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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
357 FXAK67 PAJK 111344 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 544 AM AKDT Sun Aug 11 2024 .SHORT TERM...Cloud cover will rebuild on Sunday as another system begins moving into the panhandle. Widespread rain will reach Yakutat in the upcoming hours, and anticipate that rain will reach Juneau through the afternoon, though a few showers moving ahead of the system may bring some light rain to areas by late Sunday morning. Yakutat will receive the greatest amount of rainfall, but only hitting around a one year return interval for a 12 hour period. By Sunday evening, the rain will have spread across the northern panhandle and the outer Gulf Coast, though chances of rain will be lower for areas south of Sitka. Expect areas on the west face of mountains to receive the greatest rainfall, with Mendenhall Valley in particular having an increased chance for moderate rainfall from 7 PM onwards through the night. Through early Monday morning rain will attempt to spread into the southern panhandle, though there will be significantly less rainfall for this area than across the northern half of SE AK. Expected rainfall totals of between 0.4 to 0.8 inches for the northern panhandle down to Sitka, while the south will see upwards of 0.2 inches. Winds across many land- based locations will increase on Sunday as the system moves through the area, with breezy conditions possible for some locations. .LONG TERM...At the start of the week, a 500mb trough will finish its trek through the area. So the day will start off with light rain but as the day goes on, the rain will move east and out of the area. On the heels of that trough, another trough will dig in behind it on Tuesday , keeping the chances for rain in the forecast for mainly the northern panhandle. The southern panhandle may end up being on just enough of a ridge that would keep the bulk of the rain at bay. Wednesday into the weekend, 500mb ridging sets up, giving the panhandle another few days of dry weather. Inner channel marine winds look to be around 5 to 15 knots for most of the area. The main exception is Lynn Canal, where stronger winds may end up setting up at times. The NBM is hinting at wind speeds around 10 to 15 knots, which usually translates to winds around 20 to 25 knots. So while the marine forecast for Lynn Canal is set to 15 to 20 knots, the confidence is low and may need to be increased as we get closer. For temperatures, according to the EURO Ensemble and GEFS 850mb temps, it could be a chilly morning Wednesday. 850mb temps could dip to near 2 to 3C, which is cooler than normal for mid-August. So went with temps in the low to mid 40s for parts of the central and northern panhandle. Temps in the 40s aren`t hugely impactful but it`s a reminder than cooler temps are on the way. && .AVIATION...Instrument conditions prevail along the immediate outer coast from north of Kruzof Island all the way to Cape Suckling beginning later this morning. Elsewhere...workable under visual rules, but ridge tops will be obscured in places. Watch out for LLWS and mod turbulence along the outer coast north of Sitka with worst conditions north of Cape Spencer. && .MARINE...Winds will increase across the inner channels and outer coastal waters as the next system arrives. Gales are expected for parts of the northern Gulf on Sunday extending down to Cape Spencer due to barrier jet forcing. Elevated winds will enter the inner channels through the latter half of Sunday, barring ocean entrances, where strengthening winds will arrive sooner. Northern Lynn Canal will remain at or near small craft wind speeds through Sunday. Greatest areas of uncertainty are western Icy Strait and Cross Sound, which could remain light to up to 10 knots from perpendicular uniform S/SE flow aloft and out along the coastline. Additionally, the Tarr Inlet in the far upper reaches of Glacier Bay has the potential to blow up to 20 knots from a tight gradient. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ651-652-672. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-053-643-644-663-664-671. && $$ SHORT TERM...NC LONG TERM....GJS AVIATION...Fritsch Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau