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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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774 FXUS61 KAKQ 200753 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 353 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A weak front over NC will lift is lifting north early this morning, bringing unsettled conditions back to most of the area with locally heavy rainfall possible. Somewhat unsettled conditions are expected through much of next week with scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 350 AM EDT Saturday... Key messages: - Weak frontal boundary lifts northward this morning with low pressure translating along the front this afternoon. Areas near and north of the boundary will see periods of moderate to locally heavy rainfall. - A few strong storms are possible along and south of the front this afternoon and evening. Early morning analysis shows high pressure well off the SE CONUS with a weak front slowly making northward progress across NC and into VA. Aloft, a broad positively-tilted trough is noted over the Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes, resulting in SW flow over the region. Satellite imagery shows mostly cloudy skies across the region and a few showers have developed along the northward-advancing front near and just offshore from VA Beach. Expect the front to continue to lift north this morning with an increasing chances for showers and a few storms. Skies will be mostly cloudy today with widespread showers and storms possible this afternoon into the evening. Temperatures will be held down by cloud cover and showers with highs ranging from the upper 70s NW to the mid 80s SE. A shortwave trough in the flow aloft will result in weak low pressure forming along the frontal boundary which will serve to enhance lift and low level convergence along and north of the front this afternoon. CAM/HREF guidance shows the greatest precip coverage and probabilities of 3"/3 hours generally along the US 460 corridor today. WPC has included a small Slight Risk area from the VA/NC border northward into the I-64 corridor today. In coordination with neighboring offices, have opted not to issue a flood watch for today with the highest QPF placed just north of the areas that have received the most rainfall over the last 72 hours (Mecklenburg County eastward along the VA/NC border and into NE NC). If short term trends show less northward progress with the front this morning, a short-fused Flood Watch may be required for these areas. As low pressure translates east along the front late this afternoon and evening, PoPs will be focused across the SE third of the area and near the coast/offshore after midnight. Enhanced flow aloft will result in 25-30 kt of shear this afternoon and evening along and south of the frontal boundary. Strong straight line winds locally heavy rainfall are the main threats from convection this afternoon and evening. SPC has areas near and south of the VA/NC border in a Marginal Risk. Lows tonight range from the mid/upper 60s N and NW to the low 70s SE. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages... - Unsettled on Saturday with locally heavy rain possible especially south of I-64. - Warmer on Sunday with scattered showers/storms especially far southern VA and NE NC. Latest CAMS are show a fairly good signal of locally heavy rainfall in central or southern Virginia Saturday afternoon as the frontal boundary hangs up over somewhere over southern VA or northern NC. The area of heavy rainfall will be highly defendant on where this front stalls out, but the consensus is that there will be an area of heavy rain generally along US-460 tomorrow afternoon as a weak low develops along the front helping to increase moisture convergence along with precipitable water values forecast at 2.2". At this time, will hold off on any flood watch as the highest QPF is forecast to occur where lesser precip has fallen the past few days. However, will need to monitor this closely as a shift southward in the heavier precip would possibly require a flood watch. There is also a marginal risk for severe weather tomorrow afternoon mainly southside and SE VA and NE NC. With the upper short wave moving overhead, the mid level flow increases to 30-40 kt which helps deep shear to increase to about 35 kt. There will likely be some breaks in the clouds in the SE on Saturday as well with MLCAPE values forecast to be around 1000 j/kg (although the breaks in the clouds are uncertain). Although the mid level lapse rates will be quite weak, there is a potential for bowing segments leading to localized damaging wind gusts where there is some destabilization. Highs tomorrow will end up below normal for much of the area due to the excessive clouds. It will still be quite humid with dew points in the 70s, but expect highs to the in the upper 70s/lower 80s north and mid-upper 80s south. After the frontal