613
FXAK69 PAFG 202024
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1224 PM AKDT Sat Jul 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The heat is on as we continue to climb our temperatures each day
through the beginning of next week. While this is happening,
fronts from the west will move across the Arctic Coast allowing
for some rain. Along the West Coast, westerly onshore flow that
has brought stratus and fog will weaken and become offshore flow
this afternoon promoting warming temperatures and increased
sunshine. The exception being the Bering Strait Coast north to
Point Hope which will hang on to some areas of fog and stratus.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper Level Analysis...
The pattern that we`ve been monitoring for the last several days
is coming to fruition as a ridge over the Bering Sea traverses
east and merges with the ridge over Canada. This brings 500 mb
heights over the Mainland to about 578-581 decameters. Along the
North Slope, troughing dominates with westerly flow allowing for
three separate shortwaves to move through today, tomorrow and
Monday.

Surface Analysis...
A 1026 mb high over the Interior will remain nearly stationary
through midweek promoting dry and warmer weather for most of the
Mainland. Surrounding this high is a strong low in the Chukchi Sea
which will provide a few fronts along the Arctic Coast, a low over
the Western Aleutians and a low in the Gulf.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Hot and dry weather with high temperatures increasing through
Tuesday. Widespread temperatures in low 80s are expected by Sunday
with low to mid 80s on Monday. The warmest days will be Tuesday
and Wednesday as a few areas approach 90 degrees, especially in
the Yukon Flats. Isolated showers with a slight chance of PM
thunderstorms are relegated to the SE Interior near the ALCAN, and
over the Fortymile. However, it will most likely just be dry,
especially today, where forcing is weak and instability is low.
Expect north winds to continue in the AK Range Passes. The last
note is that there will be wildfire smoke from Canadian Wildfires
promoting hazy skies this week, and there is a potential for
increased wildfire activity compared to the last couple of weeks due
to hotter and drier conditions in the Interior.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Increasing sunshine and warming temperatures are expected today
and through the middle of the week. The previous onshore flow
along the coast is currently turning offshore and will be the
culprit for gradually clearing skies. The exception will be the
Bering Strait coast northward where southerly winds promote foggy
and cloudy conditions.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Warmer temperatures are expected in the Arctic Plain and Eastern
Brooks Range this week as a high builds. The coast will remain
seasonable with high temperatures in the low 60s, while inland,
70s to low 80s are expected through Wednesday. A few fronts will
impact the NW Arctic Coast with rounds of rain and clouds,
especially tomorrow and Monday. The stronger front Monday may
bring rain chances into parts of the Arctic Plain as well.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Strong ridging over the Mainland will persist through Thursday
promoting warm temperatures and mostly dry weather south of the
Brooks Range. Thursday into Friday, the ridge should begin to
break down as a low tries to move in from the Bering Sea. This
looks to promote rain and cooler temperatures along the West
Coast and in the Western Interior on Thursday, then potentially
the Central Interior on Friday, and the Eastern Interior next
weekend.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No change in the forecast as ridging aloft builds in. Temps will
continue to rise this weekend into next week and min RHs will
continue to fall into the lower 30% range and possibly upper 20%
range over drier parts of the Interior. Temps rise into the low
80s on Sunday and mid 80s on Monday. The hottest temperatures
occur Tuesday and Wednesday with the potential for near 90 degrees
in the Interior Valleys, especially around the Yukon Flats. Winds
are fairly light with only some 10 mph winds from the southwest
over the Yukon Flats/South Slopes of the Brooks Range, and north
winds to 15 mph in the Alaska Range passes.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The Tanana River remains near action stage at Fairbanks,
currently around 22-23 feet. This level will remain fairly steady
as warming temps will likely promote additional high elevation
snowmelt and glacial melt. Otherwise, no concerns with drying
trends across the Mainland through early next week.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810.
     Gale Warning for PKZ811.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ813.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ856-857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858.
&&

$$

Bianco