765
FXAK69 PAFG 180814
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1214 AM AKDT Thu Jul 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Gradual drying trend the next couple days with rapidly warming
temps Friday and through the weekend as a strong upper level ridge
builds across the Mainland. 80s are likely by Monday for most of
the Interior as summer makes a triumphant return.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
There is a 550 dam upper low currently over the Kuskokwim Valley,
with this feature digging south. This is inducing south flow over
the Alaska Range with showers over parts of the AK Range and S
Interior. A shortwave trough is crossing the W Arctic and moving
east, with a piece of energy moving south as it acts to "kick out"
the aforementioned low which had been in place for several days.
Westerly low level winds are moving into the West Coast which is
beginning to transport marine stratus into the Bering coast. The
Mainland is sandwiched between to strong ridges, one 572 dam ridge
over the Bering, and another 580 dam interior ridge over W Canada.

Model and Forecast Discussion...
Models are clustered tightly for the next several days as waves of
energy move across the Arctic and ridging aloft builds as the
Bering and Interior ridges mentioned above merge into one strong
upper high over the Mainland by this weekend. It will be drying
out with warming temps, so we favored a NAM nest blend for
stronger winds over the Arctic, with a blend to NBM and MOS
guidance for warmer temps inland.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Showers over the S Interior will lift northeast and will form into
heavier afternoon showers with embedded isolated thunderstorms
from the White Mountains eastward to the ALCAN. Upslope flow will
continue to support showers over the AK Range, as well. Friday is
clearing out and drying with warming temps, along with north winds
to 20 mph in the Alaska Range. Any showers are relegated to the
far E Interior near the ALCAN. Saturday is continued dry and
warmer as temps shoot above seasonal norms for the first time in a
while, region wide, with widespread upper 70s to low 80s.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Westerly onshore flow has commenced, which means there will be
extensive stratus and some fog along the immediate West Coast.
There will be a few stray isolated showers today over the
Interior, but otherwise, it will be dry pretty much through the
weekend with warming temps inland as a ridge aloft builds in.
Across the Chukchi coast, expect periodic strong southwest winds
25 to 40 mph, beginning today and continuing into Friday, with
another bout of blustery southwest winds with the next front on
Saturday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
A front is moving east across the Arctic coast and N Slope, with
that front currently moving through Utqiagvik, but will fall apart
as it moves toward Prudhoe Bay. Southwest winds will increase over
the W Arctic later today as a strong low moves over the higher
Chukchi Sea, with gale force winds likely over the SW Arctic coast
later today into Friday. That same front will bring very warm
temps to Prudhoe Bay and E half of the N Slope, with widespread
70s likely. This front will clear into Canadian waters Friday
night with brief high pressure forming over the E Arctic Sat, with
yet another front moving to the W Arctic Sat bringing more
southwest winds.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Global numerical models and their ensemble suites are all pretty
locked into the idea of strong ridging forming over the Mainland
late this weekend and lasting into early next week, with the ECMWF
and its ensemble mean the most aggressive in building in the
strongest ridge, with heights of 581 dam, which is the highest
heights aloft of the summer. This should bring in a stretch of
well above seasonal normal temps, with widespread Interior 80s,
and possibly some localized 90 degree temps over the Yukon Flats
Sunday through maybe Wednesday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Isolated wet thunderstorms again today mainly over the E Interior
from the Upper Chena basin to the Fortymile Uplands, and maybe the
E Alaska Range. More isolated wet thunderstorms over the E Brooks
Range. Otherwise, today is another slightly cooler day before
rapid drying Friday through the weekend for most of the Interior.
No thunder is expected Friday with west winds stabilizing the
atmosphere, with only a slight chance for isolated wet thunder
over the far SE Interior on Sat. The bigger story is drying and
warming, with mid to upper 70s over most of the Interior by Sat
and upper 70s to low 80s Sunday. The lowest min RH will be over
the Yukon Flats.

One concern will be blustery southwest from the Yukon Flats to
the south slopes of the Brooks Range today and Friday. It will not
reach critical conditions, but it is worth noting it will be
drying and warming and a bit blustery up north.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The Tanana River remains near action stage at Fairbanks, currently
around 23.3 feet. This level will remain fairly steady as warming
temps will likely promote additional high elevation snowmelt and
glacial melt. Otherwise, no concerns with drying trends across the
Mainland through early next week.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ809.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-812-817-854-857-858.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851-856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ853.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.
&&

$$

Ahsenmacher