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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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157 FXUS61 KAKQ 171808 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 208 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An unsettled period begins late this afternoon through Thursday, as a cold front pushes through the area and stalls across the Carolinas. Shower chances focus mainly over southern Virginia and North Carolina Friday, then return to all zones by Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 200 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Heat Advisories remain in effect for the entire area today (other than the MD beaches). - Showers/storms become fairly widespread this evening into tonight. - There is a Slight Risk for severe weather roughly along and north of US-460 with a Marginal Risk for most of the remainder of the CWA. This afternoon, high pressure remains anchored well off the SE coast to Bermuda. Meanwhile, a lee trough is in place just to the east of the Blue Ridge and a cold front is well NW of the region over portions of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. The cold front remains well to the NW of the area into tonight, with storms developing on the lee trough with strong low level destabilization (ML CAPE ranging from 1500 to 2000 J/kg). Mid level lapse rates are quite weak and with the hot humid airmass, hail will be unlikely. Deep layer shear increases to a modest 20 to 30 knots later this afternoon across the northern half of the area as the mid level flow increases with the approach of the upper trough. Storms will primarily be linear clusters and somewhat disorganized, but a marginal supercell or two cannot be ruled out, along with bowing segments. The primary threat with the strongest storms will be damaging wind gusts. SPC continues with the northern half of the forecast area in a Slight Risk for severe weather and a Marginal Risk elsewhere (technically only GEN thunder along the Albemarle sound). In addition to the severe weather threat, there will also be a localized heavy rain threat as moisture pools ahead of the front, with PWATs surging to 2.2+", though the best chances for widespread heavy rain into tonight are still expected to be mainly north of the forecast area. Showers/storms gradually diminish by or shortly after midnight, with lingering showers and embedded storms possible overnight (but with little SVR threat). Lows in the lower 70s NW to the mid-upper 70s SE. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 350 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Marginal SVR risk Thursday central and south. Heavy rain threat, primarily across the SE. On Thursday, PoPs ramp back up in the mid/late morning as the actual cold front pushes into the region, gradually moving south through the day Thursday, before eventually stalling near the NC/VA border Thursday night. Highest shower/storm chances will be focused across the southern half of the area on Thursday. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible, with a Day 2 Slight Risk ERO for far southern Virginia and northeast North Carolina. where much of the guidance is forecasting in excess of 2" of QPF. Also, the 00Z/17 HREF probability matched means have a 50% chc for 3"/3hr centered over NE NC Thu aftn with 30% probs up into SE VA. There is a Marginal ERO for the remainder of the forecast area, but expect showers to diminish in coverage and intensity over the north by late aftn. Widespread clouds and rain on Thursday will keep temperatures mainly in the 80s, though a few spots could reach 90F if the morning remains mostly dry with some partial sunshine. The front pushes just south of the local area Thursday night into Friday, with the highest rain chances confined to the southern areas. With some clearing and drier air/lower dew pts, lows Thu night drop into the low-mid 60s NW, with lower 70s SE (where its stays humid with more clouds). Drying out for the northern half of the area Friday, with only scattered shower and storm chances by Friday afternoon (over the south). Partly sunny N and mostly cloudy S with high temperatures mainly in the low-mid 80s (more comfortable N and central where dew pts will be in the 60s). && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 400 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Daily rain chances persist as the front lifts back north and stalls over the southeastern portion of the area. - Temperatures look to stay near normal. The upper trough moving into New England looks to flatten out later Friday while the area of high pressure off the Southeast coast begins to gradually retrograde back westward slightly. The front is forecast to lift back north into the southeastern portion of the area and stall out into Saturday. The best rain chances Friday night will be across northeast North Carolina in the vicinity of the boundary, then chances spread back north on Saturday as the front shifts. The higher rain/storm chances on Saturday will be south of the I-64 corridor. A positively tilted trough will start to dip down into the mid