584
FXAK69 PAFG 061018
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
218 AM AKDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Cool and wet pattern continues over much of the state
through the weekend. The Interior will see rain likely this
morning and continuing into Sunday. Northwest coast and from
Galena north will see rain likely today. The Brooks Range will
see a rain/snow mix today into Sunday.

.DISCUSSION...
Upper Levels and Analysis...Models are in good agreement
regarding PoPs for the Interior over the weekend. A strong
shortwave will move across the Bering Strait and into the Northern
Interior today. Westerly flow over the Interior will become more
southwesterly by this evening. This is a good set up again for
wetting rains over much of the Interior. Another piece of energy
will enhance rainfall over the Interior on Sunday. This shortwave
is slow moving and rain chances will linger over the Interior on
Monday. Another upper low drops down from the Arctic Monday night
into Tuesday bringing more precipitation to the west coast.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Windy conditions return today but under advisory level. The
strongest winds appear to be in the AK Range passes this evening
through Sunday morning. The main area of concern will be near
Isabel Pass where wind gusts may be as high as 40-50 mph. For
this reason, AKZ849 will have a wind advisory through 06z
tonight.

Rain, possibly heavy at times develops over the Central Interior
again this morning and persists into Sunday. Another 0.50 to one
inch expected through Sunday afternoon. Some areas could see more
than one inch. Rain will cause river rises but no flooding is
expected at this time. Rain chances will linger into Monday.

West Coast and Western Interior...The next round of precip hits
northwest Alaska and areas from Galena north today into Sunday
morning before tapering off. Monday`s rain chances stay south of
Galena. Nonetheless, rainfall totals through Monday are around
0.25-0.50" in the Seward Peninsula and 0.50-1.00" in the Western
Interior with the higher elevations potentially over 1 inch.
Another front drops down from the Arctic Monday night into Tuesday
bringing more precip to the west coast.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Widespread rainfall continues today with the heaviest holding
south of Utqiagvik. Rainfall amounts around a tenth of an inch are
expected in Utqiagvik with the rest of the North Slope and Brooks
Range around 0.50 to 1 inch. Temps cool today and there could be
a rain/snow mix, or a complete changeover to snow from the Brooks
Range northward this evening into Sunday morning. Accumulating
snow is not expected along the coast or in the Arctic Plain, but
locations above 3000 feet in the Brooks Range may see a slushy
coating of snow. It will be difficult to accumulate anything given
the previous warm temperatures but highest elevations near Atigun
Pass could see 3 to 5 inches along the Highway. Otherwise, colder
weather continues on Monday with the chance for snow showers.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Looking towards the end of next week, ensembles still diverge a
bit, as expected, but it is leaning towards slightly warmer
temperatures in the east, closer to seasonal norms and
cooler/wetter in the west/north. Isolated thunderstorms could
return to the Interior by end of next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Slightly elevated water levels will continue south of the Seward
Peninsula this weekend. The highest water levels are expected at
Koyuk with 4-5 feet of water level rise through this weekend.
Those with items on the beach should continue to take precautions
as water levels remain high until the beginning of next week.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Another round of wetting rains arrives this morning in the
Western Interior and spreads over the Central Interior. Rain,
possibly heavy at times develops over the Central Interior
this afternoon and persists into Sunday. Another 0.50 to one inch
expected through Sunday afternoon. Some areas could see more than
one inch. In terms of wind, southwest winds do increase today in
the White Mountains and along the Steese Highway, east of Twelve
Mile Summit, where wind gusts to 35 mph are anticipated. Southerly
flow strengthens in the AK Range passes today, with gusts of 35
to 45 mph expected, potentially hitting 50 mph in the eastern
Alaska Range.

.HYDROLOGY...
Expect continued rises on rivers draining the Brooks Range from
recent heavy rain, including, but not limited to, the Wulik,
Kobuk, Noatak, and Koyukuk Rivers and smaller creeks and streams.

In the Interior, rain is going to be moving through each day
through the weekend as well with the highest rainfall amounts
upwards of 1.00-2.00". The highest amounts should be expected in
the higher terrain. This may also lead to rises in some rivers and
streams.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ849.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802-850-851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ854.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
&&

$$

gjm