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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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139 FXUS61 KAKQ 160718 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 318 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Another hot stretch of weather prevails through most of Wednesday. An unsettled period returns late Wednesday through Thursday, as a cold front pushes through the area and stalls across the Carolinas. Shower chances focus mainly over southern Virginia and North Carolina Friday, then return to all zones by Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 935 PM EDT Monday... Key Message: - Warm and humid overnight with a light south to southwest wind. Convection failed to make it into our area earlier today with another warm and humid evening. All heat headlines were allowed to expire at 8 PM, and Excessive Heat Warnings/Heat Advisories remain in effect for nearly the entire area on Tuesday. No major changes to the going forecast with the evening update. Previous Discussion as of 330 PM EDT... GOES water vapor channels depict westerly flow aloft across the Mid-Atlantic on the northern periphery of a broad ridge that extends from the Southeast CONUS into the subtropical western Atlantic. The initial surface trough over the region has pushed offshore with another lee-side trough developing this afternoon. Dewpoints actually mixed down into the mid/upper 60s from central VA into SE VA in the wake of that feature, but are slowly beginning to recover. Temperatures are in the lower to mid 90s for much of the area. Heat Indices are generally 100-105F, slightly lower than originally forecast due to the lower dewpoints pushing farther east. However, there are still a few more hours of peak heating and dewpoints are nudging up, so there will be no changes to the heat headlines, which continue through 8 PM. Given the drier airmass, there is less coverage of CU this afternoon, tstms are expected to be very limited in coverage with PoPs only ~20% for the far NW Piedmont and NE NC near the Albemarle Sound. Otherwise, warm and humid tonight with lows in the lower 70s W, to mid/upper 70s E. Otherwise, warm and humid tonight with lows in the lower 70s W, to mid/upper 70s E. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Monday... Key messages: - Excessive Heat Warning Tuesday for Southeast Virginia and much of Northeast North Carolina - Heat Advisory for the remainder of the area with the exception of the MD beaches. - Remaining hot Wednesday and humid area-wide but with a higher coverage of storms by afternoon (heat headlines are likely for some of the area but details are more uncertain). The combination of heat and humidity peaks Tuesday, as the core of the upper ridge becomes centered well off the SE coast. The consensus is for 850mb temperatures similar to today (21-22C), with slightly higher humidity given the favorable location of the upper ridge off the SE coast to Bermuda. However, the 15/12z guidance has nudge dewpoints down slightly, with inland areas in the upper 60s/around 70F during peak heating, and 72-75F closer to and along the coast. Therefore, with highs again into the mid/upper 90s to around 100F, peak heat indices of 105-109F are expected for much of the area and 110F+ are expected to prevail over SE VA and NE NC. An Excessive Heat Warning has been issued for SE VA and much of NE NC (Heat Advisory for Northampton, NC and Outer Banks Currituck), with a Heat Advisory for the remainder of the area with the exception of no heat headline for the MD beaches. Limited rain chances again, with the CAMs a bit split on where the highest chances will be. Overall, there is a bit higher chc over the southern piedmont, but generally PoPs are 15-20%, with less the 15% along the Atlantic Coast of the Eastern Shore. Warm and humid again Tuesday night (probably the warmest night with lows 75-80F). The models remain in decent agreement that Wednesday will be the last day of hot conditions as the upper ridge eventually breaks down, as a strong upper trough translates SE from north central US to the Great Lakes. Dew pts will be more uniform area-wide (in the mid 70s inland with upper 70s SE), due to moisture pooling along a pre- frontal trough. Highs will be a few degrees less Wednesday (mid- upper 90s) but the higher dew pts may lead to similar heat indices with 110F+ possible in the E and SE. 15/12z guidance is a little more aggressive with showers/tstms later Wednesday aftn into Wednesday evening, especially across the N. A few stronger tstms are possible initially given a well mixed BL and a high pw airmass. Continued warm and humid Wednesday night with lows in the lower to mid 70s and the potential for showers and embedded tstms lingering overnight as a cold front approaches from the NW. Models remain in fairly good agreement that the upper level trough pushes from the upper Great Lakes to New England Thursday, but flattens out to the south as it approaches the strong/persistent upper level ridge anchored well offshore of the SE US coast. The highest chances for showers/storms Thursday (~70%) will be for southern VA/NE NC, with 50-60% N). Locally heavy rainfall will certainly be possible during this timeframe. Highs Thursday will be highly dependent upon the timing of the front, for now expecting mid 80s to near 90F. