183
FXAK67 PAJK 121341
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
541 AM AKDT Mon Aug 12 2024

.SHORT TERM...Improving conditions with the current front over
the central to southern panhandle exiting later this morning.
Behind the front, a shift to largely lighter, westerly winds and
some clearing with a ridge slowly building through the morning
hours. One uncertainty in regards to the marine forecast is how
long winds near Eldred Rock will stick around. Westerly mid level
winds with southerly low level winds will diminish over the
morning hours. However, warming temperatures and a stout
temperature gradient will likely lead to an increasing pressure
gradient, particularly with a ridge building in the central
panhandle. Otherwise, drier conditions behind the front from north
to south though this morning. An upper level low late tonight
brings in some additional energy for additional rainfall spreading
in from the west. While mid levels look relatively dry, low level
moisture could support some showers.

.LONG TERM.../Tuesday to Friday/...
Quick hits for next week:
-Rainy start for some in the mid-range. Dry weather late week for
 all.
-Moderate chances (40-70%) of rain linger into Tuesday with PoPS
 decreasing Wednesday, leaving Thursday and Friday dry.
-Marine winds will be strongest in the Lynn Canal area, at around
 10 to 20 knots at times with some evidence showing near 25 knot
 wind speeds possible. The rest of the inner channels look to have
 wind speeds around 5 to 15 knots.
-Daytime temps will be near normal with a warming trend for the
 second half of the week.
-Nighttime temps will be cooler than normal with morning lows in
 the 40s for much of the central panhandle.

Details for next week:
On the heels of an exiting trough, a 500mb low will move towards the
northern Gulf, keeping chances for rain in the forecast for mainly
the northern panhandle. The southern panhandle may end up being on
just enough of a ridge that would keep the bulk of the rain at bay.
Wednesday into the weekend, 500mb ridging sets up, giving the
panhandle another few days of dry weather.

Inner channel marine winds look to be around 5 to 15 knots for most
of the area. The main exception is Lynn Canal, where stronger winds
may end up setting up. The NBM is hinting at wind speeds around 10
to 15 knots, which usually translates to winds around 20 to 25
knots. So while the marine forecast for Lynn Canal is set to 15 to
20 knots, the confidence is low and may need to be increased as we
get closer.

For temperatures, according to the EURO Ensemble and GEFS 850mb
temps, it could be a chilly morning Wednesday. 850mb temps could dip
to near 2 to 3C, which is cooler than normal for mid-August. So went
with temps in the low to mid 40s for parts of the central and
northern panhandle. Temps in the mid 40s aren`t hugely impactful but
it`s a gentle reminder of the cooler temps on the way.

&&

.AVIATION...A front moving SE through the central and southern
panhandle will exit in the morning hours. Along the front, drops
in VIS and CIGs down to MVFR and some IFR are likely. Behind the
front, clearing skies and improving conditions with the
possibility of sea breezes. Uncertainty lies in how fast clouds
will clear out, as if they clear out faster than expected, then
sea breezes will likely develop. Finally, as skies clear going
into tonight, chances for fog development, particularly the
central and southern panhandle, increase.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-641>644-661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM....GJS
AVIATION...Fritsch

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau