590
FXAK67 PAJK 072215
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
215 PM AKDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.SHORT TERM.../through Monday night/...

Quick hits:
-Quiet weather continues.
-Clouds linger with some marine layer clouds returning tonight to
 parts of the northern half of SE AK.
-Winds remain on the lighter side.
-Inner channel marine winds will be 5 to 15 knots, decreasing to 5
 to 10 knots by Monday morning. Northern Lynn Canal could see wind
 speeds increase back to 10 to 15 knots Monday afternoon while
 elsewhere remains around 5 to 10 knots. Gulf winds will be
 light, increasing late Monday night to 15 to 20 knots along the
 front as the front tracks northward.

500mb ridging will stay in place over the panhandle during most of
the short term forecast period. Surface high pressure in the gulf
and general surface ridging over the panhandle will slowly weaken
through Monday night.

All this ridging means quiet weather continues into Monday. Clouds
will be limiting factor for tomorrow`s afternoon temps, but
expecting temps in the 60s to 70s, upper 70s for areas around Prince
of Wales Island!

Marine winds won`t be too bad, around 5 to 10 knots with isolated
ares of 10 to 15 knots - seas around 1 to 3 feet.

Late Monday night is when the front will approach the panhandle.
During this time, PoPS will begin to increase.

.LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Sunday/...
Overview: Low pressure system enters the AK Gulf bringing an active
weather pattern back to SE AK. Front moving in mid week producing
moderate rainfall. Precip chances continue into the weekend with
onshore low and additional system tracking in.

Surface low moves up from the SW into the western AK Gulf by
Tuesday. The associated weather front should reach the panhandle
coast by Tuesday evening. While the front doesn`t have a robust
structure as depicted by latest model runs it does have a long fetch
of moisture from the south as depicted by IVT values. This should
produce periods of moderate rainfall with 24 hour rain totals of
half an inch to up to an inch Tuesday and Wednesday. This values
still with in typical range for this time of year so for now no
major impacts anticipated. As the low weakens to an open wave trough
late week followed by a ridge of high pressure the resulting on
shore flow will keep post frontal shower activity going. The next
system drops down over the Aleutians but weakens just as another
stronger system moves in following a similar path. Beyond the weekend
ensembles show the active, mostly wet pattern trucking on.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR and some MVFR conditions continue for this
afternoon as marine layer clouds have continued to break up more.
Some areas are still holding onto clouds such as portions of the
Icy Strait corridor and Yakutat as well as locations offshore.
Some clouds are expected to return this evening but current
thinking is that coverage may be reduced from previous nights.
Headed into the latter half of the TAF period, conditions are
expected to remain clear as high pressure starts to give way to a
low entering the gulf as the TAF period comes to an end.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GJS
LONG TERM....PRB
AVIATION...SF

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