cold front approaches from the NW Wednesday afternoon with
increasing chances for showers/tstms later Wednesday afternoon
into Wednesday night with a continued chance of showers/tstms.
Periodic flight restrictions are expected later Wednesday into
Thursday. The front will push farther S on Friday as drier air
attempts to push in from the NW, and then the boundary lifts
back N Saturday. The chance for showers/tstms is less Friday
(except over far SE VA/NE NC) and then increases again Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Southwesterly winds will increase overnight into Wednesday as the
pressure gradient tightens ahead of an approaching cold front.

-Rain chances return later Wednesday into Thursday, then remain a
daily chance as the front stalls out across the area.

High pressure remains well offshore this afternoon with some lee
troughing persisting over the local area. South/southwesterly winds
of 12-16kt will prevail into the overnight hours and Saturday
morning. An approaching cold front could help tighten the pressure
gradient a bit over the local waters, especially the southern Bay
tonight and early Saturday. Guidance continues to cap speeds right
at the bottom-end of SCA thresholds for only a few hours, so
refrained from issuing any headlines at this point. Winds will
subside slightly in the Bay during the day, while the coastal waters
will have southerly winds of 15-18kt into early Thursday. Waves in
the Bay will become 2-3ft, with seas building to 4-5ft across the
north and 3-4ft down south with the elevated southerly wind. Rain
and storm chances also increase tomorrow and Thursday as the front
moves in. There will be the threat of gusty winds with any stronger
storm that develops.

Conditions subside late Thursday and Friday as winds become
north/northeasterly at 8-12kt behind the front. Seas will be 2-3ft
with 1-2ft waves in the Bay through the weekend. With the front
stalling over the local area, expect daily rain and storm chances
to continue. It won`t be as hot as it has been, but humidity will
likely remain higher.

Rip current risk remains low at all beaches today. The rip risk
increases to moderate at the northern beaches (including Ocean City)
Wednesday and Thursday. For now, kept southern beaches at a low
risk.

&&

.CLIMATE...
No record highs or record high mins were set Monday, records are
possible today and Wed.

- Record Highs:

- Site:  Tue 7/16     Wed 7/17

- RIC:   101 (1980)   100 (1980)
- ORF:   102 (1879)   100 (1887)
- SBY:    99 (1915)    99 (2012)
- ECG:    98 (1995)    99 (1942)

- Record High Mins:

- Site:  Tue 7/16    Wed 7/17

- RIC:    77 (1983)   76 (2005)
- ORF:    80 (1995)   80 (2021)
- SBY:    78 (2013)   80 (1983)
- ECG:    79 (2012)   80 (2019)

- Highest 1-hr Heat Index Value on record (P.O.R. 1948-2024):

- RIC:   117 (7/17/1980)
- ORF:   118 (8/18/2017)
- SBY:   122 (7/15/1995)
- ECG:   119 (7/5/1999)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ021>024.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for MDZ021>024.
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ012-102.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NCZ012>017-
     030>032-102.
     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     NCZ013>017-030>032.
VA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ048-060>062-
     064>069-075>089-092-099-100-509>522.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for VAZ048-
     060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-509>525.
     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ090-
     093-095>098-523>525.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...AJB/LKB
LONG TERM...LKB/JKP
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...JKP/RHR
CLIMATE...