Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
315 FXAK69 PAFG 051030 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 230 AM AKDT Fri Jul 5 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Some drier weather returns today, though we aren`t completely out of the woods. Rain, mist and areas of fog are blanketing Northern Alaska today, but there will be some improvement from west to east as we move through the day, especially from Fairbanks west. Daily rain chances continue each day through the weekend and say it ain`t snow! Yes, there is a chance for snow on the North Slope Saturday evening into Sunday but accumulations are not likely outside of some potential slush. Winds continue to be strong today, especially in the higher terrain and we do have a wind advisory through 10 PM today for gusts to 45 mph in the White Mountains and higher terrain south of the Yukon River. && .DISCUSSION... Upper Levels and Analysis... Models initialized fairly well at 00z but we are seeing higher heights on the Utqiagvik radiosonde than what is currently modeled. This could mean that the low in the Arctic is weaker/slower, or the ridging in the NPAC extending into AK is stronger. Given that we are seeing very similar heights on the models compared to the sounding in Nome, Kotzebue and even Cold Bay, it is unlikely that the ridge is stronger. The most likely outcome is that the low in the Arctic is weaker or slower to move in, which will only make minor impacts to the timing of precipitation. Otherwise, the aforementioned high in the Central NPAC has remained nearly stationary since yesterday, the low in the southern Gulf has also remained nearly stationary and westerly flow continues over much of the Mainland. Surface Analysis... What we were expecting yesterday in terms of rainfall panned out quite well with widespread rainfall totals around 0.25-0.50" for much of the Interior and nearly an inch in the higher terrain. Otherwise, expect rain continue as westerly flow persists this morning, then it will gradually clear this afternoon from west to east with a few breaks in the clouds possible from the Central Interior, west. The North Slope will have periods of fog and rain as well today with widespread rain moving in tonight as a front drops south and east from the Arctic. Temperatures will be cooling through the weekend on the North Slope, while the Interior and West coast remains pretty stationary with rain expected everyday also. Central and Eastern Interior... Rain and breezy conditions continue today with parts of the area drying out this afternoon, especially the valleys from Fairbanks west. The higher terrain will hang on to rain showers most of the day. Tonight looks to come with much drier weather with winds diminishing. However, breezy conditions return tomorrow but gradually weaken on Sunday. The strongest winds appear to be in the AK Range passes Saturday evening through Sunday morning. The main area being focused is from Isabel Pass to Delta Junction where wind gusts may be as high as 45-50 mph. A wind advisory may be needed. Otherwise, each day through Monday comes with a chance of rain, and it may be a bit heavy Saturday into Sunday as a couple of systems move through from west to east. Rainfall totals are quite high through Monday with many areas seeing 0.50-1.00" and the higher terrain seeing 1.00-2.00" of rain. A pretty significant difference from last night is that the heaviest rain appears to have shifted farther south over the southern Interior due to the waves of energy aloft being farther south and this will have to be monitored. West Coast and Western Interior... Wind and rain subsides a bit today as light rain exits to the east this morning. Rain showers will most likely remain over the area but they will be isolated with most of them sheltering over the higher terrain. Saturday`s forecast has changed a bit with the most recent trends showing a stronger piece of energy moving through and a front behind that providing rain most of the day from the Seward Peninsula east. The secondary front that comes through Saturday night may have some heavy rain with it and gusty winds. Overall, rain chances persist through Sunday, though it may end up being a nice afternoon north and west of Galena as the front passes through. South of Galena still holds high chances for rain, heavy at times through Sunday night. Monday`s rain chances may stay from Galena south, though there is some uncertainty. Nonetheless, rainfall totals through Monday are around 0.25-0.50" in the Seward Peninsula and 0.50-1.00" in the Western Interior with the higher elevations potentially over 1 inch. North Slope and Brooks Range... Widespread rainfall continues today with the heaviest holding south of Utqiagvik. Rainfall amounts around a tenth of an inch are expected in Utqiagvik with the rest of the North Slope and Brooks Range sitting around 0.30-0.70" through tonight. Heading into Saturday, especially the afternoon and evening, temperatures will be dropping off pretty significantly with high temperatures in the 30s to near 40 from the Coast to the N. Brooks Range on Sunday. There is a chance for a rain/snow mix, or a complete changeover to snow from the Brooks Range northward Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Accumulating snow is not expected along the coast or in the Arctic Plain, but locations above 3500 feet in the Brooks Range may see a slushy coating of snow. It will be difficult to accumulate anything given the previous warm temperatures and rain. However, if there are periods of heavy snow rates, it can accumulate on colder surfaces briefly before melting shortly after. Otherwise, colder weather continues on Monday with the chance for snow showers. Extended Forecast Days 4-7... Rainy and cooler conditions will continue in the extended with several rounds of rain anticipated across the state. A strong 592 decameter high in the central NPAC will persist through the weekend, weaken and then gradually shift south next week leading to broad, longwave troughing next week which will likely keep rain chances and cooler temps in play. Looking towards the end of the week, ensembles still diverge a bit, as expected, but it is leaning towards slightly warmer temperatures in the east, closer to seasonal norms and cooler/wetter in the west/north. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4... As SW winds persist, expect sea level heights to remain about 0.5-2 feet above the normal high tide line this weekend from Nome South. The highest water levels are expected at Koyuk with 4-5 feet of water level rise through this weekend. Those with items on the beach should continue to take precautions as water levels remain high until the beginning of next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Rain continues this morning in the Interior before gradually drying out from west to east. The exception will be in the higher terrain where showers likely remain. Most valley locations will dry out in the afternoon. Otherwise, another round of wetting rains arrives tomorrow morning in the Western Interior and during the afternoon in the Central and eastern Interior. The only areas that the highest chance of missing out on the wetting rain will be south and east of Fairbanks in the Tanana Valley and the Yukon Flats. Rainfall totals elsewhere will be around 0.10-0.50" with higher elevations around a half inch. Another round of rain then arrives Saturday night and moves from the northwest to southeast with an additional 0.25-0.50" from Circle to SW AK. In terms of wind, southwest winds do increase today in the White Mountains and along the Steese Highway, east of Twelve Mile Summit, where wind gusts to 45 mph are anticipated. Not to be left out, southerly flow strengthens in the AK Range passes today into Saturday, with gusts of 35 to 45 mph expected, potentially hitting 50 mph in the eastern Alaska Range. && .HYDROLOGY... Expect continued rises on rivers draining the Brooks Range from recent heavy rain, including, but not limited to, the Wulik, Kobuk, Noatak, and Koyukuk Rivers and smaller creeks and streams. In the Interior, rain is going to be moving through each day through the weekend as well with the highest rainfall amounts upwards of 1.00-2.00". The highest amounts should be expected in the higher terrain. This may also lead to rises in some rivers and streams. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ834. PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802>805-807-850-852-853-856. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ808-809. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812-857. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-817. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ854. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858. && $$ Bianco