279
FXUS61 KAKQ 071924
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
324 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather continues through the week with daily chances for
scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms. More
widespread showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday
through Friday. Very warm and humid conditions continue through
much of the week as well. The highest heat indices are
expected on Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 320 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered thunderstorms will continue to pose a threat for
  locally heavy rain across NE NC through the evening hours.

- Storms weaken overnight with mainly dry conditions expected
  after 9-11 PM.

A cold front has stalled just south of the VA-NC border this
afternoon. A broad upper trough is over the upper Midwest, with two
areas of upper ridging: one near Bermuda and one over the ern Gulf
of Mexico and SE CONUS. A cutoff low resides in between the two
areas of ridging. Scattered tstms have developed across NC and have
been quite efficient at producing heavy rain given PWs around 2.0".
In fact, one storm near ECG has produced a quick 2-3" in the past
hour. Also, a few showers continue just to the north of the front
with widespread cloud cover due to moisture getting pulled NE
between the trough to the NW and ridge to the SE. Temps are mainly
in the upper 80s-lower 90s with heat indices in the 90s to ~100F.

The front is progged to move back north as a warm front late this
evening-tonight before eventually washing out. Expect scattered
tstms to persist through at least part of the evening over NE NC,
with perhaps a storm or two making it into far srn VA. The highest
coverage of tstms is expected to be from now-9 PM before diurnal
weakening occurs overnight. As has been the case already, locally
heavy rainfall will be likely with storms. WPC has a marginal risk
for excessive rainfall across NE NC to account for this potential.
Can`t completely rule out highly localized damaging winds due to wet
microbursts as well. Lows in the lower 70s W to mid 70s E
tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 320 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers and storms are possible Monday through
  Wednesday, mainly during the afternoon and evening.

- Remaining humid with heat indices of 100-105F Monday.

- Dangerous heat indices in excess of 105F are possible on
  Tuesday and Wednesday, especially inland.

Upper ridging off the SE CONUS coast builds a by Tue as a trough
picks up the remnants of Beryl over the Arklatex region late Mon
into Tue. This will result in slight height rises over the FA with
low- level southerly flow as today`s front washes out to our north.
The height rises will be a bit more pronounced on Tuesday. As such,
high temps will be back to the lower-mid 90s on Mon (and perhaps a
degree or two warmer on Tuesday). CAMs continue to show the
potential for isolated-scattered convection Monday aftn-early
evening (mainly W of the Ches Bay), and will keep PoPs in the 30-50%
range for these areas. Not expecting more than isolated storms on
Mon near the immediate coast. With fairly strong sfc heating and the
lack of deep-layer shear, these will be the typical summertime pulse
storms that could produce localized heavy rain/gusty winds. Tuesday
will feature less in the way of aftn/evening tstms with the rising
heights (PoPs are no higher than 30%...highest along and west of I-
95).

With temps in the low-mid 90s both days (hottest inland), heat
indices will be on the rise yet again. Max heat index values will
generally be 100-105F on Monday with readings aoa 105F looking
likely across interior portions of the FA on Tue. Therefore, Heat
Advisories will likely be needed on Tue for a good part of the FA.
The remnants of Beryl track toward the Great Lakes on Wed with weak
SW flow aloft over VA/NC in between Beryl and upper ridging
offshore. Heights fall very slightly with temps similar to Tue along
with isolated to widely scattered aftn/evening tstms (highest
chances are in the Piedmont). Can`t rule out heat headlines on Wed
(especially inland) where max heat indices are forecast to be ~105F.
Lows in the low-mid 70s both nights.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 320 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Near normal temperatures and very humid conditions continue
  through next week.

- Remaining unsettled with daily chances for showers and storms.

- The highest precipitation chances will be from late Thursday
through Friday evening. While the threat for severe weather looks to
be limited, locally heavy rainfall is possible late this week.

Unsettled wx is expected late this week into the weekend weak S-SW
flow aloft continues across the area in between broader troughing to
the NW and ridging offshore. The remnants of Beryl lift NE into srn
Quebec by Friday with direct rainfall from the system remaining to
the NW of the local area. PWs likely remain at or above 2.0" through
the week, allowing for very humid conditions. Meanwhile, a shortwave
may track along the southwestern periphery of the offshore ridge
before turning to the N and tracking across the local area late
Thursday through Friday evening. As a result, scattered to numerous
showers/tstms are expected Thu aftn and evening, with showers and a
few tstms likely continuing Thu night and through much of Fri/Fri
evening before potentially tapering off by late Friday night as the
shortwave exits the area. More typical diurnally driven tstms are
expected next weekend. While there likely won`t be as much of a
severe threat, locally heavy rainfall is possible through the week,
especially Thursday through Friday evening. Have likely PoPs for
Thu/Fri with slight chance to chance PoPs next weekend.

Highs Thu in the upper 80s-lower 90s, dropping to the 85-90F range
for Fri-Sat. Lows mainly between 70-75F through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Sunday...

VFR at this hour with SCT-BKN clouds and a few showers near
ORF/PHF/ECG as a cold front has stalled across N/NE North
Carolina. Showers/tstms are progged to increase in coverage
across NC with showers and perhaps a tstm INVOF PHF/ORF/SBY
through 21-00z. Have removed the mention of thunder from
PHF/ORF/SBY due to decreasing confidence with the front to the
south but have left VCTS (w/ TEMPO TSRA) at ECG through early
evening. IFR/LIFR VSBYs will be possible in any showers/storms.
Showers and storms taper off in the evening with some MVFR CIGs
possible late. Additionally, patchy fog is possible on the MD
Eastern Shore early Mon AM (but this most likely stays east of
SBY). Any lower CIGs will quickly scatter out Monday AM giving
way to SCT cumulus during the latter part of the day and
isolated to widely scattered tstms during the aftn/evening.

Unsettled weather continues through the week with daily chances
for showers/tstms (mainly during the afternoon/evening
timeframe).

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 AM EDT Sunday...

Key messages:

- Generally benign, typical summertime conditions are expected
through midweek.

- There is a moderate rip risk for the northern beaches today.

Early this morning, a weak cold front is located just west of the
waters with winds out of the S to SW ranging from 10 to 15 knots.
Seas are running around 2 to 4 feet and waves in the Chesapeake Bay
are running around 1 to 2 feet.

The cold front will stall/dissipate over or near the local waters on
today. Predominately sub-SCA winds are expected today through
Wednesday, generally running around 5 to 15 knots out of the S or
SE. Sub-SCA conditions look to continue through much of the mid to
late week period.

There is a moderate rip current risk for the northern beaches
tomorrow, with a low risk south.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A few record high minimum temp records were set yesterday with
80F at ORF (tied the daily record), 77F at SBY (tied the daily
record), and 79F at ECG (broke the record of 78F from 1999).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERI
NEAR TERM...ERI
SHORT TERM...ERI/RMM
LONG TERM...ERI/RMM
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...AJB
CLIMATE...AKQ