965
FXAK67 PAJK 131334
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
534 AM AKDT Sat Jul 13 2024

.SHORT TERM...As of early Saturday morning, the area is in a
"break" between fronts with a ridge over the inner channels.
However, for most it will not feel like a break as light rain is
falling from Juneau to Sitka northward and the next front is on
Yakutat`s doorstep. The southern panhandle will have the best
chance for a continued break in rain (and even some breaks in the
clouds), so POP was lowered for that area. The northern inner
channels will see periods of rain through the morning, followed by
the onset of steady rain with increasing rates as the front moves
in from the west.

Heaviest rain over the next 24hrs will fall over Yakutat as the
upper level jet and moisture plume becomes directed at the
northern Gulf coast. Winds will steadily ramp up as the front
moves in with gusts of 30-35 mph expected in the Yakutat area.
Late tonight, winds and moderate to heavy rain will spread over
the rest of the northern panhandle.

Interesting forecast challenge with the temperatures and this
front. While the clouds will limit diurnal warming from the sun,
the southerly winds will bring in warmer air and will raise snow
levels above 10,000 feet tonight. For this reason, expect
temperatures to remain fairly steady overnight or continue rising.

See the marine section below for details on marine winds.

.LONG TERM...For the long term forecast beginning Sunday, the big
story remains an impactful storm that will bring unseasonably high
precipitation to the northern panhandle. Many areas in the
northern panhandle have a high chance of breaking daily records in
terms of total rainfall based upon ensemble model guidance for the
time period from Sunday into Monday. A flood watch has been issued
encompassing this timeframe when the heaviest rains are expected
to fall. While the parent low is expected to move inland in the
northwest gulf Sunday, the front is expected to persist over the
panhandle bringing enhanced winds through early next week. A
barrier jet is expected to develop as the front approaches the
northern gulf coast with gale force winds most likely in the
coastal waters westward of Yakutat Bay. As mentioned in the short
term, winds will increase with the approaching front and will
remain elevated through most of Sunday and into Monday. For more
information on marine impacts, see the marine section below as
well as the marine weather statement that was issued.

Overall this pattern is set to remain active through early next week
with multiple systems of varying strength moving towards the
panhandle. With the active pattern and continued chance of rain,
high temperatures are expected to be seasonably cool, but with
above normal lows. Stay tuned for further updates as this weekend
heavy precipitation event approaches.

&&

.AVIATION...Mixed bag of LIFR to VFR flight conditions this
morning across the panhandle under mostly BKN to OVC skies and
isolated showers. Flight conditions will continue to deteriorate
through today for the northern panhandle as a strong front pushes
inland, bringing increased winds up to 25kts and widespread precip
for TAF sites along and north of a line from Sitka to Petersburg.
By 18z, expect predominate MVFR to IFR CIGS dropping further to
IFR to LIFR CIGS after 00z as the bulk of the system pushes into
the Gulf coast.

&&

.MARINE...A Gale force front will move into the outer coast
near Cape Suckling through the morning with the development of a
barrier jet peaking at 35-45kt. These winds will gradually extend
down the coast to the Fairweather grounds through the afternoon.
With these increasing winds, seas are also expected to come up
10-16 feet. For the Inner Channels, strongest winds will be north
of Frederick Sound, increasing to around 20kt through the day and
to 25kt Saturday night with higher gusts likely. These winds will
continue into Sunday morning, then trend down slightly. However,
new surges of energy from the south may cause winds to increase
again Sunday/Monday and will be studied further for the next
forecast issuance.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A Flood Watch remains in effect Sunday morning
through Monday evening for portions of the northern panhandle
along the Icy Strait corridor and northern inner channels,
including Juneau. Heaviest rainfall expected on Sunday with totals
approaching 3 to 5 inches through Monday. This rainfall, in
combination with elevated snow levels exacerbating snow melt, will
result in excess runoff leading to elevated rivers, creeks, and
other low-lying areas.

While the Yakutat area will see the heaviest rainfall totals,
there is no flooding concern for the Northeast gulf coast. The
southern panhandle has no flooding concerns at this time either.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Flood Watch from Sunday morning through Monday evening for
     AKZ318>321-325.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ644-651-652-664-671-672.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-031>033-053-641>643-
     661>663.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ferrin
LONG TERM....STJ
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...Ferrin
HYDROLOGY...NM

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