081
FXAK67 PAJK 111757
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
957 AM AKDT Thu Jul 11 2024

.UPDATE...Updated to the aviation section to include the 18z TAF
issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Low pressure over the SW gulf will persist through
the forecast period with the next boundary moving through the
central gulf early this morning. A brief lull/lighter precip is
expected Thu morning before winds and rainfall increase in
response to this boundary. Another wet day for SE AK with highest
precip amounts focused over the NE gulf coast and N panhandle.
NE gulf coast will start to experience the heavier rain by late
morning with the area expanding eastward into the Icy Strait
corridor by late afternoon/early evening. Forecast rainfall
amounts around 0.5-1.0 inch over these areas with lower amounts
over the S panhandle. Flashier basins expected to respond to
moderate rain similar to Wed with none expected to reach bankful.

.LONG TERM.../Friday through Wednesday/...
Overview: Dissipating low over the NE Gulf keeps band of showers over
the northern portions of the AK Panhandle Friday with some breaks
developing Saturday. A stronger system and associated front move in
Sunday into Monday with more moderate to heavy rainfall. AS the low
weakens by mid week rain rates and coverage diminish.

A low moving into the NE Gulf will weaken to an open wave trough
Friday into Saturday. On shore flow will keep post frontal shower
activity going for most of then panhandle with the far south getting
more breaks in showers than the north. Another stronger system moves
in Sunday into Monday dropping down over the Aleutians. This front
keeps upper level support so stays intact as it moves over the
panhandle. While winds will pick up main impact from this front will
be the moderate to heavy rainfall. GFS IVT has the wide swath of
moisture crossing the gulf under the main low and being directed
directly at SE AK. As of now rainfall totals will be highest over
the NE Gulf Coast with higher probability of 1 to 2 inches of rain
over 24 hours with 0.5 to 1.5 inches elsewhere. Have below 30%
chance of totals higher than 2 inches. Expect river rises and some
ponding of water in culverts and roadways but still nothing
significant. Post frontal showers will continue Monday into Tuesday
with possible breaks by Wednesday. Ensembles still show the active
pattern continues into late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...This morning, mostly high-end MVFR to VFR conditions
are found around the area ahead of the next approaching front.

As the next front and round of weather tracks through later
today, conditions will deteriorate as rainfall increases again
late this afternoon/evening. Aviation conditions will drop, mainly
due to CIG, to IFR to low-end MVFR. There is evidence of LIFR
conditions possible overnight with CIGs getting close to 500 feet.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ643-644-651-652-664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM....PRB
AVIATION...GJS

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