062
FXAK68 PAFC 150036
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
436 PM AKDT Sun Jul 14 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

It has been a rainy past couple of days across Southcentral
Alaska. Yesterday, Anchorage saw 1.83 inches of precipitation
fall, which ranks as the 6th highest one day total for July 13th on
record. If you include Sunday`s rainfall thus far, that puts
Anchorage`s two day total at 2.21 inches - the 7th greatest two
day total on record for any two consecutive days of the year.

Additional rain is possible through tonight, though accumulations
should be much lighter. Southcentral is expected to remain in an
unsettled pattern through at least midweek, with the upper low
over western Alaska to make slower southeastward progress than
previously forecast. Within southwesterly flow will be the passage
of additional shortwaves across Southcentral, keeping rain
chances in the forecast through at least Wednesday. Expect cooler
conditions with highs in the 50s where cloud cover and rain
persist, and highs in the 60s where any clearing occurs. The best
chance for areas seeing sun tomorrow will be across the Copper
River Basin while showers are expected to lift across the Kenai
Peninsula into the Mat-Su Valleys. Yet another trough is forecast
to move through Southcentral on Tuesday with another round of rain
forecast for the region.

BL

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

A broad upper level low pressure system will loiter over southwest
Alaska through most of the forecast period, resulting in overall
cooler and wetter conditions. In addition, small craft winds and
waves will continue over Bristol Bay this evening and will
diminish by tomorrow morning. Wave heights are currently around
5-7 feet, but will subside as the evening and overnight
progresses.

Over the Bering, a shortwave low will provide a quick round of
precipitation for the western and central Aleutians on Monday
before exiting into the North Pacific. Behind the shortwave, a
ridge of high pressure begins to build in over the western Bering
Monday evening and slowly shifts eastward through Wednesday
afternoon. Model guidance is currently struggling on the placement
of the ridge over the central Bering that will have an impact of
the features around it. To the east, the upper low over Southwest
will either remain situated over the area or be pushed further
inland towards Southcentral and the interior. To the west, a new
low pressure system with ample moisture will either be kept west
of the Aleutians/Bering or be east enough to start impacting the
chain late Wednesday.

-BS

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday)...

The persistent upper level low over Southwest Alaska will slide
slowly southeastward as a ridge of high pressure moves across the
Aleutians toward the Mainland. As the upper level low moves into
the eastern Gulf and an elongated front forms along Prince
William Sound coastline, the continued likelihood that showers
and cloudy conditions in  Southcentral will persist through the
weekend remains high. However, the greatest chance for steady
rain showers is in the Cooper River Basin into the weekend as
weak waves move through the area. The Aleutian ridge moving over
the mainland will result in drying conditions and increasing
temperatures across Southwest through the weekend.

DJ

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...The large low over southwest Alaska continues to send
shortwaves through through the area. One of these shortwaves is
tracking northward through Cook Inlet this afternoon and will
continue to bring in periods of moderate rain and MVFR conditions
until it passes through either late this afternoon or early
evening. While areas farther south in Cook Inlet cleared out
after the passage of this wave, it looks more likely for clouds to
pack along the mountains in Anchorage and bring the chance for
MVFR ceilings through the evening. Another shortwave will track up
the Inlet this evening and bring another round of showers with
MVFR potential late this evening into the overnight hours. Periods
of gusty southerly winds will continue into Sunday.

&&


$$