passage Sat night, the front will stall out once again near or just south of the VA/NC border. Precipitable water values drop to below 2" for at least the northern part of the forecast area. Will therefore go with a dry forecast later Sat night into Sunday morning for much of the area north of the VA/NC border. Will need to keep chance PoPs south due to the proximity of the front. Sunday afternoon, expect scattered showers and storms to develop with the best concentration in NC. Highs on Sunday rise back into the mid-upper 80s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Somewhat unsettled through the week with mainly afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms. - Daytime temperatures near normal, but it will be rather humid through the week. With the Bermuda high anchored offshore and SW flow aloft for much of the week, we will not see much change in the weather next week. Showers and storms will be favored mainly in the afternoon and evening hours with convection developing inland then moving toward the coast by evening. Precipitable water values stay around 2" all week, with surface dew points in the low to mid 70s. This will allow for the potential for heavy rainfall at any time or place in the forecast area, but there is no way to pin down any specifics at this point. As such, will mostly go with likely PoPs each afternoon Mon- Wed with chance PoPs Thu and Friday. It is interesting that the NBM 24 hour QPF probabilities show a 10-20% probability of over an inch of rain throughout the week, but then only a 50-70% probability of 0.01". This implies that there is the potential for heavy rainfall at any given time, but also suggests that it could stay dry. Daytime temperatures are expected to stay near normal in the upper 80s to around 90 all well. However, with the deep moisture and high dew points, lows will struggle to drop below the lower 70s all week. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 755 PM EDT Friday... A cold front has pushed S into NC as of 00z. VFR with SCT-BKN mid and high clouds and any showers over s-central VA into interior NE NC are dissipating. The wind is mainly E to SE at 5-10kt. The boundary will slowly lift back N as a warm front late tonight into Saturday. As the boundary lifts back into the region early Saturday morning MVFR cigs are likely at RIC, ORF, PHF, and ECG, with IFR cigs possible at RIC. MVFR cigs are expected to linger at these sites into early aftn. Showers arrive from the SW early Saturday morning and gradually spread SW to NE through the day, with tstms possible in the aftn. Any showers/tstms will contain heavy rain that could produce brief IFR/LIFR vsby. The wind will mainly be light out of the E to SE tonight, then E to SE 5-10kt Saturday, shifting to SW in the aftn at ECG as the front lifts N. MVFR/IFR cigs are possible in vicinity of the boundary Saturday night. Unsettled conditions continue Sunday through Wednesday with daily chances of mainly aftn/evening showers/tstms. && .MARINE... As of 250 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - A warm front lifts north through the area today, bringing light and variable winds. - Prevailing sub-advisory conditions are expected to continue through at least early next week, although afternoon/evening thunderstorms are possible each day. A warm front is slowly moving north across nrn NC early this morning, with E-SE winds of 5-10 kt over the waters and 2-3 ft seas/1-2 ft waves. The front is progged to continue to lift north across part of the area today before stalling as weak sfc low pressure tracks along it. The weak low moves offshore tonight. Winds will generally be E-SE at ~10 kt today, with S-SE winds south of the front (over the far SE VA/NE NC coastal waters). Winds become variable this evening as the low tracks over the waters before turning to the W-NW tonight (and remaining well below SCA thresholds). Despite the prevailing sub-SCA conditions, scattered to numerous tstms could produce locally higher gusts (especially from midday through this evening). Light and variable winds are expected Sunday with continuing shower/storm chances. S/SW winds become more established Monday and especially the middle of next week as the pressure gradient tightens between Bermuda high pressure offshore and weak low pressure well to our NW. It still looks to remain predominantly sub-SCA through the period, outside of brief higher wind gusts from convection. Waves in the bay average 1-2 ft while seas average 2-3 ft. Seas increase to 3-4 ft across the northern waters mid-late this week as SSW winds become a bit more elevated (but still below SCA thresholds). Will continue with a moderate rip current risk across the northern beaches this weekend, with a low rip risk for VA Beach/Eastern Currituck. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RHR/MRD NEAR TERM...RHR SHORT TERM...MRD LONG TERM...MRD AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...ERI/SW