854
FXUS61 KAKQ 061941
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
341 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected across southeast portions
of the area this evening. Very warm and humid conditions
continue through the middle of next week with daily chances of
mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 255 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Very hot and humid conditions continue through this evening
  with heat indices of 100-112F (highest in SE VA/NE NC).
  Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories remain in effect
  for the entire area.

- Scattered storms are possible this evening into tonight
  across mainly southeast portions of the area with heavy rain
  possible.

High pressure is well offshore late this morning while a weak
cold front is still to the NW of the FA. Aloft, a ridge is in
place from the Gulf coast to the S Mid- Atlantic with a trough
over the upper Midwest/Great Lakes. A pre-frontal sfc trough
extends from the NJ coast SSW to NC, and scattered tstms have
developed along this feature (although not in our area yet). A
moist airmass remains in place with the latest mesoanalysis
showing PWATs of 2.0-2.2" across the SE half of the area, with
1.5-2.0" values along and west of I-95. It is very hot and
humid as expected, with temps in the 90s and heat indices of
100-105F inland, with readings around 110F near the SE VA/NE NC
coast. Will leave the Excessive Heat Warning/Heat Advisory as is
(although we will likely fall short of warning criteria along
the I-95 corridor). Heat headlines run through 8 PM.


The cold front that`s still to our NW will likely make it to
central VA tonight. Tstms are progged to develop across far SE
VA/NE NC in the next few hours, and the highest coverage of
tstms will likely be between 5-10 PM. Still think that the convection
should largely be confined to SE VA/NE NC where PoPs increase
to 60% by 21z/5 PM. PoPs linger across SE portions of the FA
through tonight but gradually diminish with time. Given very
high PWATs and weak shear, heavy rain will be possible with any
storms, especially if storms train with >1" of rain possible in
a very short time. WPC has SE portions of the FA under a slight
risk for excessive rainfall with marginal for the remainder of
the FA. Additionally, a few strong to potentially severe storms
are also possible (mainly across SE VA/NE NC) due to wet
microbursts. Lows tonight fall into the lower 70s W with mid-
upper 70s E.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 255 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers and storms are possible Sunday through Tuesday,
  mainly during the afternoon and evening.

- Remaining humid with heat indices of 98-105F each day.

A few showers are possible during the morning (mainly S/SE). Sunday
will feature more clouds as the front very slowly tries to make
its way southward before stalling across far S/SE VA Sunday
afternoon. The front will serve as a focal point for scattered
aftn/evening tstms. The highest PoPs (40-60%) are in SE VA/NE
NC, with no more than isolated convection expected elsewhere.
Convection should quickly diminish after 9-10 PM...isolated
40-50 mph gusts are possible in the strongest storms but the
main threat with any storms will be heavy rainfall. Still hot
and humid on Sun (especially across E/SE VA and NE NC where heat
indices will be close to 105F due to dew pts in the mid-upper
70s although temps won`t get much above 90F due to increased
cloud cover). It will actually be hotter (lower-mid 90s) across
central/NW portions of the FA where there will be a bit more
sunshine, but dew pts will be in the upper 60s-lower 70s so heat
indices will "only" top out around 100F.

The front washes out by Monday as the low-level flow becomes SSE
area-wide. Highs mainly in the upper 80s-lower 90s (heat indices
generally 100-105F) with isolated to scattered aftn/evening tstms
(best chance in the Piedmont with lower chances closer to the
coast). Upper ridging off the SE CONUS coast builds a bit on Tue as
a trough picks up the remnants of Beryl over the Arklatex region.
This will result in slight height rises over the FA with low-level
southerly flow. A few aftn/evening tstms are possible, with the
highest coverage along/west of I-95 with lesser coverage near the
coast (which will be closer in proximity to the offshore ridge).
Highs Tue in the lower-mid 90s inland with upper 80s-lower 90s near
the coast. Heat indices will top out in the 100-105F range.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 255 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

- Near normal temperatures and very humid conditions continue
  through next week.

- Remaining unsettled with daily chances for mainly afternoon and
  evening showers and storms.

Daily chances for showers/tstms (highest during the aftn/evening)
will continue through the remainder of the week as we will be under
weak S-SW flow aloft in between broader troughing to our NW and
ridging offshore. Several shortwaves will cross the area during
the latter part of next week into next weekend. With deep
moisture likely remaining in place along with weak flow aloft,
showers/tstms will be the result. PWs may remain aoa 2.0"
through much of mid-late next week...especially near the coast.
While there likely won`t be as much of a severe threat, locally
heavy rainfall is likely in spots. Wednesday will be the
hottest day of the period with highs in the lower-mid 90s (and
heat indices of 100-105F), with highs mainly in the 85-90F range
from Thu-Sat with more cloud cover/higher precip chances. Lows
mainly between 70-75F through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Saturday...

Mainly VFR for the next 24 hours. While it is dry at this hour,
scattered tstms will develop later this aftn/this evening INVOF
PHF/ORF/ECG, and are most likely between 20-00z. RIC/SBY will
very likely remain dry. Brief IFR/LIFR VSBYs and gusty winds of
30-40 kt are possible in the stronger storms. Mainly dry
overnight with isolated-scattered showers (and perhaps a few
tstms) across E/SE VA and NE NC. In addition, a period of MVFR
CIGs is possible late tonight-Sun AM at SBY/PHF/ORF/ECG. It
should quickly become VFR by the middle of Sunday morning.
Scattered showers/tstms are possible INVOF PHF/ORF/ECG Sunday
aftn/evening (along a stalled frontal boundary), with PoPs no
higher than 20% at RIC/SBY. Unsettled weather continues through
the week with daily chances for showers/storms.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 340 PM EDT Saturday...

Late this aftn, a weak cold front was over central portions of
the local area. SSE winds 5-15 kt with a few gusts up to 20 kt
in advance of the front were across the waters. Seas were 2-4 ft
and waves were 1-2 ft.

SCAs have been cancelled for the nrn coastal waters. There could
be isolated to sctd showers and tstms over the srn waters this
evening, where a few storms may require Special Marine Warnings
due to strong wind gusts. The cold front will slowly approach
tonight, before stalling/dissipating over or near the local
waters on Sun. Predominately sub-SCA winds are then expected
Sun into Wed, generally running around 5-15 kt out of the S or
SE. There is a moderate rip current risk at all area beaches
into this evening. Then, there is a moderate rip current risk
for the northern beaches on Sun, with a low risk south.

&&

.CLIMATE...
No record highs set yesterday (7/5). See below for actual high
temps:

- RIC  99 (Record 102/2012)
- ORF  97 (Record 98/2012)
- SBY  94 (Record 102/2012)
- ECG  94 (Record 100/2012)


Record High Temperatures for today (July 6):

- RIC  105/1977
- ORF  102/1881
- SBY  102/2010
- ECG  99/2012


Record High Minimum Temperatures for today (July 6)

           7/6
- RIC    80/2012
- ORF    80/1999
- SBY    77/2012
- ECG    78/1999

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     MDZ021>024.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ025.
NC...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     NCZ012>017-030>032.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ102.
VA...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     VAZ075>090-092-093-095>100-512>525.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ048-060>062-
     064>069-509>511.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERI
NEAR TERM...ERI
SHORT TERM...ERI/RMM
LONG TERM...ERI/RMM
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...AJB/TMG
CLIMATE...AKQ