Mississippi Valley on Sunday allowing our flow to become more southwesterly. The stalled front won`t move very much, but it does become a bit more diffuse on Sunday so generally should see rain chances focus in the aftn/evening rather than all day. Variable cloudy and a bit warmer with highs in the mid 80s to around 90F. Remaining a bit unsettled into early next week, with the southern and western portions of the area having the best chance for rain/storms. After a brief, partial break from the humidity (especially up north), 70+ degree dewpoints will stream back into the area for this forecast period making it feel humid once again. The somewhat good news is that temperatures aren`t expected to be nearly as hot during the extended period as they have been, with high temperatures Mon-Tue forecast to top out in the mid to upper 80s to near 90F, which is right around or even slightly below normal for this time of year. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 200 PM EDT Wednesday... Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop later this afternoon through this evening, bringing localized sub-VFR conditions. The best thunderstorm chances are initially focused near ts Albemarle Sound, with VCTS at ECG. Otherwise, scattered showers and storms will mainly be W of the terminals until late in the afternoon, have mention of VCTS starting in the 22-00Z timeframe, with prevailing SHRA at all but ECG starting ~00Z and thereafter into tonight. Overall, SHRA/TSRA diminish overnight. Gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rain will be possible with any storms, with IFR- LIFR flight restrictions in VSBY. Gusty winds in excess of 40kt will be possible in the storms as well, especially at RIC/SBY. Showers and storms taper off from W to E later tonight as forcing weakens. The cold front lags back to the NW into Thu morning, then pushes S through the FA on Thu with scattered to numerous showers and storms redeveloping. Periodic flight restrictions (mainly VSBYs) are expected due to locally heavy rain along with gusty winds. Outlook: The front will push farther S Thu night into Friday as drier air pushes in from the NW. The boundary lifts back N Saturday. The chance for showers/tstms is less Friday (except over far SE VA/NE NC) and then increases again Saturday. Sunday will see scattered, mainly aftn/evening showers/storms. && .MARINE... As of 315 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River this morning. - Winds and seas increase again this evening with SCA conditions likely in the Chesapeake Bay as well as the Atlantic waters north of Cape Charles Light. Bermuda high pressure remains dominant offshore with a lee trough over inland areas. The gradient between these features has tightened enough to justify marginal SCA headlines in the Ches Bay as well as the lower James River this morning with SW winds 15-20 kt and a few gusts to 25 kt. Winds are expected to fall back to 10-15 kt by mid morning. The surface trough will sharpen this afternoon with the potential for increased coverage of showers and storms into this evening. Will hold off on additional headlines for the bay/James for now but a period of SW 15-20 kt winds is likely late this afternoon into the overnight hours. Confidence in seeing 4-6 ft seas in the northern coastal waters has increased enough to hoist SCA headlines from this afternoon into early Thursday. Elevated seas should be rather short-lived with seas averaging 2-4 ft from late Thursday morning through early next week. Guidance continues to slow the frontal passage across the region Thursday with additional showers and storms likely south of the boundary Thursday afternoon. Still think the front will move south of the waters on Friday with N or NE winds 5-10 kt behind the boundary. Sub-SCA winds/waves/seas look to persist well into next week. A moderate rip current risk is forecast today and tomorrow for the northern beaches (including Ocean City). Low rip risk today and Thursday for VA Beach into the northern NC OBX. && .CLIMATE... A record high min temperature was tied yesterday/Tue 7/16 at SBY. Records are listed below for today/Wed 7/17. Record highs are unlikely and although record high mins may be challenged, showers and storms late in the day/tonight may lead to calendar date mins lower than what is observed this morning. - Record Highs: - Site: Wed 7/17 - RIC: 100 (1980) - ORF: 100 (1887) - SBY: 99 (2012) - ECG: 99 (1942) - Record High Mins: - Site: Wed 7/17 - RIC: 76 (2005) - ORF: 80 (2021) - SBY: 80 (1983) - ECG: 80 (2019) - Highest 1-hr Heat Index Value on record (P.O.R. 1948-2024): - RIC: 117 (7/17/1980) - ORF: 118 (8/18/2017) - SBY: 122 (7/15/1995) - ECG: 119 (7/5/1999) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ021>024. NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ012>017- 030>032-102. VA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ048-060>062- 064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-509>525. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ654. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJB/LKB NEAR TERM...AJB SHORT TERM...LKB LONG TERM...LKB/JKP AVIATION...AJB MARINE...RHR CLIMATE...