916
FXUS61 KAKQ 101944
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
344 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An unsettled weather pattern is expected to persist through
the weekend, with isolated to scattered thunderstorms each day.
The potential for afternoon thunderstorms will continue early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 345 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue from this
  afternoon into tonight.

- While storm coverage will be much less today than it was yesterday,
  some spots will see an additional 2-3" of rain, which would
  likely result in flash flooding.

- The Flood Watch remains through tonight given the wet antecedent
  conditions.

Current radar analysis shows heavy rain and a few strong storms in
SE VA and NE NC. Multiple flood warnings are in effect for this area
as 1-3" inches have already fallen in this area. This is the current
area to watch into tonight as storms continue to train over the SE
VA/NE NC. More isolated showers and storms are throughout the rest
of the FA. An upper trough axis is moving through the area,
triggering the lift needed for these storms and showers. PWAT values
remain in the 90th percentile of climo for this time of year, as the
moist air mass remains over the region, allowing these storms to be
rain efficient. However, coverage will be less than yesterday and
the day before. A strong storm or two cannot be ruled out in the SE
VA/NE NC with damaging winds as moist grounds may make trees more
susceptible to fall. Storms will likely move further inland later
this afternoon/tonight after the sea breeze dissipates. The Flood
Watch remains in place for the area that received the most rain over
the last two days as it won`t take much additional rainfall to cause
flash flooding in those area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Isolated thunderstorms are still expected from Friday through
  Sunday as the unsettled pattern continues.

- Highly localized flooding remains a threat through the weekend.

The upper trough axis finally shifts to our east on Friday. As a
result, we finally start to see some upper height rises, which
should continue through the weekend and result in lower PoP chances.
However, diurnally driven tstms will continue each day from Friday-
Sunday as the environment will still be uncapped and moist. However,
the storm coverage will be less than today. With the saturated
grounds from yesterday and today, flooding can`t be ruled out for
Friday through the weekend as PWAT values are expected to be above
the 90th percentile for this time of year. A few spots could see 1-
3" locally. Any flooding will be highly local, compared to recent
events. A few damaging wind gusts are possible on Friday, primarily
in the VA piedmont, but at this time is a low-end threat.
Temperatures will be around the seasonal averages.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

- Staying seasonably warm and humid from early-mid next week with
  mainly afternoon/evening storm chances persisting.

A more seasonable weather pattern is expected to continue from early
to middle part of the week. The upper level ridge builds in the SE
CONUS along with fast zonal flow aloft in the northern US, which
will help bring back the typical summer afternoon diurnal showers
and storms each day. These showers and storms are expected to be
more isolated to scattered in nature. Exact details are difficult to
pinpoint this far out, but the main concern with any storms will
likely be localized flash flooding given the rain expected from
today-Saturday. Highs each day will be around seasonal averages for
this time of year (upper 80s/around 90F).

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Thursday...

MVFR and VFR prevail as showers and storms have ramped up over the
last few hours near all terminals. The scattered showers and storms
are currently near the shoreline and Eastern Shore, but may move
further inland later this afternoon...and overall, will have less
coverage of convection than yesterday. These storms and showers will
last until about 03-04z and can bring brief gusty winds and LIFR
VSBYs. Behind the rain, CIGs will rise to VFR conditions, but will
likely fall back to MVFR right before sunrise as lower clouds/fog
builds in. Any patchy fog/lower CIGs will dissipate by
13-15z/11.

Outlook: Isolated to scattered afternoon-late evening tstms are
expected from Fri through the weekend, along with the potential
for early morning ground fog/stratus.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 345 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions continue outside of local
  influences from afternoon and evening storms.

Sub-advisory conditions continue into the weekend as the area
remains between a weak surface trough over inland areas and high
pressure well east into the Atlantic. Winds remain light (outside of
any convection) at SE 5-10 kt with gusts up to 15 kt. Another round
of showers and storms is expected this afternoon and evening, with
convection already occuring in the mouth of the Ches. Bay. Coverage
of convection is expected to be a bit more sparse today but locally
enhanced winds/waves, frequent lightning, and reduced visibility can
be expected to accompany any storms this afternoon and evening.
Similar conditions are expected Friday into the weekend with sub-SCA
winds and daily shower/storm chances. Latest guidance does show the
potential for a back door front to impact the waters late in the
weekend with flow becoming NE or E behind the boundary before S flow
resumes into early next week. Waves in the Chesapeake will average 1-
2 ft with seas 2-3 ft into this weekend.

There is a Low Rip Current risk at all area beaches today.
Southeast swell energy does increase a bit on Friday, especially
for the northern beaches, but will maintain a low rip risk for
now. Also of note is the extended period of upwelling along the
northern NC OBX that has resulted in a prolonged period of water
temperatures only in the mid 60s. These conditions are likely
to persist with continued SW flow over the coming days.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Friday for MDZ021>025.
NC...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Friday for NCZ012.
VA...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Friday for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-
     075>090-092-509>523.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERI
NEAR TERM...ERI/KMC
SHORT TERM...ERI/KMC
LONG TERM...ERI/KMC
AVIATION...ERI/KMC
MARINE...KMC/RHR