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 PM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - Heaviest rain pushes south Thursday night as cold front stalls just south of the area on Friday. - Daily scattered rain chances persist as the front lifts back north into the area. Upper trough will move from the Great Lakes into New England Thursday night into early Friday. A shortwave will also slide by during the same timeframe, helping push the cold front just south of our CWA. This will make the highest rain chances move further southeast late Thursday evening. Slightly drier air will attempt to push into the northern tier of the area on Friday as high pressure drops into the Great Lakes/western New England region. Dewpoints across the north look to fall into the low to mid 60s on Friday, and with high temperatures in the mid 80s, it will be a fairly pleasant day. On the other hand, southern/southeastern locations will keep the humidity in place allowing rain and storm chances to continue on Friday. Models then indicate that the area of high pressure offshore will retrograde back to the west closer to the Southeast coast by the weekend. The stalled front will then lift back north into the local area keeping daily scattered rain chances in place. Dewpoints in the 70s will creep back northward, but thankfully temperatures will remain in the upper 80s for the weekend keeping the excessive heat/humidity somewhat at bay. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 740 PM EDT Monday... VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 00z TAF period. Mainly clear tonight-Tue AM with SCT cumulus developing Tue aftn. There is a slight chc of a tstm Tue aftn-evening (PoPs ~20%). The wind should generally be SSW 5-10kt tonight, then SW 10-15kt (with gusts to 20kt) late Tuesday morning into the aftn. A cold front approaches from the NW Wednesday aftn with an increasing chc of showers/tstms later Wednesday aftn into Wednesday night. This front will push through the area Thursday with a continued chc of showers/tstms. Periodic flight restrictions are expected later Wednesday into Thursday. The front will push farther S on Friday as drier air attempts to push in from the NW, and then the boundary lifts back N Saturday. The chc for showers/tstms is less Friday (except over far SE VA/NE NC) and then increases again Saturday. && .MARINE... As of 315 AM EDT Tuesday... Key messages: - Small Craft Advisories are possible late Wednesday into Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front. High pressure well offshore is resulting in sub-SCA SW winds 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt along the eastern Ches Bay and coastal waters while the western half of the bay, tidal rivers, and Currituck Sound are ~10 kt with gusts to 15 kt. Waves are 1-2 ft with seas 2-3 ft. SW winds continue today, increasing to 10-15 kt by late afternoon. A period of SCA winds is possible late tonight into early Wednesday in the Ches Bay but given marginal speeds and relatively short duration will not issue any headlines with this forecast. SW flow persists on Wednesday ahead of a cold front. Latest guidance continues to show the potential for a period SCA conditions Wednesday evening into Thursday as pressure gradient tightens ahead of a cold front. The front now looks to move through the northern half of the area on Thursday morning, stalling across the southern waters before moving just south of the area by Friday morning. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorm are possible Wed/Thur ahead of the front, some of which could be strong to severe with locally enhanced winds/waves/seas. Waves in the bay maintain 1-2 ft today with 2-3 ft possible overnight and Wednesday with the stronger SW winds. Seas will generally stay 2-3 ft today but increase to 3-4 ft tonight. A period of 4-5 ft seas is possible Wednesday night into Thursday for the northern coastal waters. Flow becomes N and NE 5-10 kt behind the front on Friday. Low rip current risk at all beaches today. A moderate rip current risk is forecast for the northern beaches Wednesday and Thursday. && .CLIMATE... Record Highs and record high mins may be challenged Mon-Wed. - Record Highs: - Site: Mon 7/15 Tue 7/16 Wed 7/17 - RIC: 100 (1995) 101 (1980) 100 (1980) - ORF: 101 (1995) 102 (1879) 100 (1887) - SBY: 100 (1995) 99 (1915) 99 (2012) - ECG: 97 (1997) 98 (1995) 99 (1942) - Record High Mins: - Site: Mon 7/15 Tue 7/16 Wed 7/17 - RIC: 77 (1993) 77 (1983) 76 (2005) - ORF: 82 (1992) 80 (1995) 80 (2021) - SBY: 79 (1995) 78 (2013) 80 (1983) - ECG: 78 (1993) 79 (2012) 80 (2019) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ021>024. NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ012-102. Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ013>017-030>032. VA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>089-092-099-100-509>522. Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ090-093-095>098-523>525. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/LKB NEAR TERM...AJZ/ERI SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB LONG TERM...JKP AVIATION...AJZ/ERI MARINE...RHR CLIMATE...