048
FXAK69 PAFG 190814
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1214 AM AKDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warming and drying trend through the weekend as the Interior will
come under the influence of ridging aloft. This means that folks
who thought summer was already over will be reminded it isn`t
quite over yet. It will also be quite warm today over the Arctic
Coast with temps into the 70s from Prudhoe Bay east.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
A massive 516 dam arctic low persists over the Chukchi Sea to the
North Pole this morning. There is a migratory subtropical low over
the W Aleutians near Shemya, with heights around 548 dam. There is
a broad upper low over the Gulf of AK with heights around 554 dam.
A strong Bering ridge is nosing into the West Coast, although that
is mostly being realized as low clouds and west winds along the
immediate coast. A shortwave trough is moving east off the
Chukotsk Peninsula, with near gales this morning just offshore of
the W Arctic coast.

Model and Forecast Discussion...
No change in thinking from yesterday, with ridging aloft slowly
building heights over the Mainland into early next week. This will
mean warming and drying over most of the Mainland, along with
diminished thunderstorm chances due to the stabilizing nature of
high pressure aloft. Gales over the W Arctic continue into today,
with those same southwest winds bringing warm temps to the E
Arctic and N Slope. Favored models are hi-res NAM nest for
southwest winds over the northern half of the state as strong
fronts cross the Arctic coast. Otherwise, we favored NBM for temps
which are doing well with the expected warming trend.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Some patchy morning fog over the river valleys will quickly
transition to mostly sunny skies and temps rebounding to seasonal
norms. A stray shower over the SE Interior and E Alaska Range is
possible, otherwise it will be dry and warming Interior wide
through the weekend as temps approach 80 by Sunday, and even
higher early next week. Wind wise, there will be blustery
southwest winds today from the Yukon Flats north, with a north
wind in the Alaska Range.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Westerly onshore flow has brought stratus and some fog to the West
Coast, with near gales over the NW Arctic just offshore of the
Chukchi coast. Warming over the Interior will continue through the
weekend, and it will eventually warm over the coast as well the
second half of the weekend as the onshore flow weakens from the
Seward Peninsula southward, with temps approaching and possibly
exceeding 70 by Sunday. The only chance for rain will be from
Kivalina north as weak systems clip that area.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Southwest-west winds over the Arctic have brought warming temps,
with 60s over the E Arctic yesterday, and 70s expected for today.
Gales over the W arctic will weaken this evening as the front
shifts offshore. Another front will move to the W Arctic Friday
and induce more southwest winds. Rain shower threats look minimal
but will be possible from Utqiagvik westward as these fronts move
east.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
No change in forecast thinking as Monday will start off hot over
the Interior with a strong 580 dam ridge in place. An easterly
wave will be undercutting the ridge, bringing thunderstorm chances
to the AK Range and SE Interior. It currently looks like the
ridging aloft will hold at least into midweek, although
thunderstorm chances will also increase over the Interior as a
thermal low forms. Thus, hot through Wednesday before the ridge
gradually breaks down. By Friday it looks like the ridge is
weakened with a return to a wet southwesterly flow.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Southwest winds of 25 to
35 knots will bring elevated water levels of 1.5 to 2 feet above
the normal high tideline to the W Arctic coast from Wainright to
Utqiagvik today and this evening. Minor erosion is possible due
to high wave action.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Drying and warming for the next several days for pretty much the
entirety of the Interior. Southwest winds to 15 mph today over the
Yukon Flats to the S Slopes of the Brooks Range. Min RH falls into
the 30 % range for the E half of the Interior into next week.
Temps peak Monday and maybe Tuesday with mid to upper 80s, and
maybe a 90 degree reading in the Yukon Flats. With increasing
warming aloft, thunderstorms look unlikely except a few stray
isolated storms over the SE Interior this weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The Tanana River remains near action stage at Fairbanks, currently
around 22-23 feet. This level will remain fairly steady as
warming temps will likely promote additional high elevation
snowmelt and glacial melt. Otherwise, no concerns with drying
trends across the Mainland through early next week.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-807-851-856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810-853.
     Gale Warning for PKZ811-857.
     Gale Warning for PKZ812.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ813.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ854.
     Gale Warning for PKZ858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.
&&

$$

Ahsenmacher