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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
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621 FXUS63 KABR 102329 AAA AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 629 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - High confidence in hot and muggy conditions Friday through Sunday. High temperatures will be in the 90s (5-10 degrees above average) with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. This will result in heat index values in the mid and upper 90s with a few spots to 100 degrees during the afternoon hours. - Temperatures will moderate with lower humidity for the first half of next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 622 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Aviation discussion updated below for the 0Z TAFs. && .SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Much of the anticipated convection today has remained in MN, as many CAMs showed earlier today. We did have a couple showers develop near KATY and drift south out of the CWA, but aside from that, nothing else in our area currently. Still not out of the question to see some more development in our far southeast area, so will leave slight chances (20%) in the forecast. As the night progresses, surface high pressure will begin to shift east of the area and allow for light southerly winds to return. These winds will increase through the day Thursday, eventually becoming breezy across central SD. Warm air advection will also ramp up, especially over central SD where 850mb temps climb to around +20C to +22C. Readings are a few degrees cooler over the eastern CWA, but that said, mid to upper 80s will be common over the east on Thursday, with readings around 90 degrees or into the low 90s across central SD. Light south breezes should be maintained Thursday night with a bit of a pressure gradient in place. With these winds, lows should stay in the mid 60s for many locations. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 The overall upper flow pattern remains pretty consistent the latest model guidance compared to previous runs. An expansive mid level high will remain essentially centered over the Four Corners region of the southwest CONUS through the first portion of this period. Across our region, the associated ridge will try and nose towards us but periodic mid level waves in the quasi-zonal flow across the Northern Rockies/High Plains and Northern Plains will more or less keep that at bay. Some of these disturbances could pose a risk for scattered convection across the Dakotas late in the week and over the course of the weekend. Timing and location of any such activity is hard to pin point at this time, but trends have been pointed to locales farther north and east in the region for seeing the best chances for this as weaknesses in the mid level ridge could be more pronounced across ND, northwest MN and northeast SD/west central MN. NBM PoPs will continue to advertise up to 15-20% for our northern/northeastern zones for Friday and again during the course of the latter half of the weekend. The bigger story line in this period will be the increasing heat and humidity that still anticipated to build late this week and persist through the weekend. Ensemble mean 850mb temperatures on Friday range from +18C to +25C from east to west across the CWA. On Saturday, the range climbs to +21C to +26C and +23C to +28C on Sunday respectively. Under this pattern, we definitely will realize high temperatures in the 90s, with perhaps a few locales getting closer to the century mark, especially Saturday and Sunday. With dew point temperatures in the 60s, close to low 70s...this will be our areas first real stretch of downright muggy conditions for the season. At this point, heat index values will approach or exceed 100 degrees for some of our zones, especially across our southern/southwestern zones on Saturday and perhaps on Sunday as well. Will continue to message this increasing heat in the HWO, Weather Story and Social Media products. Some relief looks to work back into the region early-mid next week. Another successive couple of mid level disturbances with the passage of a frontal boundary or two will give our area some better chances for precip and somewhat cooler, less humid conditions. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 622 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG Prevailing VFR conditions can be expected for all terminals through the valid taf period. Will continue mentioning FEW250 to account for the thin smoke across the area. Southerly winds will develop on Thursday with gusts of 20 knot possible for KPIR and KMBG. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...SD SHORT TERM...TMT LONG TERM...Vipond AVIATION...SD