427
FXAK67 PAJK 082258
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
258 PM AKDT Mon Jul 8 2024

.SHORT TERM...
Quick hits:
-Quiet weather slowly comes to an end later tonight.
-Clouds increase tonight with rain moving in tomorrow.
-Winds remain on the lighter side until the front arrives
 Tuesday, then brief elevated winds are possible, as the front
 passes, before relaxing for Tuesday night.

Expected Weather impacts:
-Light rain could cause rivers to rise, but river levels will
 remain well below flood stages
-Brief elevated marine winds are possible along the front as it
 moves inland.

Satellite imagery over the gulf shows an area of low pressure
spinning near the intersection of 50N and 150W, about 800 miles SW
of Prince of Wales Island. Way out there for now but this low
will be our weather maker for the next few days as it moves into
the gulf.

500mb ridging will stay in place over the panhandle for tonight.
As the previously mentioned low tracks northward, into the central
gulf, the ridge will slide east into Canada.

Surface low pressure center will move northward and the
associated front will approach the panhandle. The front looks to
arrive along the coast late tomorrow around, say around 9AM to
noon. The front will try to track into the panhandle but at the
same time, the low will spin and pull the front away from the
panhandle. So forcing from the front will be limited, keeping
winds around 5 to 15 knots and rain rates on the lighter side.

As far as the rain goes, for the northern half of the panhandle,
kept `chance` (30 to 50% PoPS) wording in the forecast for Tuesday
morning with rain `likely` (60% to 70%) by Tuesday afternoon.
Raised PoPS to 80+% by Tuesday night. For the southern half,
chance PoPS start sliding into the forecast by Tuesday afternoon
with `likely` by Tuesday night. 80%+ PoPS don`t show up till early
Wednesday morning.

.LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Monday/...
Overview: Low pressure system over the AK Gulf keeps an active
weather pattern for SE AK. Mid week front producing moderate
rainfall. Precip chances continue into the weekend with onshore low
and additional system tracking in.

Surface low over the gulf and associated weather front will cross
over the region Wednesday. Long fetch of moisture along the front
from the south as depicted by IVT values will produce periods of
moderate rainfall. 24 hour rain totals of half an inch to up to an
inch Wednesday. Daily amounts are above normal but still with in
typical range for this time of year. For now no major impacts
anticipated but some rises in rivers and streams likely. As the low
weakens to an open wave trough late week followed by a ridge of high
pressure the resulting on shore flow will keep post frontal shower
activity going. The next system drops down over the Aleutians but
weakens just as another stronger system moves in following a similar
path. Beyond the weekend ensembles show the active pattern continues.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions continue across most of the panhandle
this afternoon with the exception of Yakutat where CIGs have been
bouncing between VFR and MVFR with the occasional IFR. These
conditions are expected to continue into the evening and overnight
hours as clouds continue to move into the area as the low to the
south continues to work northward. Most places should stay VFR
during this time with the exception of a few places that might
drop to IFR/LIFR. Near the latter half of the TAF period, MVFR
CIGs are expected to become more prevalent due to the increase in
clouds. Most precip should hold off for most locations with the
exception of the NE Gulf coast which could see rain before other
locations.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GJS
LONG TERM....PRB
AVIATION...SF

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