880
FXUS61 KAKQ 191858
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
258 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front over NC will lift back north late tonight into
Saturday, bringing unsettled conditions back to most of the
area with locally heavy rainfall possible. Somewhat unsettled
conditions are expected through much of next week with scattered
mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each
day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 300 PM EDT Friday...

Key messages:

- Scattered showers and storms through early this evening will end
around sunset.

- Additional showers/storms will move into the area late
  tonight.

Latest radar imagery shows showers and isolated storms along the
cold front just south of the VA/NC border, with another area of
downpours along I-95 south of Richmond associated with a nose of
higher instability (500-1000 j/kg MLCAPE) extending northward.
Outside of the frontal boundary, there is not much forcing for these
downpours. However, we could certainly see some locally heavy
rainfall this afternoon as there is very little movement to the
individual cells. Will need to monitor for any localized flooding
especially in areas that received significant rainfall over the
last few days.

Otherwise, any shower/storm activity should diminish this evening
with loss of daytime heating.  The front to the south will start to
return back north later tonight in response to the upper wave over
TX and LA moving NE. Will therefore bring likely PoPs to the far SW
late tonight with the rest of the area (except the MD eastern shore)
chance PoPs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages...

- Unsettled on Saturday with locally heavy rain possible
  especially south of I-64.

- Warmer on Sunday with scattered showers/storms especially far
  southern VA and NE NC.

Latest CAMS are show a fairly good signal of locally heavy rainfall
in central or southern Virginia Saturday afternoon as the frontal
boundary hangs up over somewhere over southern VA or northern NC.
The area of heavy rainfall will be highly defendant on where
this front stalls out, but the consensus is that there will be
an area of heavy rain generally along US-460 tomorrow afternoon
as a weak low develops along the front helping to increase
moisture convergence along with precipitable water values
forecast at 2.2". At this time, will hold off on any flood watch
as the highest QPF is forecast to occur where lesser precip has
fallen the past few days. However, will need to monitor this
closely as a shift southward in the heavier precip would
possibly require a flood watch.

There is also a marginal risk for severe weather tomorrow afternoon
mainly southside and SE VA and NE NC. With the upper short wave
moving overhead, the mid level flow increases to 30-40 kt which
helps deep shear to increase to about 35 kt. There will likely be
some breaks in the clouds in the SE on Saturday as well with MLCAPE
values forecast to be around 1000 j/kg (although the breaks in the
clouds are uncertain). Although the mid level lapse rates will be
quite weak, there is a potential for bowing segments leading to
localized damaging wind gusts where there is some destabilization.

Highs tomorrow will end up below normal for much of the area due to
the excessive clouds. It will still be quite humid with dew points
in the 70s, but expect highs to the in the upper 70s/lower 80s north
and mid-upper 80s south.

After the frontal passage Sat night, the front will stall out once
again near or just south of the VA/NC border. Precipitable water
values drop to below 2" for at least the northern part of the
forecast area. Will therefore go with a dry forecast later Sat night
into Sunday morning for much of the area north of the VA/NC border.
Will need to keep chance PoPs south due to the proximity of the
front. Sunday afternoon, expect scattered showers and storms to
develop with the best concentration in NC. Highs on Sunday rise back
into the mid-upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Somewhat unsettled through the week with mainly afternoon and
evening showers/thunderstorms.

- Daytime temperatures near normal, but it will be rather humid
through the week.

With the Bermuda high anchored offshore and SW flow aloft for much
of the week, we will not see much change in the weather next week.
Showers and storms will be favored mainly in the afternoon and
evening hours with convection developing inland then moving toward
the coast by evening. Precipitable water values stay around 2" all
week, with surface dew points in the low to mid 70s. This will allow
for the potential for heavy rainfall at any time or place in the
forecast area, but there is no way to pin down any specifics at this
point. As such, will mostly go with likely PoPs each afternoon Mon-
Wed with chance PoPs Thu and Friday. It is interesting that the NBM
24 hour QPF probabilities show a 10-20% probability of over an
inch of rain throughout the week, but then only a 50-70%
probability of 0.01". This implies that there is the potential
for heavy rainfall at any given time, but also suggests that it
could stay dry.

Daytime temperatures are expected to stay near normal in the upper
80s to around 90 all well. However, with the deep moisture and high
dew points, lows will struggle to drop below the lower 70s all week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Friday...

Outside of ECG, VFR conditions should prevail this afternoon into
this evening. Due to the proximity of the frontal boundary, ECG will
occasionally have showers/storms with brief flight restrictions.
Most places will like be VFR this evening, however late tonight into
Saturday morning MVFR conditions are expected at all terminals
except SBY due to increased low level moisture and rain moving into
the area.

Outlook: The boundary lifts back N Saturday with showers
and tstms scattered N to likely S. Sunday will see scattered, mainly
aftn/evening showers/storms.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- A warm front lifts north through the area Saturday, bringing light
and variable winds.

- Prevailing sub-advisory conditions are expected to continue
through at least early next week, although afternoon/evening
thunderstorms are possible each day.

A stationary front has settled just S of the waters this afternoon.
This is leading to E/ENE flow around 10 kt across the waters. The
highest coverage of showers/storms is expected to remain W of the
coastal waters and Chesapeake Bay through this evening, but cannot
rule out some brief thunderstorm activity. Otherwise, the front will
lift back N through the area early Saturday, with perhaps a weak low
also riding along the front. Thus, the wind direction may become
quite variable Saturday (should average E/SE, however). There is a
better chance for thunderstorms in the afternoon Saturday and could
produce locally higher winds/seas/waves. Light and variable winds
are expected Sunday with continuing shower/storm chances. S/SW winds
become more established Monday and especially the middle of next
week as the pressure gradient tightens. It still looks to remain
predominantly sub-SCA through the period, outside of any SMWs from
convection. Waves in the bay average 1-2 ft while seas on the
coastal waters average 2-3 ft. Seas increase to around 4 ft across
the northern waters mid-late week.

A low rip risk is forecast today at all beaches, trending toward
moderate across northern beaches tomorrow (Saturday).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RHR/MRD
NEAR TERM...MRD
SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...SW