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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
183 FXAK67 PAJK 121341 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 541 AM AKDT Mon Aug 12 2024 .SHORT TERM...Improving conditions with the current front over the central to southern panhandle exiting later this morning. Behind the front, a shift to largely lighter, westerly winds and some clearing with a ridge slowly building through the morning hours. One uncertainty in regards to the marine forecast is how long winds near Eldred Rock will stick around. Westerly mid level winds with southerly low level winds will diminish over the morning hours. However, warming temperatures and a stout temperature gradient will likely lead to an increasing pressure gradient, particularly with a ridge building in the central panhandle. Otherwise, drier conditions behind the front from north to south though this morning. An upper level low late tonight brings in some additional energy for additional rainfall spreading in from the west. While mid levels look relatively dry, low level moisture could support some showers. .LONG TERM.../Tuesday to Friday/... Quick hits for next week: -Rainy start for some in the mid-range. Dry weather late week for all. -Moderate chances (40-70%) of rain linger into Tuesday with PoPS decreasing Wednesday, leaving Thursday and Friday dry. -Marine winds will be strongest in the Lynn Canal area, at around 10 to 20 knots at times with some evidence showing near 25 knot wind speeds possible. The rest of the inner channels look to have wind speeds around 5 to 15 knots. -Daytime temps will be near normal with a warming trend for the second half of the week. -Nighttime temps will be cooler than normal with morning lows in the 40s for much of the central panhandle. Details for next week: On the heels of an exiting trough, a 500mb low will move towards the northern Gulf, keeping chances for rain in the forecast for mainly the northern panhandle. The southern panhandle may end up being on just enough of a ridge that would keep the bulk of the rain at bay. Wednesday into the weekend, 500mb ridging sets up, giving the panhandle another few days of dry weather. Inner channel marine winds look to be around 5 to 15 knots for most of the area. The main exception is Lynn Canal, where stronger winds may end up setting up. The NBM is hinting at wind speeds around 10 to 15 knots, which usually translates to winds around 20 to 25 knots. So while the marine forecast for Lynn Canal is set to 15 to 20 knots, the confidence is low and may need to be increased as we get closer. For temperatures, according to the EURO Ensemble and GEFS 850mb temps, it could be a chilly morning Wednesday. 850mb temps could dip to near 2 to 3C, which is cooler than normal for mid-August. So went with temps in the low to mid 40s for parts of the central and northern panhandle. Temps in the mid 40s aren`t hugely impactful but it`s a gentle reminder of the cooler temps on the way. && .AVIATION...A front moving SE through the central and southern panhandle will exit in the morning hours. Along the front, drops in VIS and CIGs down to MVFR and some IFR are likely. Behind the front, clearing skies and improving conditions with the possibility of sea breezes. Uncertainty lies in how fast clouds will clear out, as if they clear out faster than expected, then sea breezes will likely develop. Finally, as skies clear going into tonight, chances for fog development, particularly the central and southern panhandle, increase. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-641>644-661>664-671-672. && $$ SHORT TERM...NC LONG TERM....GJS AVIATION...Fritsch Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau