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FXAK67 PAJK 020642 AAA
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1042 PM AKDT Tue Jul 1 2025

...Evening Update and 06z Aviation Discussion...
No major changes and the short term forecast has remained on
track with just a few adjustments to wind speeds and direction
within the inner channels. N. Lynn Canal continues to have
stronger winds, specifically near Eldred Rock into Taiya Inlet.
Increased winds in this area to 15 to 20 kts and will continue
with a strengthened pressure gradient. Otherwise, light rain
continues as a low remains over the panhandle.

&&

SHORT TERM...
A vertically stacked low will continue to stagnate and spin over
the central panhandle Tuesday, gradually weakening and sliding
southeast through the day Wednesday. As a result, light and
occasionally moderate rain showers will continue to impact the
panhandle Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. As of this
discussion showers are primarily peppering the central panhandle.
Convection will slacken overnight before building once more
Wednesday with daytime heating. Heavier showers capable of rapid
drops in visibility and erratic winds remain possible in early
evening Tuesday and could form Wednesday afternoon as well.

For the southern panhandle, a break from showers is expected to
continue through Tuesday evening, before the weakening low slides
southeastward bringing showers back late Tuesday and through the
day Wednesday. Similar to Tuesday, some showers that develop could
be heavier due to orographic enhancement, but most are expected
to be light. Cloud cover and showers has limited temperatures to
upper 50s and low 60s Tuesday, with some chance for more warming
Wednesday, but even better chances heading towards the weekend.
For more information on the holiday weekend coming up, see the
long term discussion.

LONG TERM...
Key messages:
- A drier trend is expected this weekend with times of light showers
  still expected.
- Temperatures slightly increase to the end of the week into the
  weekend.
- The next low pressure system enters the gulf at the start of next
  week.

Details: Precipitation chances diminish into the weekend as an area
of weak high pressure remains over the eastern Gulf of Alaska. Even
with diminishing precipitation chances, that does not mean that the
panhandle will remain completely dry. Isolated light to moderate
showers will continue across the panhandle. Minimum QPF is expected
with no impacts. Along with light showers, an upper level low will
continue to bring increased cloud cover with broken to overcast
skies. Temperatures at the end of the week begin to increase to near
typical values for this time of year with maximum temperatures in
the mid to high 60s. Low temperatures will remain in the low to mid
50s to end out the week.

Toward the end of the weekend, a low will move north from the
southern gulf increasing precipitation rates. The heaviest
precipitation currently looks to be more focused on the northern
panhandle than the central and southern areas. Another low pressure
moves across the gulf early next week bringing widespread moderate
to heavy rain. Winds with this system look to increase along the
eastern gulf to fresh to strong breezes. With this low pressure
system still a week away, we will continue to monitor it`s
development.

&&

AVIATION...
Widely varying flight conditions across the panhandle this
evening as weak surface low remains over the southern and central
panhandle with scattered showers an overcast skies overspreading
the area.

Starting with the far northern panhandle TAF sites Haines, and
Skagway, anticipating best flight conditions through the period
with predominant VFR conditions and CIGs AoA 4000ft, near calm
winds overnight increasing to near 15kts and isolated gusts up to
25kts through Wednesday afternoon. Brief period of MVFR CIGS
possible 10z to 16z for Haines, returning to VFR by 18z Wednesday.

For TAF sites along the Icy Strait Corridor including Yakutat,
Gustavus, and Juneau, anticipating initial low- end VFR to low-
end MVFR flight conditions with CIGs AoB 4000ft and intermittent
visbys down to 3 to 5SM through Wednesday evening, decreasing to
predominate MVFR to IFR with CIGS AoB 2500ft by 12z Wednesday,
brief period of CIG driven LIFR flight conditions possible through
12 to 16z. Winds will be near calm and variable overnight,
increasing to around 5 to 10kts through Wednesday afternoon.

For TAF sites along and south of Frederick south, including Sitka
and Petersburg southward, expecting flight conditions to remain
deteriorated overnight with MVFR or worse flight conditions
expected with CIGS AoB 2500ft and visbys down to 1 to 3SM. Into
Wednesday morning, winds will be near calm and variable with
another morning of likely IFR to LIFR development with CIGS AoB
1000ft and areas of fog limiting visbys, medium to high forecast
confidence. Expecting improvements to predominate MVFR conditions
for southern panhandle TAF sites through 22z with winds increasing
to around 10kts or less.

&&

MARINE...
Outside: A ridge of high pressure is building over the eastern
gulf Tuesday. This is causing W-NW winds along the outer coastal
waters of about 10kt with combined seas of 4ft or less. Buoys are
showing a S-SW swell with a 14 second period. This pattern
persists over the coming days while the ridge axis shifts east
along the coast and becomes broader with little pressure gradient
going into Friday. Lower pressure starts to encroach the central
gulf from the west Friday into Saturday causing winds to turn out
of the SE and start trending up 10-20kt.

Inside: A trough of low pressure lies over the central inner
channels, Northern Chatham area as of this afternoon. This is
causing some varied wind directions and some showers that have
occasional gusts of 15-20kt (Scull Island), but then sustained
winds drop back to about 10kt. Sunshine to the north is causing a
sea breeze with winds of 15-20kt in Taiya Inlet near Skagway.
Otherwise most winds are 5-15kt. After evening sea breezes, winds
will trend down overnight and be fairly light and variable by
Wednesday morning. Expect W-SW sea breezes to pick up across the
north again in the afternoon to around 15kt. This pattern of light
morning winds and afternoon increases continues through the week.
Trouble spots will likely be: Taiya Inlet, Cross Sound, Rocky
Island, and Young Bay.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...EAB/NM
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM....EAB
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...Ferrin

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