997
FXAK67 PAJK 141318
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
518 AM AKDT Sun Jul 14 2024

.SHORT TERM.../Through Sunday night/...No change in the overall
forecast when compared to yesterday. The moderate to heavy rain
continues here in SE AK. The bulk of the rain is still expected to
fall in the central and northern half for most of the day today.
Still can`t rule out some light rain in the southern areas though,
so kept PoPS lower for those areas, when compared to the northern
regions.

Later tonight, the band of moisture will start to track southward,
so the southern regions will start to see the rain move in but
total rainfall amounts will be much less than the amounts that
will fall in the north.

Winds will be gusty around the panhandle but the strongest winds
will be found in Skagway, with gusts nearing 45 mph.

.LONG TERM.../Monday onward/...Continuing from the short range,
heavy rain will last into Monday from a front draped across the
panhandle. For more information on flooding concerns, see the
hydrologic section below and the issued flood watch. A short wave
impulse is likely to ride up the backside of the front and at
least bring continued moderate rain to the northern panhandle.
Overall the pattern will remain active into midweek with a
possible transition to showers.

Ensemble model guidance is consistent in terms of keeping an
active pattern for mid week and beyond, however there is
increasing spread in terms of the timing and strength of these
systems. All in all wet and at times potentially windy conditions
can be expected for the panhandle throughout the week in general,
with temperatures to remain seasonably cool.

&&

.AVIATION...

Mixed bag of flight conditions across the panhandle this morning
from LIFR in the northern portion to isolated VFR across the
southern fringes of the area. Flight conditions will remain
predominate IFR to MVFR through the TAF period across the
northern and coastal panhandle, primarily along and northwest of
a line from Klawock to Petersburg, with CIGS AoB 3500ft and
intermittent VSBYs down to 2SM to 4SM through this evening.
Strongest winds should remain confined to the northern panhandle,
with sustained winds up to 20kts and isolated gusts up to 40kts
through this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...The strongest marine winds are moving into the inner
channels early this morning. 20 to 25 knots are being reported but
as the energy tracks inland, the wind speeds should decrease to
around 10 to 15 knots by tonight.

Waves will also subside through the day and tonight periods as
well. So strongest waves are happening early this morning, reports
around 8 to 10 feet, with subsiding waves through the rest of
today.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A Flood Watch remains in effect through Monday
evening for portions of the northern panhandle along the Icy
Strait corridor and northern inner channels, including Juneau.
Heaviest rainfall expected through Sunday with totals approaching
3 to 5 inches by Monday evening. This rainfall, in combination
with elevated snow levels exacerbating snow melt, will result in
excess runoff leading to elevated rivers, creeks, and other low-
lying areas.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Flood Watch from 10 AM AKDT this morning through Monday evening
     for AKZ318>321-325.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-031>033-053-641>644-651-
     652-661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GJS
LONG TERM....STJ
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...GJS

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