Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
331 FXAK67 PAJK 132333 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 333 PM AKDT Sat Jul 13 2024 .SHORT TERM...Another day of rain continues for most locations with the exception of a few places in the southern panhandle. This rain is the precursor for the very heavy rain for most locations with the exception of Yakutat which has been seeing a good dosing of rain already. The rain is expected to continue for the short term period with the heaviest rain still expected to fall during the Sunday to Monday time period and the northern panhandle being the main focus. The southern panhandle will see some rain but accumulations are expected to be a lot less than what is expected farther north. Confidence in the heavy rain continues to remain fairly high with ensemble and deterministic guidance still showing a similar story to yesterday. .LONG TERM.../Monday onward/...Continuing from the short range, heavy rain will last into Monday from a front draped across the panhandle. For more information on flooding concerns, see the hydrologic section below and the issued flood watch. A short wave impulse is likely to ride up the backside of the front and at least bring continued moderate rain to the northern panhandle. Overall the pattern will remain active into midweek with a possible transition to showers. Ensemble model guidance is consistent in terms of keeping an active pattern for mid week and beyond, however there is increasing spread in terms of the timing and strength of these systems. All in all wet and at times potentially windy conditions can be expected for the panhandle throughout the week in general, with temperatures to remain seasonably cool. && .AVIATION...Our mixed bag of flight conditions ranging from IFR (North) to MVFR (central) to VFR (south) continues this afternoon with that general trend expected to continue into the overnight period and well into tomorrow afternoon as the main area of prefrontal heavier rainfall will affect the northern half of the Alaska Panhandle. As the front moves in through tonight, increased winds 15-25kt along and north of a line from Sitka to Petersburg can be expected. There is a chance that LLWS may become more of a factor between FL 010-020 for Juneau as we go through tonight into tomorrow...but for now JAWS is showing fairly uniform directional winds and speeds in that zone and higher resolution models indicate the same through tonight. && .MARINE...A gulf force front is expected to continue to work into the panhandle this evening. Gales have been observed at buoy 46082 near Cape Suckling and are expected to continue into the overnight period. Seas have also responded to these increased winds and have started to trend up at the Cape Suckling and Cape Fairweather buoys. Farther to the south along the outer coast, winds are expected to remain around 20-25 kt. Winds through the Inner Channels have also been coming up during the day and are expected to reach 20-25 kt as well during the overnight hours tonight headed into the morning hours tomorrow. Winds are expected to decrease as this feature moves out but will increase again as the next wave approaches the panhandle for Monday into Tuesday. && .HYDROLOGY...The flood watch for the northern panhandle continues as confidence remains high that 3-5" inches of rain with some localized higher amounts possible. With the rain and warm temperatures, river rises are expected due to snow and ice melt at upper elevations as well as rain accumulations. Water temperatures are expected to drop with the snow and ice melt added in. River flows could also rise to the level that they could become hazardous to recreate on. Smaller creeks and streams could also rise fairly quickly due to the rainfall. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...Flood Watch from Sunday morning through Monday evening for AKZ318>321-325. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ644-651-652-664-671-672. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-031>033-053-641>643- 661>663. && $$ SHORT TERM...Fielding LONG TERM....Jones AVIATION...Garmon MARINE...Fielding HYDROLOGY...Fielding Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau