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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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067 FXUS61 KAKQ 050901 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 501 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure lingers offshore with building heat and humidity today and Saturday. Daily chances of mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms continue into next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 430 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Excessive Heat Warnings are in effect today for much of the area with Heat Advisories elsewhere. - Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening storms are possible. - Temperatures remain very warm overnight. An upper ridge extends from the Gulf Coast to the Carolinas early this morning with a trough across the Upper Midwest. At the surface, high pressure was centered off the Southeast Coast. Partly cloudy skies with patchy fog linger early this morning with fog dissipating shortly after sunrise. Temps as of 4 AM ranged from the mid-upper 70s with morning lows about the same. The 00z WAL sounding showed a PW value of 2.16" which is above the 90th percentile and just shy of the daily record. This moisture is just the start to with S/SSW winds continuing to advect moisture into the area today. Dew points are expected to rise into the mid-upper 70s across the area today while temps soar into the upper 90s inland and mid 90s closer to the coast. Some model guidance even has temps reaching 100F around Richmond. While dew points may mix out some this afternoon, the S flow of rich moisture should act to mitigate mixing. Additionally, convection now appears to move into the area later in the afternoon (as opposed to early afternoon). Therefore, heat indices are now expected to rise to ~110F across much of the area with 105-108F across the far NW, far S (Bertie and Hertford), along the immediate coast in E Currituck, and the Eastern Shore. Additionally, DESI has probs of heat indices >109F of 30-40% across much of the area with localized pockets of 50-70%. As such, Heat Advisories have been upgraded to Excessive Heat Warnings across much of the area (per coordination with neighboring offices) with Heat Advisories along the edges of the FA and the Eastern Shore. Will note that while all of Currituck County is under an Excessive Heat Warning, the greater threat is the inland portion of the county with Currituck beaches likely to remain cooler (95-100F heat indices). Aside from the excessive heat, PoPs increase to 25-40% (highest SW) later this afternoon into this evening with isolated to scattered showers and storms possible. That being said, these look to be very hit or miss with widespread coverage not expected. Showers and storms taper off overnight with cloud cover lingering. Given the cloud cover and very high dew points, temps may struggle to drop below 80F from Richmond towards the Chesapeake Bay and Eastern Shore overnight. This will increase heat strain. Depending on how the temps/dew points trend for Sat, Heat Advisories or an extension of the Excessive Heat Warnings may be needed through tonight and into Sat to cover the overnight heat risk. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 455 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Very hot conditions continue into Saturday with heat indices of up to around 110F possible along and east of I-95 with 105-108F farther west and across the Eastern Shore. - Scattered storms are possible Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. The upper ridge breaks down some by Saturday allowing the upper trough and a weakening cold front to approach from the NW. Meanwhile, an upper level low lingers off the Southeast coast. PW values remain very high Sat (2-2.2" with locally higher values). Additionally some stronger mid- level flow approaches from the NW (25-35kt). This could result in some better storm organization, which may allow for some stronger storms. That being said, the more likely threat from showers/storms will be heavy rain given the very moist environment. The most favorable region for some locally heavy rain appears to be across southern/SE VA and NE NC at this time. However, widespread rainfall totals of 0.5-1.0" appear possible from Mecklenburg NE to the Northern Neck. Localized higher totals are possible. Storm coverage farther W appears more conditional with mainly the NAM being the outlier with higher coverage in this area. A cold front approaches the area but stalls, allowing for PoPs to continue overnight Sat night and into Sun with the highest PoPs across SE VA/NE NC. Showers/storms gradually move offshore Sun night. Given morning lows in the upper 70s to around 80F across E portions of the FA Sat morning, it won`t take much heating for temps to rise into the 90s with afternoon highs in the mid 90s W to the mid-upper 90s E. Dew points remain very high Sat in the mid 70s W to the upper 70s E. Given the combination of heat and humidity, the heat indices may rise to around 110F along and east of I-95 with 105-108F farther west and across the Eastern Shore. Extensions of the Excessive Heat Warning or additional Heat Advisories through Sat are possible depending