154
FXUS63 KABR 210212 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
912 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated smoke from Canadian wildfires will filter out the
  sunshine through Wednesday.

- Fog is expected to develop late tonight and again late Sunday
  night and linger into the mornings, especially east of the James
  Valley.

- There will be daily precipitation chances (20 to 50 percent)
  through Monday (mainly afternoon and evening activity).

- Confidence is increasing for hot temperatures returning by the end
  of the week and next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 910 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Continuing to see a few small thunderstorms over parts of central
South Dakota this evening. Also monitoring an area of storms
currently tracking south over parts of eastern North Dakota that
may reach the area during the overnight hours. No changes made to
winds or temperatures at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Elevated smoke is being dragged into the northern Plains from
Canadian wildfires by the deep upper trough and persistent upper
level northerlies. It should stick around through Sunday night and
even persist into mid week.

Shortwave energy in the upper trough along with abundant low level
moisture is helping to generate afternoon/evening showers and
thunderstorms. Even with the smoke, temperatures have managed to
climb well into the 80s today, easily hitting convective temps and
the showers have popped accordingly. This pattern will persist and
should have more shortwaves to work with on Sunday. No severe
weather is expected due to really weak shear.

High levels of llm will lead to fog development late tonight into
Sunday morning and again Sunday night into Monday morning. Can`t
rule out vsby down around a mile or less along I-29 and the Coteau.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

The first part of the long term is expected to be relatively quiet
with northerly flow dominating the upper level pattern. Once we get
to Wednesday, an area of high pressure moves north to south across
western SD and a low pressure system slides southeast over MN and
WI. This will keep our area in northerly flow. Thursday, a shortwave
trough moves along the ridge to our west and pushes it into our area
for the weekend and the end of the period.

There is a chance (30% or less) for some showers and maybe an
isolated storm or two Monday afternoon. After that, any PoPs more
than about 25% stay out of our CWA. This could change for Wednesday
if the low moves farther west than expected. However, over the past
few runs, model tracks haven`t changed much at all.

Temperatures are now trending from right around average to about 10
degrees above average by the end of the term. Highs are expected to
be in the low 90s by Thursday. Lows by the end of the period are
also expected to be around 10 degrees above average, only decreasing
to the high 60s or low 70s overnight. Winds are expected to be
around or less than 10 mph and gusts less than 15 mph Monday and
Tuesday, then return to our normal speeds from Wednesday on.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 623 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Scattered thunderstorms will affect parts of the area this
evening, but will die off after sunset. There may be some MVFR
vsbys in fog late tonight into early Sunday morning, main along
and east of the James River Valley. Scattered thunderstorms are
expected again Sunday afternoon and evening.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Parkin
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...Parkin