775
FXAK67 PAJK 042328
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
328 PM AKDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.SHORT TERM.../ through Friday night / Overall the short range
forecast is not seeing much change. The ridge of high pressure
over the eastern and northern gulf remains in place. South of the
gulf the vertically stacked low will persist and drift SW into
the north Pacific. Widely scattered showers ( 20% or less ) will
continue to impact portions of the northern panhandle into Friday.
Southern panhandle, has a better sky clearing pattern so more sun
and warmer temperature for the southern third. The northern
portions will slowly dry out and warm into Friday.

.LONG TERM...Overview: High pressure ridge over the AK Gulf
remains in place into the weekend keeping overall quiet weather.
Increasing probability of rain & wind next week.

High pressure ridge over the Eastern Gulf continues to expand
Saturday with areas drying up from south to north. While
persistent onshore flow around the northern half of the panhandle
will keep cloud cover through Saturday, does not look ample
enough to produce any substantial rainfall. Winds will remain
mostly light to up to 10 knots with the exception of the Cape
Spencer area and the northern Lynn Canal area, which will enhance
up to around 20 knots.

On Sunday and Monday, the ridge will strengthen with anticyclonic
flow aloft strengthening as well. The result is a clearing of skies
throughout the panhandle with temperatures in most areas hitting
above 70 degrees. Naturally, typical sea breezes will develop, and
areas around Point Couverden, Cross Sound, and Northern Lynn Canal
will increase wind speeds in the afternoon. Otherwise, enjoy the
calmer weather before clouds and potentially rainy and windy
pattern sets in mid week.

As for model preference for this forecast, while the NBM was used as
a base for the forecast, blended preference towards a blend
between the 12z GFS and 12z Euro. These models matched relatively
closely to their ensemble counterparts, and offered increased
confidence for a drier solution. One particular note for the far
extended (day 6) is the potential for a windier system to move
into the panhandle. EFI tables are beginning to show a shift of
tales of 0 with 80% of members agreeing. What all this means is
there is potential for higher than normal wind gusts for this time
of year.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions continue across the panhandle with some
occasional MVFR ceilings have been reported during the day today.
Overall, conditions are expected to continue through the evening
and overnight hours. Some marine layer is expected to develop
during the overnight hours, especially across places that have
seen lowered CIGs during the previous night and morning hours
today. Otherwise, flying conditions should be fairly benign with
the exception of potentially lowered ceilings and afternoon sea
breezes.

&&

.MARINE...No significant systems in the area. Clouds will help
diminish sea breeze impacts. Anticipate wind speeds of up to 20 kt
for parts of the outer coastal waters, northern Lynn Canal, and
ocean entrances.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bezenek
LONG TERM....NC
AVIATION...SF

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