on forecast trends. Will note that the challenging aspect of Sat is that storms are expected to be more widespread in coverage. If they happen early enough, the rain cooled air and cloud cover may keep temps cooler than currently forecast. If this happens, heat indices may be lower than and/or a shorter duration than currently forecast. Even so, Heat Advisories (at a minimum) are likely. DESI probs are not as high for Sat as they are for Fri with 20-40% chances for heat indices >109F across SE VA/NE NC. With the convection allowing for rain cooled air, lows Sat night will be cooler than tonight in the lower 70s W to mid 70s along the E of I-95. Highs Sun in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows Sun night in the low-mid 70s expected. Heat indices will be cooler on Sun (95-100F). && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 500 AM EDT Friday... Key Message: - Slightly above normal temperatures and very humid conditions continue through next week. - Remaining a bit unsettled with a chance for mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms each day. Not as hot through the period, but high temps will still be slightly above normal ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s (most in the lower 90s). Humidity sticks around with dew points in the 70s continuing through the week. Additionally, with lee troughs and/or weak frontal boundaries in the vicinity of the region, expect chances for mainly afternoon/evening showers/storms each day. Heat indices will mainly range from the mid 90s to lower 100s through the week. Warm and muggy nights continue as well with lows ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 155 AM EDT Friday... SCT cloud cover continues overnight with mainly VFR CIGs. Will note that some model guidance shows MVFR/IFR CIGs reaching RIC later tonight, but confidence is too low to reflect in the TAFs. Additionally, patchy fog lingers across inland portions of the area but should stay away from the local terminals. Clouds clear in the morning before CU (VFR CIGs around 7000-10000 ft) builds in from SW to NE this afternoon into this evening. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible this afternoon into this evening. However, confidence in coverage is too low to reflect in the TAFs apart from RIC/SBY/PHF. Mostly cloudy skies move in Fri night, thinning late. A weakening and slow moving cold front settles into the region Saturday. This will bring a higher chc (40-60%) of aftn/evening showers/tstms. This front settles near the coast Sunday and washes out, with a remnant boundary lingering over the area Monday/Tuesday. The highest chances (30-40%) shift into SE VA/NE NC Sunday, and then generally 30-40% inland and 15-30% toward the coast Monday and Tuesday. && .MARINE... As of 330 AM EDT Friday... Key messages: - Southerly winds increase later this afternoon into tonight, with Small Craft Advisories now in effect for the coastal waters, lower Chesapeake Bay, and Currituck Sound. - There is a moderate rip risk across area beaches today and Saturday. Early this morning, winds are generally out of the S to SSW and range around 10 to 15 knots. Seas are 3-4 ft with waves 1-2 ft in the Bay. SSW winds shift to the SSE and increase later this afternoon into this evening as a cold front begins to slowly approach from the NW, tightening the gradient over the waters. Winds will first increase across the southern waters this afternoon, with the higher gusts spreading north later through this evening. Latest local wind probs show the best potential for 25 knot gusts (70-80% chance) out 20 nm with lower probabilities closer to the coast. In addition to the wind, seas will also increase to around 5 feet later this afternoon into tonight. SCAs are now in effect for the lower Chesapeake Bay and Currituck Sound this afternoon through this evening and the coastal waters this afternoon into tonight. Similar conditions are expected on Saturday, with winds again ramping up later Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Additional SCAs may be needed for this timeframe. Lighter winds are then expected Sunday into early next week as the cold front dissipates over the local waters. A moderate rip current risk in place for all beaches today with the moderate threat expected to continue through Saturday. && .CLIMATE... No record highs or record high mins were set today/July 4th. Record High Temperatures Fri and Sat (July 5-6) 7/5 7/6 - RIC 102/2012 105/1977 - ORF 98/2012 102/1881 - SBY 102/2012 102/2010 - ECG 100/2012 99/2012 Record High Minimum Temperatures Through Sat (July 4-6) 7/5 7/6 - RIC 79/2012 80/2012 - ORF 80/1999 80/1999 - SBY 81/2012 77/2012 - ECG 77/2018 78/1999 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ021>024. NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ013-030. Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ012-014>017-031-032-102. VA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ048-060-061-099-100-509-510. Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ062-064>069-075>090-092-093-095>098- 511>525. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ632>634. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RMM NEAR TERM...RMM SHORT TERM...RMM LONG TERM...RMM AVIATION...RMM MARINE...AJB CLIMATE...