358
FXAK67 PAJK 091354
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
554 AM AKDT Tue Jul 9 2024

.SHORT TERM...Surface analysis and satellite imagery show low
pressure meandering N towards the SW gulf. Guidance remains in
good agreement with rain developing across the region through
tonight. Latest guidance increased precip totals significantly
with heavy rain progged overnight into Wed. Trended precip totals
upward, but below higher end guidance. Expect heaviest rainfall
over the central panhandle (Icy thru Sumner) with 24 hour totals
generally 1/2 to 1 inch. Also expanded categorical PoPs across
the panhandle overnight. Other adjustments to inherited forecast
were focused on marine winds as described below.

.LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Monday/...
Overview: Low pressure system over the AK Gulf keeps an active
weather pattern for SE AK. Mid week front producing moderate
rainfall. Precip chances continue into the weekend with onshore low
and additional system tracking in.

Surface low over the gulf and associated weather front will cross
over the region Wednesday. Long fetch of moisture along the front
from the south as depicted by IVT values will produce periods of
moderate rainfall. 24 hour rain totals of half an inch to up to an
inch Wednesday. Daily amounts are above normal but still with in
typical range for this time of year. For now no major impacts
anticipated but some rises in rivers and streams likely. As the low
weakens to an open wave trough late week followed by a ridge of high
pressure the resulting on shore flow will keep post frontal shower
activity going. The next system drops down over the Aleutians but
weakens just as another stronger system moves in following a similar
path. Beyond the weekend ensembles show the active pattern continues.

&&

.AVIATION... Conditions remain mainly VFR and MVFR as rain moves
into the panhandle today. The outer coast will see IFR ceilings,
but Yakutat is the only area that will remain mostly in MVFR with
IFR due to low ceilings as it is the first location to see
precipitation. As the evening approaches, rain will be seen across
the panhandle. This creates lower ceilings from scattered cloud
decks making conditions mainly MVFR with potential for IFR.
Petersburg, Wrangell, and Ketchikan will be the last to get
precipitation leaving more uncertainty for when scattered clouds
become MVFR ceilings.

&&

.MARINE...Forecast challenges this morning remain over Clarence
Strait where flow is split with N 2/3 seeing northerly winds
around 15kt and S 1/3 reporting S 5-10kt. Expect the N winds to
take over this morning before shifting to the SE this afternoon.
Other change was to increase winds in Chatham with obs overnight
reporting 15-20kt southerlies. S-SE winds at 5-15 kt will prevail
across the inner channels by this afternoon.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM....PRB
AVIATION...EAB/BC
MARINE...BC

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