Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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605 FXUS61 KAKQ 070754 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 354 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled weather continues through the week with daily chances for scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms. Very warm and humid conditions continue through the week as well. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 350 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Scattered afternoon storms are likely across NE NC and are possible across SE VA and the Eastern Shore. - Locally heavy rainfall is possible in NE NC. Temps as of 340 AM ranged from the lower 70s NW to the upper 70s to around 80F SE under mostly cloudy skies. A few light showers were noted across S central VA and NE NC with a few thunderstorms moving into the Ches Bay from Hampton. Morning lows a degree or two cooler. Aloft, an upper level low lingers off the Southeast coast beneath an upper level ridge today with an upper level trough across the N central CONUS. At the sfc, a cold front gradually moves SE through much of the area this morning before stalling and washing out through the afternoon. Widespread cloud cover lingers through the day as moisture gets pulled NE between the trough to the NW and ridge to the SE. Given the cloud cover, temps will be "cooler" today with highs in the low-mid 90s. Afternoon dew points are expected to range from the mid 60s NW (behind the cold front) to the mid-upper 70s SE. As such, heat indices will range from the mid 90s W to 100- 103F E. Expect scattered storms to develop ahead of the cold front across SE VA/NE NC (60-70% PoPs) as well as the Eastern Shore (40- 50% PoPs) off the sea breeze. With PWATs of 2-2.2" remaining across SE VA/NE NC, locally heavy rainfall will be possible with storms. The best chance for heavy rain (and localized flash flooding) is across NE NC where HREF probs are 70-90% for 1" in 1 hour and 50% for 3" in 3 hours. 1 and 3 hour FFG is 2.5-3" and 3-4" respectively across these areas. WPC has a marginal risk for excessive rainfall across NE NC to account for this potential. A few storms may be strong (potentially severe) as well with localized damaging winds due to wet microbursts possible. Showers and storms taper off this evening with lows in the lower 70s W to mid 70s E tonight. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 845 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Scattered showers and storms are possible Sunday through Tuesday, mainly during the afternoon and evening. - Remaining humid with heat indices of 95-105F each day. A few showers are possible during the morning (mainly S/SE). Sunday will feature more clouds as the front very slowly tries to make its way southward before stalling across far S/SE VA Sunday afternoon. The front will serve as a focal point for scattered aftn/evening tstms. The highest PoPs (40-60%) are in SE VA/NE NC, and the latest CAMs are also hinting at scattered showers/tstms w/ the seabreeze over the eastern shore (PoPs to 20-40%). No more than isolated convection is expected elsewhere. Convection should quickly diminish after 9-10 PM...isolated 40-50 mph gusts are possible in the strongest storms but the main threat with any storms will be heavy rainfall. Still hot and humid on Sun (especially across E/SE VA and NE NC where heat indices may approach 105F due to dew pts in the mid- upper 70s although temps won`t get much above 90F due to increased cloud cover). It will actually be hotter (lower-mid 90s) across central/NW portions of the FA where there will be a bit more sunshine, but dew pts look to mix out more in the upper 60s to around 70F with drier air filtering in from the NW, so heat indices will only top out in the upper 90s to around 100F. The front washes out by Monday as the low-level flow becomes SSE area-wide. Highs mainly in the upper 80s-lower 90s (heat indices generally 100-105F) with isolated to scattered aftn/evening tstms (best chance in the Piedmont with lower chances closer to the coast). Upper ridging off the SE CONUS coast builds a bit on Tue as a trough picks up the remnants of Beryl over the Arklatex region. This will result in slight height rises over the FA with low-level southerly flow. A few aftn/evening tstms are possible, with the highest coverage along/west of I-95 with lesser coverage near the coast (which will be closer in proximity to the offshore ridge). Highs Tue in the lower-mid 90s inland with upper 80s-lower 90s near the coast. Heat indices will top out in the 100-105F range. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 255 PM EDT Saturday... Key Message: - Near normal temperatures and very humid conditions continue through next week. - Remaining unsettled with daily chances for mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms. Daily chances for showers/tstms (highest during the aftn/evening) will continue through the remainder of the week as we will be under weak S-SW flow aloft in between broader troughing to our NW and ridging offshore. Several shortwaves will cross the area during the latter part of next week into next weekend. With deep moisture likely remaining in place along with weak flow aloft, showers/tstms will be the result. PWs may remain aoa 2.0" through much of mid-late next week...especially near the coast. While there likely won`t be as much of a severe threat, locally heavy rainfall is likely in spots. Wednesday will be the hottest day of the period with highs in the lower-mid 90s (and heat indices of 100-105F), with highs mainly in the 85-90F range from Thu-Sat with more cloud cover/higher precip chances. Lows mainly between 70-75F through the period. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 155 AM EDT Sunday... Partly to mostly cloudy skies continue overnight and into Sun with a mixture of cirrus and CU. A few isolated light showers will continue to be possible across mainly SE VA/NE NC overnight. CU develop in the afternoon with scattered showers and storms developing across SE VA/NE NC as well as the Eastern Shore. Confidence in coverage and exact timing is too low to go with more than VCTS for now. IFR VIS will be possible in any showers/storms. Showers and storms taper off in the evening with some MVFR CIGs possible late. Additionally, some marine fog may move onshore the Eastern Shore tonight with IFR/MVFR VIS. Unsettled weather continues through the week with daily chances for showers/storms (mainly during the afternoon/evening timeframe). && .MARINE... As of 300 AM EDT Sunday... Key messages: - Generally benign, typical summertime conditions are expected through midweek. - There is a moderate rip risk for the northern beaches today. Early this morning, a weak cold front is located just west of the waters with winds out of the S to SW ranging from 10 to 15 knots. Seas are running around 2 to 4 feet and waves in the Chesapeake Bay are running around 1 to 2 feet. The cold front will stall/dissipate over or near the local waters on today. Predominately sub-SCA winds are expected today through Wednesday, generally running around 5 to 15 knots out of the S or SE. Sub-SCA conditions look to continue through much of the mid to late week period. There is a moderate rip current risk for the northern beaches tomorrow, with a low risk south. && .CLIMATE... Record High Minimum Temperatures were tied at ORF/SBY and set at ECG yesterday, 7/6. See below for actual min temps. - RIC: 76 (Record 80/2012) - ORF: 80 (Record 80/1999) - SBY: 77 (Record 77/2012) - ECG: 79 (Record 78/1999) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RMM NEAR TERM...RMM SHORT TERM...ERI/LKB LONG TERM...ERI/RMM AVIATION...RMM MARINE...AJB CLIMATE...