182
FXAK68 PAFC 152351
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
351 PM AKDT Mon Jul 15 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: This
afternoon through Wednesday)...

The short term forecast remains largely unchanged. Southcentral
is expected to remain in an unsettled pattern through at least
Wednesday as an upper-level low lingers over much of the Mainland,
with various shortwaves rotating around the low. Expect several
periods of rain showers throughout the next several days. The
greatest chances for precipitation will be Prince William Sound
and up Cook Inlet through the Susitna Valley. Copper River Basin
will remain on the drier side as southerly winds persist through
the Copper River Valley. Looking ahead to the end of the week and
into the weekend, a high pressure ridge builds in from the west
and pinches off areas of low pressure to the north and south.
Thus, conditions are expected to trend drier and warmer than the
cooler and wetter conditions we`ve seen for much of this month so
far.

rux / Fenrich

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

An upper-level low pressure system anchored southeast of the
Seward Peninsula is bringing a rainy period to Southwest Alaska
with light onshore flow. Currently, a weak ridge is situated over
the Central Bering Sea, bringing benign weather to much of the
Aleutians along with widespread stratus coverage and areas of fog.
Looking forward, multiple shortwaves will cycle over Southwest
tonight and allow rain showers to persist, diminishing from west
to east by Wednesday morning. The ridge over the Bering is
expected to grow through midweek, spreading the stratus deck
and/or fog along with the associated benign pattern to an
increasing portion of the Aleutians and portions of Southwest
Alaska. The next system approaches the Western Aleutians early
Thursday morning, bringing another round of winds and rain to the
Aleutians.

-CL

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

On the Alaska Weather map, an elongated upper level low extends
North to South through Interior Alaska. A closed low in the bottom
of this low near Kodiak Island weakens as it moves across and out
of the Gulf of Alaska for late Saturday. Over the Bering, a
somewhat broad ridge moves into Western Alaska on Saturday, and
links up with a Canadian ridge by Sunday. This reduces the
likelihood of rainfall over the West and Interior and brings in
some warmer temperatures. In the far Western Bering, another East
Asia low and front pushes into the Central Aleutians and Bering
through Monday. The associated front spreads locally heavy rains
and gusty surface winds less than gale force over the Pribilofs,
Aleutians and Bering through the beginning of the workweek.
Southwest Alaska and the Alaska Peninsula will have improving
weather conditions through the weekend. Model agreement remains
good through the period, with only the transient troughs and
shortwaves rippling through the pattern. Southcentral Alaska up
to the Alaska Range will see a lesser chance of wetting rainfall
over the weekend, but lingering showers across the coastal zones
remain with some onshore flow.

- Kutz

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Weak upper level short-waves and light rain showers will
transit overhead this afternoon and evening. Southeast flow will
keep ceilings in the VFR category, though there could be brief
periods where the ceiling drops below 5000 feet. A stronger
short-wave will approach from the south tonight, with steady light
rain developing by 12Z. While the mean flow remains out of the
southeast expect gradual saturation of the low levels and
lowering ceilings. Ceilings will likely hover in the low end VFr
to high end MVFR range late tonight through 00Z tomorrow
afternoon. The short-wave will then exit to the north, bringing an
end to precipitation and allowing ceilings to lift.

&&

$$